Clean Cities / 1 Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels Tyler Svitak Clean Cities Manager

Clean Cities / 2 1.Clean Cities, Refuel Colorado Fleets 2.Alternative Fuel Benefits 3.Lifecycle Cost Factors –Electric –CNG/LPG 4.Fleet Analysis Example –Variable Fleet –Homogenous Fleet PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

Clean Cities / 3 Lower lifecycle cost Energy independence, stability Cleaner burning 2. ALTERNATIVE FUEL INFLUENCES

Clean Cities / 4 Alternative Fuel Benefits Lower Lifecycle Cost ROI Opportunities

Clean Cities / 5 LIFECYCLE COSTS Life cycle cost comparison factors: Unit price Delivery, shipping, transportation Fuel (increasing over time) Routine maintenance Cost of money over time (net present value) Resale value Price tag is just 1 factor

Clean Cities / 6 Higher incremental price tag Gain ROI through fuel cost reduction –CNG $2.12/gge, LPG $2.56/gge, Electricity $1.14/eGallon Fast ROI: –High VMT –High fuel consumption –Home base fueling Lifecycle Costs

Clean Cities / 7 Class 1: 0-6,000 lbs Plug-in Hybrid or Electric Passenger Vehicles -Gallons per year are low, so savings is low for CNG, LPG, etc. Classes 2 +3: 6,000-14,000 lbs CNG or LPG, bi-fuel Pickup trucks & work vans -No plug-in options in this class -Bi-fuel CNG or LPG options available -Good payback if annual VMT is high Classes 4-6: 14,001-26,000 lbs CNG or LPG Medium duty trucks School and shuttle buses Electric Medium duty truck/van -Good payback if annual VMT is high -Vehicle can be designed for tanks -CNG or LPG medium duty engines exist -Good if fleet VMT matches driving range -Low fuel/maint costs; fast charging options Class 7: 26,001-33,000 lbs CNG Short haul trucks, Refuse trucks, Transit buses -Natural gas heavy duty engines exist -Good payback if annual VMT is high -Vehicle design can fit CNG tanks Class 8: >33,000 lbs CNG/LNG Long-haul trucks -Fuel usage too high for CNG -Natural gas heavy duty engines exist -LNG required due to high fuel usage NO SILVER BULLET Alt Fuels most likely to succeed in each vehicle class: f

Clean Cities / 8 FUEL PRICE VOLATILITY Diesel Retail price $4.43/GGE (early 2008) Distribution and Marketing 26% 42% 9% 6% 18% Natural Gas Operations Maintenance Amortization Pipeline Electricity Taxes Electricity Retail price $1.14/eGallon 25% 30% 15% Fuel Costs Capital Costs Transmission and Delivery Taxes COST PER GAL $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $ % 21% 5% 10% Crude OIl Taxes Refining Distribution and Marketing Gasoline Retail price $3.77/GGE (early 2008) 75% 10% 5% 10% Crude OIl Taxes Refining CNG Retail price $2.10/GGE (early 2008) Source: US DoE EERE, EIA, and NGVA

Clean Cities / 9 Fuel Prices

Clean Cities / 10 OK, Alt fuels MAY be cheaper… –How much cheaper? –When will I see an ROI? –What is my initial capital cost? Analysis

Clean Cities / 11 Comparing Conventional Replacement with Alternative Operating Costs Only Lifecycle Analysis isn’t Exact Lifecycle Cost Factors DifferencesConstants Fuel EconomyAnnual Mileage Fuel ConsumptionReplacement Cycle? Fuel Type and PriceMaintenance Costs? Fuel Price Over Time? Vehicle Cost Incentives, Grants Maintenance Costs?

Clean Cities / 12 Simple analysis –Groups of similar vehicles –Consistent duty cycles, operations Trucking operations, HVAC, aggregate, refuse –2 EXAMPLE Comprehensive fleet analysis –Variable fleets with multiple duty-cycles –Long term planning Large government, corporate fleets –EXAMPLE Analysis Detail

Clean Cities / 13 Simple Analysis - AFDC

Clean Cities / 14 Simple Analysis - Excel

Clean Cities / 15 Comprehensive Analysis - Excel

Clean Cities / 16 Vehicle Availability –OEM vs. Conversion Daily Range vs. Vehicle Range Infrastructure Location vs. Vehicle Location Space/tank limitations Performance is NOT an issue Limiting Factors

Clean Cities / 17 Analysis doesn’t cover: –Infrastructure Cost –Vehicle Service –Maintenance Bay Upgrades Operating savings will determine justification Considerations

Clean Cities / 18 Products are proven ROI opportunities can be found within most fleets The problem is only going to get worse –Rising fuel prices –Volatile fuel budgets It’s a process – but a process worth making… so, PLAN NOW!! Conclusion

Mike Ogburn CleanEnergyEconomy.net Maria EisemannNorthernColoradoCleanCities.org Tyler Svitak DenverCleanCities.org