Engineering Management & Systems proudly presents Probability and Statistics for Engineers ENM 500 Your instructor for this course: Chuck Ebeling A best course, ever!

Course Description This is an introductory course in the concepts and applications of probability and statistics. Emphasis is on applications and examples that an engineer or analyst would encounter in practice. Probability is presented as the fundamental tool for modeling uncertainty as well as the bridge between a population of data and its samples. Descriptive statistics is introduced as the vehicle for describing and characterizing data. Inferential statistics and related statistical methods provide the means of generalizing to a population from a sample thus enabling solutions and conclusions to be reached that otherwise would be not obtained.

Course Objectives describe the basic concepts of probability, Upon completion of the course, each student should be able to: describe the basic concepts of probability, obtain and interpret analytical results using state-of-the-art software, understand, describe, and apply parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, statistical inference, linear regression, analysis of variance, identify possible applications and formulate appropriate models, pursue further study in this area through electives, self-study, or review of the literature.

Class Meetings Sec01: 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM, KL 304 If I signed up for the internet, can I also attend a campus class? Please!! Monday and Wednesdays Sec01: 11:30 AM – 12:45 PM, KL 304 or via Internet Distance Learning

Important Contact Info and Websites Email: ebeling@udayton.edu Phone / fax: (973) 229-2695 / (937) 229-2698 Office / office hours: KL 365D 9:00 – 11:00 am & 2:00- 4:00 pm Mon.-Thur. Course WebSite: (need password): http://academic.udayton.edu/CharlesEbeling/ENM500/Syllabus.htm Department Website: http://engineering.udayton.edu/enm/ Webex Distance Learning Site: https://udayton.webex.com/udayton/meet/Ebeling

Textbook Applied Statistics and Probability for Engineers (fourth edition) by Montgomery and Runger ISBN: 0471745898 Supplementary reference: Probability and Statistics: with Integrated Software Routines (Hardcover) by Ronald Deep

Prerequisites knowledge of algebra matrix algebra calculus computer literacy MTH 168, 169, 218 and MTH 302,  or equivalent or successful completion of ENM 503

These are good grading devices. Midterm 40 % Turn‑in exercises 20 % Final Exam 40 % These are good grading devices. Grade Distribution 90-100 A 85-89 A- 80-84 B+ 75-79 B 70-74 B- 60-69 C

The Road Ahead – 16 weeks of fun and excitement! Class Schedule: Week Subject Aug 26 Introduction 1-1 thru 1-4 Aug 31/Sep 2 Sample Spaces and Random Events 2-1 thru 2-7 Sep 7 Labor Day – no class Sep 9/14 Discrete Random Variables 2-8, 3-13-6, 3-7-1, 3-9 Sep 16/21 Continuous Random Variables 4-1 thru 4-6, 4-8, 4-10 Sep 23/28 Joint Probability Distributions 5-1, 5-3 Sep 30/Oct 5 Continuous Joint Distributions & Linear Combinations 5-2, 5-5 Oct 7/12 Random Sampling 6-1 thru 6-6 Oct 8-11 Midterm Break – time to study for midterm exam Oct 14/21 Sampling Distributions and Parameter Estimation 7-1 thru 7-3, 7-4.1, 7-4.2 Oct 19 Midterm Chapters 1 - 6 2 hours in duration

More Road Ahead – 16 weeks of fun and excitement continues! Oct 26/28 Statistical Intervals 8-1 thru 8-6 Nov 2/4 Hypothesis Tests 9-1 thru 9-5 Nov 9/11 Two Sample Statistics 10-1 thru 10-6 Nov 16/18 Simple Linear Regression 11-1 thru 11-8 Nov 23 Multiple Linear Regression 12-1 thru 12-2 Nov 25 Thanksgiving Break – no class Nov 30/Dec 2 Multiple Linear Regression / ANOVA 12-3 thru 12-6 Dec 7/9 ANOVA / final exam review 13-1 thru 13-4 Dec 14 Final Exam Chapters 7 – 13 2 hours in duration

You may work any of the problems from the textbook for your own educational enjoyment. Solutions to the odd numbered problems can be found in the back of the book. Selected problems from each chapter will be turned in for a grade. What about homework?

Our Very First Turn-in Assignment Problems Due Date Web submission Chapter 2 34, 36, 62, 70 a-b, 82 b-c, 94, 114, 122, 128, 132, 134, 144, 166 Sep 9 Chap2 Prob/Stat students collaborating on their homework assignment

What about the computer? Do we need one? The computer will be useful for many of the homework problems and essential for some of the problems. What about the computer? Do we need one?

What about the exams. Will they be hard? Exams will be open book and involve problem solving. Your best preparation is to do the homework! What about the exams. Will they be hard?

Software Excel (with VBA) Minitab Internet (online) calculators Rent Minitab for $29.99 per semester (6 months) Perpetual copy - $99.99 Internet (online) calculators

prob and stat This all sounds great Chuck, but what is this thing anyway? Is it some kind of medical term or what?

What’s this prob and stat all about? The art and science of making decisions under uncertainty “I don’t have all the facts. But find me a decision which is best for my organization.” profits

Statistics Defined Body of techniques which deal with the collection, summarization, presentation, and analysis of quantitative data Branch of applied mathematics concerned with the design of experiments or sampling procedures, the analysis of data, and the making of inferences about a population from information in a sample. Body of theory and methodology employed in analyzing and using numerical evidence to choose one among several alternative decisions or actions when not all of the data is known or available. Descriptive Statistics – the summarization and presentation of data Inferential Statistics – generalizations made from a sample Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics Frequency Distributions Sampling Theory Measures of Central Tendency Point and Confidence Interval Estimation Measures of Variability Hypothesis Testing

What does statistics do for me? provides a tool for dealing with uncertainty in making decisions probability models and inferential statistics provides a means of dealing with large amounts of data descriptive statistics provides efficient techniques for obtaining information Sampling theory Regression analysis Experimental design

The Engineering (scientific) Method Define Problem Identify relevant factors Formulate a hypothesis (construct statistical model) Collect Data (conduct experiments) Draw Conclusions (solve model) Test Hypothesis

Research - gain knowledge by: Chance or intuition - fortuitous glimpse of truth obtain with no conscious effort or plan Trial and error Generalization from experience Logic - reason things out Scientific inquiry - the careful and exhaustive investigation of all ascertainable evidence bearing upon a definable problem leading to the solution of the problem. student’s approach this one!

Some Basic Definitions Population – the totality of the elements or objects of interest e.g. the set of all ENM students sample – any subset of the population e.g. 20 ENM students selected at random parameter – a descriptive measure of a characteristic of a population e.g. the average (mean) GPA of all ENM students statistic - a descriptive measure of a characteristic of a sample e.g. the average (mean) GPA of 20 ENM 500 students selected at random random sample – a sample in which all elements of the population have an equal chance of being selected as an element of the sample

Two types of statistical analysis Deductive – given a population, what will the sample look like? Inductive (inferential) – given a sample, what can be said about the population?

I just don’t have the time or personnel to collect all that data. Why Sample? I just don’t have the time or personnel to collect all that data. Limited Resources money time personnel Limited Data Destructive Testing

The Big Picture (a rare insight) deduction population descriptive statistics parameter (e.g. mean) sample descriptive statistics statistic (e.g. sample mean) probability theory induction (inferential statistics)

Let’s go visit the course Website http://academic.udayton.edu/CharlesEbeling/ENM500/Syllabus.htm Visit it often Contains: schedule presentations (ppt files) class recordings download material (xls, pdf, doc) homework assignments & submission forms notices (bulletin board) student homework & exam grades Let’s go visit the course Website

Some Administrative Points Exams attempt to make exams like the chapter problems It is a good text. I will follow it. If you master its material, we have succeeded. You can never work too many homework or example problems. Open book and notes on exams. Computers ok Pace of Class I keep moving unless there are questions – what else can I do? There are no bad questions. If you are wondering about something, you can bet several others are as well. I am never afraid to ask the obvious question – sometimes you need to hear the answer. If we have to, we will work to get answers to your question off line.

This way to the prob and stat … I cannot wait to get started on this course. What is our first topic? This way to the prob and stat …