POPULATION MOMENTUM

1.What is FERTILITY RATE? 2.What is REPLACEMENT LEVEL? 3.WHAT IS CRUDE BIRTH RATE? 4.WHAT IS LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH?

ANSWER: 1) Average number of births per 1000 women of childbearing age (15-49, as defined by the WHO). 2) Number of child per women needed for the current population to be maintained 3) Number of births per 1000 people in a population. 4) How many years, in average, people live in a determined country.

Fertility Rates Are Declining All Over The World

AIMS: To calculate Population Momentum and consider its impacts.

Population Momentum and World Population Growth As we have seen, global fertility is declining. HOWEVER, before the rate of natural increase declines, there is a lag period. This is because children and youths who have already been born have not yet met their childbearing years. The population has momentum to keep growing. POPULATION MOMENTUM is when popn continues to grow even after the replacement level of fertility has been met. High percentage of popn at or before childbearing age.

Population Momentum Factor (PMF)

PMF There is positive momentum in the population which will lead to further growth. Natural increase is not contributing to population growth. There is negative momentum, with a high probability that the population will decline in size.

Albania Algeria American SamoaAndorra1010 Angola Antigua and Barbuda Argentina Armenia Aruba Australia Austria999 Azerbaijan Brazil Brunei Darussalam Bulgaria Burkina Faso Burundi Cambodia Cameroon Canada Cape Verde Costa Rica Cote d'Ivoire Micronesia, Fed. Sts Moldova Saudi Arabia Senegal Serbia1099 Seychelles Sierra Leone Singapore10910 CRUDE BIRTH RATE BY SELECTED COUNTRIES, DATA FROM WORLD BANK, 2013

1Monaco Macau Japan Singapore San Marino Andorra Guernsey Switzerland Hong Kong Australia Slovakia Croatia Algeria Sri Lanka Ecuador Aruba Bosnia and Herzegovina Antigua and Barbuda Libya Lithuania Tonga China Mauritius Maldives Serbia Barbados Oman Brazil Peru Samoa Vietnam72.65 LIST OF LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH FOR SELECTED COUNTRIES, CIA DATA, 2013

Accounting for PMF NIGERIA X 47 = This is fairly typical for African nations (short life expectancies but continued growth because of high fertility). VIETNAM X 73 = Vietnam has seen rapid economic development since Large decline in popn fertility (popn continues to grow because of increase in life expectancy- better living standards). JAPAN X 82 = Declining popn (decreasing BR and increasing LE). Large elderly popn supported through income taxes. Choose 3 countries and calculate their PMF. Try to choose 3 that will contrast nicely.

AS WORLD POPULATION GROWTH SLOWS, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT WORLD POPULATION WILL DECLINE, MERELY THAT IT WILL GROW AT A SLOWING RATE OF INCREASE. Growth is getting smaller, not population size.

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