MORTALITY CRISIS IN RUSSIA: WILL WE EVER LEARN? Vladimir Popov, New Economic School, Moscow

Fig. 1. Mortality rate (per 1000, left scale) and average life expectancy (years, right scale)

Fig. 2. Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy (at birth) in the Course of Early Urbanization: England

Fig. 3. Sales of alcohol, liters of pure alcohol per capita (left scale), death rates per 100,000 from alcohol poisoning, murders and suicides (right scale)

Mortality Crisis in Russia Revisited: Evidence from Cross- Regional Comparison. - MPRA PaperMortality Crisis in Russia Revisited: Evidence from Cross- Regional Comparison. - MPRA Paper No , March Over 80% of the regional variations in changes in life expectancy in are explained by: Objective conditions (climate, urbanization, regional dummies for the Far East and Moscow) Institutional capacity of the regional governments (share of employment at small enterprises, crime rate and murder rate) Economic indices (investment and income) Stress factors (labor turnover, migration, divorces, income inequalities, crime) Health care system developments (even without alcohol consumption indicators)

Increase in the consumption of alcohol is also driven by stress factors VODKAincr = -1.2 – 0.65VODKA POPdens UNEMPL03 + (3.88)(-5.74)(2.90)(1.97) MIGRgrINCR INEQincr LABmob POVERTYincr (2.48)(1.66)(6.40) (1.69) (N=75, R2 = 0.49, robust standard errors, t- statistics in brackets all coefficients significant at 10% level or less)

Fig. 4. Predicted (with and without stress) and actual changes in life expectancy in Russia's regions in , years