Peter Hayes Professor, International Relations, Nautilus-RMIT Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, USA Seoul October 18, 2010 Global Security and Complexity 1

Global Security: 1 st half of 20 th Century Fluidly Simple State-based security Classic Realist Balance of power politics Two world wars Anti-colonial wars to establish new states or reinstate pre-colonial states or empires 2

Global Security: 2 nd Half of 20 th Century Rigid Simplicity Cold War for 4 decades Bipolar structure covering entire planet Blocs and Alliances Balance of terror Spheres of influence Non-aligned states Contested zones (Korea) Wars of national liberation Very predictable…until the Soviet Union fell apart Bipolar system reconstituted around American hegemony for 10 years when the world spun apart 3

CC Adaptation: Reminder--Complex Systems Local processes may govern transitions of the state of the whole system due to dependence on the initial conditions or what is known intuitively as the “butterfly effect.” Due to their non-linearity, the effects of these interacting processes across scales, including positive and negative feedbacks, are inherently unpredictable.

21 st Century: Global Security Increasing Complexity – 13 dimensions Source: 5

Global + Resource Conflict 6

Global + Warfare 7

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Outside-In Approach: Wicked WMD-Insecurity Complex 16 Part Global Problem Outside-In Approach: Wicked WMD Insecurity Complex 20 Part Global Solution Perkovich et al,

Shift from Simple to Complex Security State -> {State + Market + Civil Society} State (military) -> {State + Military + Human + Ecological Security} Political -> {Political + Legal + Institutional Security} National -> {National + Local + Global + Individuals + Glocal + Networked Security} 10

Simple to Complex Global Problem-Solving Shift from Singular, sequential problem-solving to Multiple, simultaneous problem-solving For example 11

Outside-In Approach: “Sustainable Security” Conclusion (p. 29) Five macro-drivers of instability worsen each other and require simultaneous and integrated solutions Source: Oxford Research Group, June

Holdren: reduces this complexity to nexus: “energy-economy-environment dilemma” Poverty Nuclear Proliferation Pollution, Environmental Stress Climate Change Development Climate Change Energy 13

Global Problem-Solving Failures and Strategies Global Gridlock International treaties (too slow, too ritualistic) International regimes (non-binding, no enforcement) Mega-conferences (respond to cumulative failure to solve urgent problems, LCD consensus, dissensus, no followup) G7-8, 20 type groupings (process failures, not inclusive, disconnected from market and CS knowledge, vertical and time distance 40 global “multilateral” IGOs (constrained by paymasters, small funding, scapegoated) Global Solutions World Government: distill all the above into global gridlock; great powers dominant and entrenched or Networked governance (multisectoral, global issue, norm-based networks, fast, legitimate, cross-border, inclusive of diversity, internet-based + G20 specialized inter-governmental initiatives 14

Genesis of Modern Traditional Think Tanks (Rand, Hudson, IDA, CNA...) academic contract research advocacy party-affiliated “Keep an eye on those two.” 15

States Cram Complexity into a Few Bureaucratic Boxes 16

Enabling conditions: Internet + globalization 17

Key Concepts for Transnational Think Nets the information milieu of the global public sphere is the critical domain for policy articulation and implementation because it contains the common knowledge and shared reference points that are critical to successful negotiation seek to identify natural affines that share weak links solution to the “small worlds” problem 18

INFOAXIOM 2 Common Knowledge and Networks Speed of diffusion varies by weak-strong links (less processing, less distance, fastest communication in weakly coupled networks) 19

Transnational Think-Nets communicate across borders and behind the scenes speak truth to power top quality information and analysis Informational and analytic timeliness, accuracy, insight (especially early warning of pending events, emerging issues, or anomalies in conventional perspectives connectivity to networked policymakers. 20