BARACK OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY? Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt –Or Self-centered national interest.

CONCEPTUAL ISSUES 1. Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft.” 2. Sovereignty and internal vs. international domains. 3. Emphasis on war vs. peace. 4. Importance of democracy. 5. Value of international cooperation, institutions. 6. American power: extent vs. limits.

FOUNDATIONS FOR ALTERNATIVES U.S. loss of “soft power” Continuing frustration in Latin America Importance of Latin America to U.S. Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? 1. Election of a president with personal commitment to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America. 2. Events within region that demand U.S. attention— e.g., spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack. 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e.g., “clash of civilizations.” 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.

THE OBAMA RECORD Exaggerated expectations Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Iraq, Afghanistan) Hesitant beginnings, ambivalent stances Nuanced view of Latin America

CENTRAL ISSUES Honduras: commitment to democracy? Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo Points of tension: –Venezuela –Bolivia –“New Left” in general War on Drugs Immigration

OBAMA AND CIR Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth) Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000 Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers Family visas: tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015

EXECUTIVE ACTIONS 2014 mid-term elections and Obama’s liberation Reducing deportations Negotiations with Cuba

CUBA Restores Clinton emphasis on “people to people” contacts Embargo exemptions for humanitarian, religious, academic purposes More flights (chartered) Remittances of $500 per quarter Context: –Private market in Cuba, reduced role of state –Emergence of “civil society” –Republican takeover of House of Representatives –New generation of Cuban-Americans

And so…?