The sustainability challenge to aviation Anthony Rae Volunteer Aviation campaigner Friends of the Earth

Issues - What type of challenge to aviation? - A sustainable development analysis: economic/ social/ environmental, and also long-term - Where are we in 2011? - What would Responsible Aviation look like?

Background - Participant in pre White Paper North of England reference group -Doncaster Finningley Airport public inquiry Wrote Airportwatch: Flying into Trouble and 2003 FOE submission into ATWP: Sustainable Aviation = Demand Management -Member of the FOE core aviation team -Research with Tyndall Centre - Growth Scenarios for EU & UK Aviation: contradictions with climate policy 2005 & Aviation in a Low Carbon EU: how the aviation ETS must be improved 2007

Background -Leeds Bradford Airport Surface Access Forum 2005 onwards -Work on UK and EU legal frameworks LBA new Terminal planning application work on new Government aviation framework and HS2 also -Head of Tourism, Manchester City Council Member of the Yorkshire & Humber Regional Transport Board

Background Air travellers could still fly as much as they like (an advantage of the demand management model over the capacity constraint model), only they would have to pay an appropriate price to do so. This is the best way to reconcile consumer wishes and their wider obligations in a civil market society especially one in which the environmental imperative is rising. Friends of the Earth 2003

Economics -The primacy of the economic analysis -The partiality of the DfT economic analysis -OEF but now Omega. E.g The economic studies examined tend to demonstrate an expansionary trend in the definition and calculation of air transport employment.

Economics -Properly interpreting the Low Cost business model -In economics, the Jevons paradox is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource -So annual improvements to engine/fuel efficiency, recycled through lower fares, produce not less emissions … but more! -But not according to IATA: Less Fuel = Less Emissions -However surely Low Cost does = Low Employment?

Economics - in the regions - The false doctrine of ATWP 2003: Airports are an important focus for the development of local and regional economies. They attract business and generate employment and open up wider markets. They can provide an important impetus to regeneration and a focus for new commercial and industrial development Regional tourism deficit - Regional rebalancing

Economics - International - the Food Miles analysis - Many developing countries have in turn built-up substantial local economies based on international tourism. In some cases the dependence on inbound international tourism is very high. APD consultation -The benefits of tourism to the economies of developing nations has been significantly and systematically over- estimated. NEF

Bringing Economics and Environmental together - The growth in aviation s carbon emissions broadly reflects the rapid increase in passenger demand, in parallel with a substantial reduction in the real cost of flying over this period. Since 1990 passenger numbers in the UK have increased by 113%, while real air fares have fallen by around 60%. In the absence of further restraints on demand, air passenger numbers are forecast to grow by up to 200% by APD consultation But what about the increase in emissions since 1990? +120% to 2005

Environmental - For FOE this means climate change - Contribution that aviation emissions make to overall GHG totals 2009: UK 5% (DfT 6%) and Global 2.4% CCC 2050: UK around 25% (according to specific assumptions relating to the national carbon budget) and Global 15-20% (according to assumptions relating to thresholds for the avoidance of dangerous climate change) CCC

Environmental In January 2009, the Government set a target to reduce UK aviation emissions in 2050 back to 2005 levels or below. … Our assessment of required policies is therefore focused on the target as currently defined, keeping 2050 UK aviation CO2 emissions to no more than 37.5 MtCO2 CCC

Environmental The industry version of climate change targets - These targets include achieving carbon neutral growth from 2020, reducing emissions by 1.5% annually in the run-up to 2020, and halving emissions by 2050 compared with 2005 levels. ATAG for IATA - New aircraft are 70% more fuel efficient than 40 years ago and 20% better than 10 years ago. Airlines are aiming for a further 25% fuel efficiency improvement by IATA - IATA Fuel Efficiency Goal: IATA airlines have adopted a voluntary fuel efficiency goal. This is to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions (per revenue tonne kilometer) by at least 25% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels.

Environmental ICAO 37th Assembly: Noted the IATA decision to continuously improve CO2 efficiency by an average of 1.5% per annum from 2009 until 2020, to achieve carbon neutral growth from 2020 and reducing its carbon emissions by 50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels Resolution 6 [to] … work together to strive to achieve a collective medium term global aspirational goal of keeping the global net carbon emissions from international aviation from 2020 at the same level, taking into account: … f) that emissions may increase due to the expected growth in international air traffic until lower emitting technologies and fuels and other mitigating measures are developed and deployed Resolution 4 to achieve a global annual average fuel efficiency improvement of 2% until 2020 and an aspirational global fuel efficiency improvement rate of 2% per annum from 2021 to 2050

Environmental "There is an enormous amount of work to do to improve fuel efficiency and reduce carbon dioxide emissions," admits ATAG, adding that alternative fuels will play a key role in meeting the objectives. … use of sustainable alternative fuels for aviation to accelerate the reduction of aviation CO2 emissions ICAO A i) when they really meant reduce the acceleration of …

Bringing the Economic, Social and Environmental together Reducing the carbon emissions from aviation is crucial both to the success of climate change policies and to the future of aviation. … the following principles should apply … b) aviation should be treated equitably in climate change policy - it should not be demonised or assigned symbolic value beyond its true impacts … TSC Future of Aviation Dec If the aviation sector continues to be privileged inside the UK National Carbon Budget, all other economic and social sectors will need to bear increased costs and face additional carbon reductions. - Why?

Where are we in 2011? White Paper but then EU ETS 2007, Climate Change Act 2008 and abandonment of SE runways Key recommendation: International aviation and shipping should in future be included in carbon budgets. CCC 4 th Carbon Budget report Dec DECC High Fossil Fuel price assumption; …further downgrade of 2011 industry profit forecast to $4 billion, a 78% drop compared to 2010 $18 billion net profit. On expected revenues of $598 billion, this equates to a 0.7% margin IATA June 2011

Where are we in 2011? - With the environmental framework increasingly constraining the shape and direction of aviation growth, it is clear that, if we are to continue enjoying the significant benefits of a growing, deregulated aviation industry, then we need to put aviation on a more sustainable footing. SoS June IATA warns EU over illegal carbon plan; Manchester Airport launches Give us a break tax campaign for passengers

What would Responsible Aviation look like? - Keeping aviation in perspective - Principle: Neither demonised, nor privileged … subject to responsible behaviour - the Business Model versus Climate Change - the Business Model versus the UK economy and social sectors - Public Relations versus the Business Model

What would Responsible Aviation look like? - The rate and absolute level of forecast and intended growth is unsustainable. What to do? Some principles: - Cant rethink so instead constrain the Low Cost business model - Accept equal treatment and responsibilities inside the UK national carbon budget (and the same globally) - Accept fair tax treatment and demand management - Stop seeking privileged position at the expense of other sectors

What would Responsible Aviation look like? But is aviation either a responsible or sustainable industry at present? The answer is: No

What would Responsible Aviation look like? Maybe like this