The Conflict in Crimea

Access to the Black Sea, Sea of Azov, the Balkans, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea made the port of Sevastopol an extremely valuable and strategic possession for any empire or state. Crimea has therefore been controlled by:  Greek Empire  Roman Empire  Goths  Huns  Bulgars  Khazars  The State of Kievan Rus'  The Byzantine Empire The Kipchaks  The Golden Horde  The Ottoman Empire  In 1783, Katherine the Great conquered the Crimea which would lead to the Crimean War Occupiers of The Crimea

The Crimean War  Russian Empire vs: Ottoman Empire British Empire French Empire Austrian Empire  What did they want? Russia wanted to expand their empire The crumbling Ottoman Empire Wanted a buffer zone in between them and Russia (Ukraine) The British wanted to secure their access to the Mediterranean and stop Russian expansion The French wanted to rule the Christians in that area and stop Russian expansion Austria claimed neutrality, but actually ended up helping the coalition

Timeline of Events in Modern Crimea 1850 Crimean War ( ) Russian Revolution (1917) Crimea made part of the Soviet Union as Crimean autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic (1921) Occupied by Nazi Germany during WWII ( ) Stalin Deports the Crimean Tartars and Muslims to Central Asia (1944) Transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (1954) Soviet Union Collapses, Crimea becomes part of the State of Ukraine; Tartars begin to return (1991) Crimean Crisis (2014) Orange Revolution (2004)

Ethnic group 1897 census1939 census1959 census1979 census1989 census2001 census Number % % % % % % Russians 180, %No Data49.6% No Data 71.4% No Data 68.4% No Data 65.6% 1,180, % Ukrainians 64, % No Data 13.7% No Data 22.3% No Data 25.6% No Data 26.7%492, % Crimean Tatars 194, % No Data 19.4% No Data 0% No Data 0.7%No Data1.9%243, Ethnic Make-up of Crimea

Two sides (Viktor vs. Viktor) Pro- Russian Mainly of Russian descent Led by Viktor Yanukovych Wants closer ties with Russia Distrustful of Europe and the west, and wants less trade and interaction Pro-Ukrainian Of Ukrainian, Tartar, Cossack (and Muslim) descent Led by Viktor Yushchenko Wants Closer ties (trade agreements, military alliances, etc.) with Europe Distrustful of Russia; sees Russia as the Regional bully

 November 2004: Orange Revolution begins after reports of widespread vote-rigging in presidential election nominally won by pro-Russian candidate Viktor Yanukovych. Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko leads mass street protests and civil disobedience. Supreme Court annuls result of poll  December 2004: Opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko tops poll in election re-run. Rival candidate Viktor Yanukovych challenges result but resigns as prime minister. Orange Revolution 2004

 February 2010: Viktor Yanukovych is declared winner in presidential election, judged free and fair by observers. His main rival, Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, is arrested for abuse of power and eventually jailed in October 2011  21 November 2013: President Yanukovych's cabinet abandons agreement on closer trade ties with EU, instead seeking closer co-operation with Russia. Ukrainian MPs also reject a bill to allow Yulia Tymoshenko to leave the country. Small protests start and comparisons with the Orange Revolution begin.  Late November: Protests gather pace, as 100,000 people attend demonstration in Kiev, the largest in Ukraine since the Orange Revolution. Police launch first raid on protesters, arresting 35. Images of injured demonstrators raise international profile of the protests.  Early December: Protesters occupy Kiev City Hall and Independence Square in dramatic style, turning it into a tent city. Biggest demonstration yet sees 800,000 people attend demonstration in Kiev.  17 December: Vladimir Putin throws President Yanukovych an economic lifeline, agreeing to buy $15bn of Ukrainian debt and reduce the price of Russian gas supplies by about a third

 January: Parliament passes restrictive anti-protest laws. Days later, two people die of gunshot wounds as clashes turn deadly for first time. Third death reported as the body of high-profile activist Yuriy Verbytsky is found. Protesters begin storming regional government offices in western Ukraine.  February: All 234 protesters arrested since December are released. Kiev city hall, occupied since 1 December, is abandoned by demonstrators, along with other public buildings in regions  18 February: Clashes erupt, with reasons unclear: 18 dead, including seven police, and hundreds more wounded. Some 25,000 protesters are encircled in Independence Square.  21 February: President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders. Protesters take control of presidential administration buildings Parliament votes to remove president from power with elections set for 25 May Mr Yanukovych appears on TV to denounce "coup" His arch-rival Yulia Tymoshenko is freed from jail January - February 2014

 February: All 234 protesters arrested since December are released. Kiev city hall, occupied since 1 December, is abandoned by demonstrators, along with other public buildings in regions  18 February: Clashes erupt, with reasons unclear: 18 dead, including seven police, and hundreds more wounded. Some 25,000 protesters are encircled in Independence Square.  21 February: President Yanukovych signs compromise deal with opposition leaders. Protesters take control of presidential administration buildings Parliament votes to remove president from power with elections set for 25 May Mr Yanukovych appears on TV to denounce "coup" His arch-rival Yulia Tymoshenko is freed from jail  February: Parliament names speaker Olexander Turchynov as interim president. An arrest warrant is issued for Mr Yanukovych, and the acting president warns of the dangers of separatism. Members of the proposed new government appear before demonstrators, with Arseniy Yatsenyuk nominated prime minister. The elite Berkut police unit, blamed for deaths of protesters, is disbanded.  February: Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol. Unidentified gunmen in combat uniforms appear outside Crimea's main airports. At his first news conference since fleeing to Russia, Mr Yanukovych insists he remains president. February 2014

 Pro-Russian faction of the Crimean government takes control of the military ask President Putin for assistance.  Russian Troops aid Crimean militia and take control of Sevastopol, Feodosiya and other military bases in Crimea  Ukrainian military withdraws from Crimea  Crimea holds a referendum and votes to rejoin Russia  Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States voted to suspend Russia from the group of 8.  The UN General Assembly approved a resolution describing the Crimean referendum on 16 March as illegal. One hundred countries voted in favor of approving a UN General Assembly resolution declaring the Crimean referendum illegal and affirming Ukraine's territorial integrity. Eleven nations voted against, with 58 abstentions. March 2013

 Similar events are occurring in the city of Donetsk and other parts of Eastern Ukraine.  The Ukrainian government has accused the Russian government of further inciting rebellion against Ukraine  Ukraine has begun a military effort aimed at stopping the break away East.  Analyst report that the Russian military will also intervene to support rebellion in the East Recent Developments

 Who are the actors involved?  What are the causes of the crisis?  What are the predictions for the future?  What action (if any) is recommended? Analysis of the situation

Neo-Realist  Actors:  Russia,  Ukraine  Possibly the U.S. and E.U  Causes:  Russia wants to extend it’s influence thereby increasing its national security and… increase its relative power against the West  Ukraine wants to assert its sovereignty because it will lead to greater power and security in the region (relative gain against Russia). Wants to keep its relative power and sovereignty (versus Russia), so it forms greater ties with great powers in the west  Possibly the U.S. and E.U Control or decrease Russia’s regional power Gain relative power against Russia  Prediction: If the main actors seek to gain or maintain relative power; power game who wins? Russia wins. The possible losses from a conflict with Ukraine are small compare to the relative power they gain. Ukraine loses. The losses from a conflict with Russia are far greater than the gains of its eastern territories. The U.S. EU loses. The losses from a conflict with Russia are far greater than the gains of trade with Ukraine and stopping Russian influence in the region.  Course of action: Russia: Nothing. Strategy successful Ukraine: Strengthen ties with the West; distance itself from Russia (or the opposite) U.S. /E.U.: Strengthen ties with Ukraine; bolster military and/or send troops to Ukraine

 Actors:  Russia,  Ukraine  Possibly the U.S. and EU  Working through institutions  Causes:  Lack of institutions and cooperative effort  No clear international shared policy  The main actors can not see the absolute gains from cooperation  Prediction:  Will lead to a regional agreement or institutions  Ukraine may join existing security institutions like NATO or the EU  Course of action:  Continue cooperative non-military actions (sanctions, UN resolutions etc.) to pressure Russia into cooperating  Ukraine should form a coalition with regional countries (Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Georgia, etc.) to combine their strengths and pursue similar agendas Neo-Liberal

Constructivist  Actors: Pro-Russian factions Ethnic groups in Ukraine/Crimea Pro-Ukrainian groups Religious Groups European corporations and groups with economic interests in Ukraine Russian political circles U.S. political groups International and National Media  Causes: Shifting ethnicities, religion, culture and language over the last 250 years has led to tensions over the identity of the Crimea and Eastern Ukraine  Prediction: Predominant ethnic and culture groups will stabilize around current paradigm In the future shifting demographics in the region may again cause a new crisis  Course of action: Influence the strength (and populations) of cultural identities in the affected regions