Severe Weather Forecasting Tools in the Ninjo Workstation Paul Joe 1, Hans-Joachim Koppert 2, Dirk Heizenreder 2 Bernd Erbshaeusser 2, Wolfgang. Raatz 2, Bernhard Reichert 2 and Michael Rohn 2 1 Meteorological Service of Canada 2 Deutscher Wetterdienst

Outline Brief NinJo overview Various Tools Specfic to Weather Warnings Radar – Doppler, 3D Algorithms (Konrad, CARDS) Storm Classification Identification and Tracking Interactive Cross-sections Interactive Cell Views Automon EPM – Editing, Production, Monitoring of Warnings OOG – Objectively Optimized Guidance MMO – Modified Model Output Current status

What is NinJo? Consortium of five partners Data Visualization Workstation 1.0 release date deployed by DWD, DMI, MCH, BGS MSC responsible for radar, lightning DWD responsible for SCIT

Why NinJo? “stuck” in adding more forecast applications Need common interfaces (data and human) Legacy software, stovepiped one system=one application, expensive to support Modern, Architecture

NinJo Layers = Client Interface to Server Applications

Severe Weather Warnings for DWD DWD announced that it will to take the responsibility to provide a severe thunderstorm/tornado warning service!

Radar in NinJo Initially based on the Canadian radar system in Canada due to requirements for severe weather. Integrates data/products DWD legacy systems [KONRAD Hohenpeissenberg / RDT Offenbach AP2003 group], from MCH (TRT)

Some Philosophy Assume expert severe wx user Must maintain situational awareness Work from composite and drill down to details Support Analysis/Mental Models Detail view match “text book” material Create Leverage Points/not answers Use algorithms as guidance and not to promote dumbness Do not rely on algorithms, use them wisely

Implementation – SCIT and Cells Composite radar; Imagery hidden Cell detections shown Storm Classification Identification and Tracking - “ranked storms”

Cell View

Radar Data/Products and NinJo Can manipulate, view, interact with radar in the same way as any other data – separation by usage rather than by sensor Radar/data functionality separated VAD = aerological data Cell Objects = point data Radar Fields = 2D or 3D data Cross-section capability = path layer

NinJo and Radar Composites on the fly or pre-computed, Data viewer A NinJo View: Transparent radar and satellite overaid on surface data

Interactive “Cell” Views (first prototype step) User sets the area for viewing. Not necessarily based on algorithm detection of thunderstorms (and their problems)! Any data type can be included in the cell view window. eg boundary identification, fog monitoring

Assessing Models with Data Watch / Assessment Phase of the Severe weather forecast process

Cross-sections

MxRadar XSection

AutoMon (Automatic Monitoring) (i) point threshold for alerting, (ii) model vs data, (iii) forecast vs data Objects: Will handle objects generated by lightning cluster algorithms, satellite, manually using the same

Assessing Models Watch Phase Real vs Synthetic (NWP)

Assessing Models by Comparing with Data

Editting, Production and Monitoring (Warning Layer)

Objectively Optimized Guidance (Blending)

Summary Very brief description of the NinJo and the Severe Weather package Several tools to support the forecaster to make better decisions Radar, algorithms, ranking, cell views, cross-sections, Automon, MMO (EPM (warning production), lightning, swath products System in development, v1 released, v1.2 March 2006 Need to spend time on training to develop expertise Science, technology, usage Practice/Simulation needed to optimize use

Lightning / Lightning Cluster Analysis

Modified Model Output (Point and Area editting)