Major factors influencing food security in Southern Africa GOSA 2011 Presented by Pieter Esterhuysen 09/03/11

Food security Food safety Food hygiene Malnutrition Hunger Underweight ?????

1 billion people do not have enough to eat = › populations of USA/EU/Canada Malnutrition is the worlds largest risk to health - greater than the combined risk of Aids/Malaria/Tuberculoses 98 percent of the world's hungry live in developing countries Women = 50% world's population, but 60 % hungry 10.9 million children under five die in developing countries each year 1 out of 4 children - roughly 146 million - in developing countries are underweight Lack of Vitamin A kills a million infants a year

Food security exists when all people, at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO) The concept of Food Security

International Food Security

World maize production and consumption

Food security in Southern Africa SSA has a serious food security problem  Up to 90 of food production is rain fed  35% of GDP  40% of exports  70% of employment  80% of staple needs  Up to 50% below poverty line  Pop. growth = +-2% › production growth  Thus – food gap is growing

Food Security AdequacyAcceptability Accessibility Availability Determinants of Food Security

Food security in Southern Africa Affordability = Can I get it when I need it? Availability = Is there enough?

 50% of our continents population earn $1 and less per day  Individuals are poor in our continent  Food security is in the first place a socio-economic issue More food is not = to less hunger/ more food security  Country (GDP/capita) vs. individual disposable income (Botswana = US$8 000 pa)  Economic growth (sluggish but picking up)  Unemployment rate (10% tot 60% ??)  Distribution of income and wealth  NGO and GO programmes Affordability

Action  NGO and GO programmes (food supply and supply driven)  Programmes to stimulate small scale production (360%)  Stimulate economic growth (poor people to share)  Land ownership issues and other policy issues  All other issues hampering development of the ag sector Affordability

Availability Availability ≠ local production Availability ≠ surplus in a country/region Availability of staple = sophisticated effective integration of the food value chain

Availability 1.Infrastructure Food Security demands safe storage Storage (distribution/local crop – 20%)  Support SGR  Bag focus  Lack of critical mass  Location and management  No specialised profit motive  Good growth (NGO and GO) Zam2 mil Zim3.5 mil Mal0.7 mil Moz0.045 mil Tan0.25 mil

Availability 1.Infrastructure Food Security demands a free flow of grains Road, rail and port Major problem East London/Durban/Maputo/Beira/Nacala/Mombasa Road and rail in the RSA ???? East West and North South corridors (SADC – China?)

Availability 2.Markets (Price discovery) Natural Food security demands transparent prices and base recognition  SAFEX  ZamACE  ACE (Malawi)  ZIMACE (liquidity/cash/trust/storage solution/Price?)

Availability 3.Status of trading community Food security demands solutions for time, location, access problems  Hated species  Solve the time problem  Solve the location problem  Solve the standardisation problem  Provide market access  Needs resources and risk  Enemy = gov. intervention/currency

Availability 4.Financing options Food security demands a well functioning commodity value chain (carry finance)  HIGH LOW SPREAD (FINANCING??)  Africa trade cash!  Lack of acceptable storage  Lack of liquidity  Lack of transparent prices  Lack of hedging options  Ownership arrangements - security

Availability 5.Government involvement Food Security ‘demands’ what? The market solved the RSA problem (transparent/stable playing field)  Intervention in prices  Intervention in trading options  Administration/policies (borders)  SGR (procurement and liquidation)  Based on trust problem (inward logistics/political sensitivity- Malawi elections – fertiliser, Zimbabwe aid distribution) Zim = 0.5 mil mt Zam = 0.2 mil mt Mal = 0.2 mil mt Tan = 0.1 mil mt Moz = 0.06 mil mt

Availability 6.Small scale vs. Commercial production Food security demands availability and affordability  Policies/investment focused commercial production  Formal inputs = import parity priced  Cannot compete in local markets  Provide tradable commodity – not affordable food  Increase small scale production???

CountryCleared Arable land Arable land cultivated Maize yield Total maize production SADC +Kenya -RSA 77 million Ha 31 %1.1 Mt/Ha 16 million Mt Food Aid = mt to 1.5 million mt Maize production in Southern Africa

Double hectares=+16 mil mt Double yields=+16 mil mt Halve post harvest losses= mt Total availability =62.7 mil mt Previous available=14.4 mil mt Maize production increase

Economic effect  Effect on region +- US$ 8 billion (+-R )  Effect on a household Old income =$80 New income=$360 Income increase = 350%

FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ANALYSED FOOD SECURITY CAN BE THE TOPIC TO PHILOSIFYING FOOD SECURITY CAN BE A POLITICAL INSTRUMENT FOOD SECURITY CAN BE TRADED FOOD SECURITY CAN PROVIDE PROFITS FOOD SECURITY COULD JUSTIFY THE EXISTANCE OF NGO’S ? FOOD SECURITY CAN BE ALL THESE THINGS BUT IN ESSENCE, FOOD SECURITY DISCRIBES THE BASIC STATE OF HUMAN KIND I CARE ABOUT THAT FOOD SECURITY