Unit II: Fundamentals of Population

What is Population Geography? Demography:  The statistics relating to population geography Population Geography:  How people live, how they interact with one another, how they use the land, what pressure on resources exist, and what the future may bring; answers questions of where? And why there?

Satellite Monitoring of Artificial Light Make note of the “Developed World”

Key Issues in Population Geography What are the Issues? Population growth (esp. in developing world) Food supply Health Status of women Migration

Elements of Population Geography Population and space Humanity has always been unevenly distributed over the land Contrasts between crowded cities and empty reaches have intensified during the 20th c. In technologically advanced countries, people tend to cluster in cities and towns

Population Distribution & Density Distribution of population describes the locations on Earth's surface where individuals or groups live Dot maps efficiently show distribution of populations

World Population Distribution Dot Map

Arithmetic Density Arithmetic Density –divide the area of a country by the total population; a numerical average Not accurate because it does not include clustering within a country Does not represent empty areas

Arithmetic Density

Physiological Density Physiologic density - number of people per unit of agriculturally productive land More useful than arithmetic density Gives the real situation in terms of cultivable land and the growing pressure on it Excludes agriculturally non-productive land

Physiological Density Reflects the “burden of dependency” - the proportion of persons under 15 and over 65 who are economically dependent on working members aged 15 to 64

Physiological Density

Physiologic Population Density Luxor, Egypt Egypt’s arable lands are along the Nile River Valley. Moving away from the river a few blocks, the land becomes sandy and wind-sculpted.

Global and National Patterns

East Asia Contains more than a 1/4 of the world's population China alone has a pop. of nearly 1.6 billion Most people live along coastlines, river basins and lowlands Dominant activity is farming

Japan Very limited farmlands High population density Prosperous and well-fed people because of: (1) High technological prowess (2) Industrial capacity (3) Money-producing exports

South Asia Ganges River in India has one of the great concentrations of people on Earth Bangladesh More than 120 million people in area size of Iowa Nearly all people are farmers India Growing faster than china (1.5 Billion people)

Contains about 700 million people Europe Contains about 700 million people Population distribution as compared to Asia Large populations found in countries near coal fields Dense populations in mountainous, rugged countries More people live in cities Rural countryside more open and not as populated

North America Not as densely populated as Europe and Asia, more spread out Rural areas less populated Like Europe, population concentrated in major cities

Other regions South America and Australia seem to have space remaining for pop. Growth and distribution Pockets of Africa are very dense while other parts are sparsely populated due to physical barriers Nile Valley and Delta has more than 66 million inhabitants Areas around deserts not as populated

Some Generalizations 90% of the world’s population is above the equator, 66% in the mid-latitudes (includes US and Europe) 50% of the population lives on 5% of the available land. 66% of the world’s populations live within 300 miles of the ocean.

Population

World Population Growth Through History Billions 12 11 2100 10 9 Modern Age 8 Old Stone Bronze Iron Middle 7 Age New Stone Age Age Age Ages 6 2000 Future 5 4 1975 3 1950 2 1900 1 Black Death — The Plague 1800 1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 World Pop. was steady until the agricultural/ scientific revolutions – then it exploded

Population Growth--the Problem Food Supply Status of Women Health Issues--not enough nutrients in food, lack of medical help Environmental Issues--deforestation, erosion, technology/chemicals

Global Population Growth Is Driven by Developing Countries. World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.

Sparks to Population Growth Agricultural Revolution Industrial Revolution Urbanization and Sanitation Advances in Medicine Conquest and Colonization of New Lands Developing Countries

Checks on Population Growth Epidemics and Plagues --Bubonic Plague- 1348-1350, 1/4 of the population killed, England loses 4 million people Famines Potato Famine in Ireland India and China Wars Natural Decrease

Demographic Equations Growth Rate (%) = Birth Rate – Death Rate +/– Migration = Rate of Natural Increase (%) Population Doubling Time (yrs.) = 70  Rate of Natural Increase

Total Fertility Rate - the average number of children a women will have in her childbearing years. This rate varies from just over 1 (Japan, Italy) to around 7 (Niger, Mali). The U.S. rate is 2. Palestinian Territories Fertility Rate 1975-1980 7.39 1980-1985 7.00 1985-1990 6.43 1990-1995 6.46 1995-2000 5.99 2000-2005 5.57 2.1 is generally regarded as the replacement rate (the rate at which a population neither grows nor shrinks) in the developed world. In less developed countries this rate should be higher to account for so many children not reaching childbearing age. U.K. Total fertility rate 1975-1980 1.72 1980-1985 1.80 1985-1990 1.81 1990-1995 1.78 1995-2000 1.70 2000-2005 1.66 Africa Fertility Rate 1975-1980 6.60 1980-1985 6.45 1985-1990 6.11 1990-1995 5.67 1995-2000 5.26 2000-2005 4.97

Infant Mortality Rate – the number of deaths of children under the age of one per thousand live births. The rate ranges from as low as 3 (Singapore, Iceland) to as much as 150 (Sierra Leone, Afghanistan). The U.S. rate is just over 6. High infant mortality tends to result in higher fertility rates as families seek “insurance” for the loss of children.

G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China

H. Diverging Trends in Fertility Reduction Average number of children per woman Many developing countries have cut population growth Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

I. Trends in Life Expectancy, by Region Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years In 2045-2050, infants born around the world can expect to live an average of 75 years — up ten years from today. Africa will experience the largest increase in life expectancy: from 49 years to 65 years. Life expectancy varies widely by region. In more developed countries, life expectancy averages 76 years, compared with only 49 years in Africa. L.E increase vary with region – greatest gains in the developing nations

Arithmetic Density – the total number of people per a unit of land area. U.S. = 76/mi2; NYC=1,000,000/mi2; Australia = 7/mi2 Physiological Density – the total number of people per a unit of arable (farmable) land.

World and Country Population Totals Distribution and Structure: 3/4 of people live on 5% of earth's surface! Total: 7 billion on planet as of Oct. 20, 2011 Five most populous regions and countries REGION POPULATION COUNTRY POPULATION East Asia 1.9 billion China 1.548 billion South Asia 1.7 billion India 1.349 billion Europe 825 million U.S. 330 million SE Asia 600million Indonesia 310 million Brazil 246million

D. Projected Population Change, by Country Percent Population Change, 2005-2050 Women worldwide are having fewer children in their lifetimes, from an average of five children born per woman in the 1950s to below three in 2000. All of the most recent projections put forth by the UN assume that levels of childbearing will continue to decline in the next century. Greatest increases are slated for Africa and the Arab world, while Europe and China remain stagnant

G. Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Lowest Total Fertility rates tend to cluster in Eastern Europe and also include China

Birth Control Programs One family/one child policies Female infanticide Social compensation fees Sterilization Loss of status Termination healthcare/food coupons Free birth control Increased literacy

K. Age Distribution of the World’s Population Population Structures by Age and Sex, 2005 Millions Less Developed Regions More Developed Regions Age 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 Male Female Male Female Sex and age distributions show that less developed countries have significantly younger populations than more developed countries. Almost one-third of the population in less developed countries is under age 15. In contrast, less than one-fifth of the population in more developed countries is under 15. Today there are more than 2 billion young people below age 20 in less developed regions—the age cohort that will soon become the world’s newest group of parents. Young age structures in the less developed countries are due mainly to higher levels of childbearing in recent decades. Pyramids for the LDCs and HDCs are vastly different

World Death Rates Infectious diseases Degenerative diseases HIV/AIDS SARS Degenerative diseases Obesity Tobacco use Epidemiology Epidemiological transition

Adults and Children Living with AIDS, 2004

Rates of Natural Increase

Doubling Time = 70 / Rate of Increase Doubling Time (yrs.) Example (1998) 0.50 140 Ireland 0.60 120 United States 1.00 70 China 2.00 35 Costa Rica 3.50 20 Yemen Higher rate of increase = shorter doubling time (inverse relationship)

2000 yrs. ago – 250 million: doubling time 16 centuries (1650) 1650 – 500 million: doubling time 170 yrs. (1820) … 2000 – doubling time reduced to 35 yrs. (>6 billion currently)

Doubling Times The doubling time is the number of years before a population will be twice as large as it is today. World = 50 U.S. = 34 MDC = 543 LDC = 40 Honduras = 22 Belize = 19 Denmark = 700 Russia = never?

Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

1. Stage One Growth Pre-Industrial economy – Crude death rate and birth rate fluctuate freely due mainly to famine, but also war and disease

2. Stage Two Growth Early Industrial Economy - Industrialization leads death rates down w/better food access due to agricultural advances, while birth rate level off at a stable rate

3. Stage Three Growth Developed Industrial Economy - Birth rates plummet along with death rates as overall population climbs. Most people survive to old age so no need to replace with babies

Nations reach replacement fertility – 2.1 children per couple 4. Stage Four Growth Developed Economies - The post-industrial economy sees birth and death rates converging as population growth levels off and stabilizes. Nations reach replacement fertility – 2.1 children per couple

Demographic Transition Theory 4 Stages: High Birth Rate, High Death Rate High Birth Rate, Declining Death Rate Declining Birth Rate, Low Death Rate Low Birth Rate, Low Death Rate

Demographic Transition Model Stage one (preindustrial/pre-agricultural) Crude birth/death rate high Fragile, but stable, population Stage two (improved agriculture and medicine) Lower death rates Infant mortality rate falls Natural increase very high Stage three (attitudes change) Indicative of richer developed countries Higher standards of living/education Crude birth rate finally falls Stage four Crude birth/death rates low Population stable Populations aging

Problems with the Demographic Transition Model based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3

Population Shift

Overpopulation When consumption of natural resources by people outstrip the ability of a natural region to replace those natural resources.

Jean Antoine Condorcet (1743 – 1794) predicted that innovation, resulting increased wealth, and choice would provide food and resources in the future and lead to fewer children per family believed that society was perfectable

Thomas Malthus Food Production increases linearly while population increases geometrically— i.e. the world will not have enough food to support itself 

But wait! Technology Intervenes Is Malthus wrong for the future? Malthus cont… But wait! Technology Intervenes Is Malthus wrong for the future? A problem we will never escape--population will outdo technology

Thomas Malthus on Population An Essay on the Principle of Population, 1798 Malthus, responding to Condorcet, predicted population would outrun food supply, leading to a decrease in food per person. Assumptions Populations grow exponentially. Food supply grows arithmetically. Food shortages and chaos inevitable.

Population J-Curve

Population and the Environment I = P x A x T Impact = Population x Affluence x Technology Population-influenced environmental problems: Global Warming Habitat Loss / Endangered Species Resource Depletion Food Shortages? Not globally, but regionally.

Population and Resource Consumption

Population Policy: Making National Decisions

The Population Bomb!

What is Population a policy? The decisions made by a national gov. to alter growth rates through legal and social means

Tools for Population goals Education & Propaganda

China’s Propaganda Posters Carry out family planning Implement the basic national policy Do a good job in family planning to promote economic development

Financial incentives Parents can be rewarded or punished through taxes, tuition or housing as in China’s One Child Policy Many countries are trying this some to boost their populations, others to decrease it.

Women’s Approach By empowering LDC women to financial success, cycles of large families can sometimes be broken. A common U.N strategy in Africa

Family Planning Through Public Health Services, counseling, contraception and even abortion can be made available. These programs have a mixed record based on cultural values

Foreign Aid Financial and technical aid are often made available by the U.N or MDCs. Problems arise when money or the programs themselves are discontinued

Coercion Enforced sterilization or abortion are rarely successful and often have the opposite effect. India’s enforced sterilization in the 1970s was a disaster