Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020 M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Schöpp

Contents Driving forces Emission projections Air pollution impacts Uncertainties The wider context Conclusions

Driving forces CAFE baseline projections –PRIMES energy projections with further climate measures –CAPRI agricultural projections, pre-CAP reform

Economic drivers assumed for the PRIMES “with climate measures” energy projection

Emissions Emission projections developed with the RAINS model Assuming implementation of present emission control legislation Ignoring implications of NEC and AQ Daughter directives

Land-based emissions “With climate measures” baseline projection, EU-25

Emissions from sea regions EU New Member States ---- Sea regions SO 2 NO x

Impacts Health impacts of PM Health impacts of O 3 Vegetation impacts of O 3 Acidification of forest soils Acidification of semi-natural ecosystems Acidification of lakes Eutrophication of terrestrial ecosystems

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Provisional calculations with generic assumptions on urban increments

Premature deaths attributable to ozone [cases/year] Provisional calculations with 50*50 km grid average concentrations

Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

Semi-natural ecosystems (e.g., Natura2000) with acid deposition above critical loads [km 2 ]

Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads

Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

What will be the situation in 2020? Remaining air quality impacts Major sources of emissions

Remaining problem areas in 2020 Light blue = no risk Forests – acid dep. Semi-natural – acid dep.Freshwater – acid dep. Health - PMHealth+vegetation - ozoneVegetation – N dep.

Sources of primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15

Sources of NO x emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

Sources of VOC emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

Sources of SO 2 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

Uncertainties Four types of uncertainties highlighted by the RAINS review team: Lack of scientific understanding Assumptions, simplifications etc. in the handling of data and the design of the RAINS compartment models Statistical variance in input data, etc. Socio-economic and technological development

(1) Lack in scientific understanding PM Health impacts Coal, oilWoodDiesel, gasolineOther Total PM2.5 emissions Black carbon CAFE baseline emission projections for PM EU-15 [kt]

(2) Model design Spatial resolution is critical Urban increment of PM2.5 (year 2000) Provisional City-Delta results (µg/m 3 ) Urban low-level PM2.5 emissions

(3) Statistical variance in data Inter-annual meteorological variability of PM Grid average concentrations, annual mean [µg/m 3 ] from known anthropog. sources excluding sec. org. aerosols. Calculations with emissions for the year 2000

(4) Uncertainties in socio-economic development Range of the 3 CAFE baseline emission projections [kt] EU New Member States

The wider context Long-term trends Hemispheric background

Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions “with climate measures”, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

Increase in background ozone “ Current legislation” scenario, [ppbv] Emission projections of NOx, CO, CH4: IIASA, TM3 model runs: JRC-IES

Conclusions Emissions will further decline But: Air quality remains threat to human health Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be reached Relevance of sources will change Ship emissions will surpass those from land-based EU sources Energy projections will influence future emissions and emission control costs

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Provisional calculations with generic assumptions on urban increments

Health-relevant ozone concentrations [SOMO35, ppb.days] *50 km grid average concentrations Average of computations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations AOT40 [ppm.hours]m Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Acid deposition to forests Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies Acid deposition to freshwater bodies

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies