Congressional and Senate Elections in Missouri

Congressional Elections Underlying dynamics – MO no longer a bellwether in presidential elections (?) – reapportionment and redistricting potential openings for challengers – especially in 3 rd, 4 th, 5 th, 6 th but MCs pick voters before voters pick MCs – From Obscurity to Oblivion large (751,000), inorganic districts

Redistricting

Candidate Match Ups Missouri U.S. House Races 2012 DistrictIncumbent (or incumbent party) Mean % Vote ChallengerExperience 1Lacy Clay (D)75.6Robyn Hamlinno elective experience 2Ann Wagner (R)(63.0)Glenn Koenenno elective experience 3Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)63.7Eric Mayerno elective experience 4Vicky Hartzler (R)50.4Teresa HensleyRaymore City Council (1988) 5Emanuel Cleaver (D)59.28Jacob Turkno elective experience 6Sam Graves (R)61.3Kyle YarberGladstone City Planning Commission 7Billy Long (R)63.4Jim Evansno elective experience 8Jo Ann Emerson (R)66.5Jack Rushinno elective experience x = 62.9

Fundraising Missouri U.S. House Races Fundraising as of Late June 2012 District Incumbent (or incumbent party) $ RaisedChallenger$ Raised 1Lacy Clay (D)$618,000Robyn Hamlin$0 2Ann Wagner (R)$1,950,000Glenn Koenen$9,820 3Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)$742,000Eric Mayer$0 4Vicky Hartzler (R)$1,100,000Teresa Hensley$492,000 5Emanuel Cleaver (D)$890,000Jacob Turk$207,000 6Sam Graves (R)$1,000,000Kyle Yarber$41,000 7Billy Long (R)$695,000Jim Evans$4,300 8Jo Ann Emerson (R)$1,100,000Jack Rushin$13,000 $1,000,000 $92,000

National Congressional Picture very few competitive seats – RCP: 26 toss ups 19 lean Democrat, 16 lean GOP – NYT: 22 toss ups 28 lean Democrat, 33 lean GOP – Sabato: 14 toss ups 20 lean Democrat, 23 lean GOP

MO Senate Race Claire McCaskill MO House ( ) Jackson Co. prosecutor ( ) MO Auditor ( ) 2004 candidate for governor 2006 defeated Jim Talent – 49.6% to 47.3% Todd Akin U. S. Army; Master of Divinity MO House ( ) U. S. House ( ) – 63% of vote on average won 6-way GOP primary – Akin: 36% ($2.2 million) – Brunner 30% ($7.4 million) – Steelman 29.2% ($1.4 million)

A Competitive Environment MO leans GOP at presidential level – GOP holds 6/8 House seats – GOP has large majorities in both state legislative chambers but … – popular incumbent Democrat in governor’s mansion – McCaskill is incumbent $3.5 million on hand v. $531,600 (mid June) – MO Senate races tend to be competitive 53.7% since 1990

Once having given a pig an enema “legitimate rape” comment (8/19/12) Akin had led in 8 previous public polls (RCP) – +5% – McCaskill hadn’t led since 2011 “most vulnerable senator” (USNWR) McCaskill has led in 7/8 polls since (RCP) – +4.6 – “likely Democrat” (Cook Report)

What Next? McCaskill has: – significant monetary advantage and growing: $5.8 million in second quarter – hard-hitting ads “what will he say next” Akin has: – stared down GOP establishment – new endorsements Newt, Santorum, DeMint, Bond, Blunt, Talent

State Elections, 2012

Missouri Gubernatorial Race

As of the end of September: Nixon had $6.3 million cash on hand Spence had $1.45 million cash on hand

Party Composition of the Missouri Senate,

Party Composition of the Missouri House,

Why It is Unlikely Control of the Missouri General Assembly Will Change ChamberNumber of Seats Number of Seats Where the Majority Party Averaged Less than 55% of the Vote from 2002 to 2010 Percentage of Seats Where the Majority Party Averaged Less than 55% of the Vote from 2002 to 2010 Senate House

Uncontested Seats in the Missouri General Assembly, 2012 Chamber Number of Seats being Elected Republicans Uncontested Republicans only Contested by Minor Party Democrats Uncontested Democrats only Contested by Minor Party Total Uncontested Races Senate (52.9%) House (50.3%)

Uncontested Seats in the Missouri Senate, majority party vote in 2012 uncontested Senate seats: Mean 68.9%, Median 66.4%, Minimum 56.3%, Maximum 89.0% Number of uncontested seats that are competitive (majority party has less that 55% of vote based on elections from 2002 to 2010): 0

Uncontested Seats in the Missouri House, majority party vote in 2012 uncontested House seats: Mean 68.7%, Median 65.4%, Minimum 52.5%, Maximum 96.8% Number of uncontested seats that are competitive (majority party has less that 55% of vote based on elections from 2002 to 2010): 8 (5 Republican seats, 3 Democratic seats)

Additional figures: - partyid and the vote by election - partyid and the vote, the range - turnout - gender gap - decision time - normal vote