Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 CRITERIA FOR IMPROVING BUSINESS IMPACT OF FORESIGHT AT DEUTSCHE BANK: LESSONS LEARNT OF MAPPING TRENDS Ingo Rollwagen Deutsche Bank Research

Ingo Rollwagen Think Tank of Deutsche Bank Group Criteria for Improving the Business Impact of Foresight in Deutsche Bank: Lessons Learnt in Mapping Trends Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA), 28th- 29th September 2006

Folie 3 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Contents Portraying foresight activities of Deutsche Bank Research Improving impact of foresight activities: Our criteria for foresight in business Criteria as regards to the content of foresight Criteria for the process of producing and delivering foresight A case study of foresight impact at Deutsche Bank: The DBR Trend Map

Folie 4 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Portraying foresight activities of Deutsche Bank Research

Folie 5 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Strategic Foresight in Banking: a Must The major role of a financial institution is to assess, transform, trade, and take on Structural changes in the socio-economic environment make these tasks even more demanding. risk. for both successful day-to-day business and the development of sustainable long-term strategies. Banks need systematic, global analysis of possible and likely futures

Folie 6 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR DB Research´s Task Providing input Encouraging the building knowledge-oriented structures in Deutsche Bank Building networks outside of Deutsche Bank

Folie 7 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Broad Spectrum of Issues in Deutsche Bank Research Current Megatopics: Global Growth Centres Emerging Markets (China, India) Demographic Challenge Digital Economy Energy European Integration More Growth for Germany

Folie 8 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Strategic Foresight within Deutsche Bank Research The MacroTrend unit of Deutsche Bank Research… provides foresight knowledge for the development of strategies and decision processes in Deutsche Bank, by analyzing the economic, societal, political and technological environments of the Deutsche Bank Group… … with a long-term perspective, … an interdisciplinary approach, … in regular exchange with experts and decision-makers from science, economy and politics, … a broad spectrum of methods…

Folie 9 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Improving impact of foresight activities: Our criteria for foresight success in business

Folie 10 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Criteria for improving impact of foresight: Content-wise Plausibility Convenience / Usability of results Inspiration Appropriate temporal perspective

Folie 11 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Criteria for improving impact of foresight: Processual Structured way of production and deliverance of foresight thinking High level of interaction / Inclusion in organizational procedures Ideational entrepreneurship Innovation as regards to communication Persistence Synchronization with the business organization

Folie 12 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR A case study of foresight impact: The Deutsche Bank Research Trend Map

Folie 13 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR qualitative analysis quantitative analysis Foresight at DBR with a broad spectrum of methods directed prognosisalternative futures Regression analysis Scenario- analysis GDP-Risk models System Dynamics Social-scientific analysis Trend projection Short-term- GDP-Prognosis

Folie 14 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR

Folie 15 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Lessons Learnt: Advantages of Mapping Trends The graphic mapping of trends (trend map) has following advantages: Speeding up foresight communication and diffusion Facilitating direct client interaction Increasing clients’ foresight autonomy Easing process integration and synchronisation Encouraging creative thinking

Folie 16 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Thank you for your attention! Looking forward to our discussion! More information: or

Folie 17 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR © Copyright Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research, D Frankfurt am Main, Germany. All rights reserved. When quoting please cite “Deutsche Bank Research”. The above information does not constitute the provision of investment advice. Any views expressed reflect the current views of the author, which do not necessarily correspond to the opinions of Deutsche Bank AG or its affiliates. Opinions expressed may change without notice. Opinions expressed may differ from views set out in other documents, including research, published by Deutsche Bank. The above information is provided for informational purposes only and without any obligation, whether contractual or otherwise. No warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information given or the assessments made. In the United States this information is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., a member of the NYSE, the NASD, NFA and SIPC. In Germany this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht. In the United Kingdom this information is approved and/or communicated by Deutsche Bank AG London, a member of the London Stock Exchange regulated by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of investment business in the UK. This information is distributed in Hong Kong by Deutsche Bank AG, Hong Kong Branch, in Korea by Deutsche Securities Korea Co. and in Singapore by Deutsche Bank AG, Singapore Branch. In Japan this information is approved and/or distributed by Deutsche Securities Limited, Tokyo Branch. In Australia, retail clients should obtain a copy of a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) relating to any financial product referred to in this report and consider the PDS before making any decision about whether to acquire the product.

Folie 18 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Backup Charts

Folie 19 Criteria for Improving Foresight Impact in DBR Trends depict long-term, directed changes in different environments in nature, societies, economies, technologies Trends are differentiated in respect to temporal breadth Macro-Trends reach back in the past and in stretch in the future 15 years Trends are selected in respect to their potential impact on economic growth and their stability Foresight in DBR: Analyzing and Mapping MacroTrends Temporal breadth of a Trend Macro-Trend 1990