Budget Based Wargaming (BBW) Decision Support Tool (DST) R. Jay Roland, PhD President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation Return On Investment; Software/Data/Budget

 BBW = Budget Based Wargame  Deriving cost elements from wargame scenarios to determine cost of the campaign.  DST = Decision Support Tool  A procedure to evaluate data resulting from multiple iterations of the “wargame” being used to support corporate resource management decisions.  PURPOSE = Inform civil-military force management decisions December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

December 2012 A Generic BBW-DST Methodology Output in $ A Simulation Targets New Decision Criteria New/added information to make decision SMEs & TTPs 1 2n Data Forces A Scenario Less Expensive ? No Satisfied No Simulation Experiments 3 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

1.Budget Based Wargaming (BBW) is a methodology. 2.Decision Support Tool (DST) is a product of BBW. 3.In simple terms it is: December 2012 BBW-DST is a methodology and DST is a product CAX CK PNT ENDEX Accumulate Data! Save Data. Reuse Data. 4 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 THE RETURN ON INVESTMENT INCLUDES:  Software  Data  Budget  Informed Force Reductions  A METHODOLOGY FOR A MULTIPLE ROI Why is BBW-DST Important? December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 Mandated Deficit Reduction  Anticipated Additional Reductions  Major Concern - Impact on Capabilities  New Tools & Approaches – Critical!  Does it matter what country or agency you represent??? Why Is BBW-DST Important? December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 Multiple Articles on BBW  Studies  Academic issues  Applications  Continued investigations  Defense News Examples  Rarely Applied Multiple References December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 Naval Postgraduate School  JTLS Users  NATO CAX Forum  OSD Staff Appreciation December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 8

 How many have not heard or don’t understand what sequestration means to the US DOD?  How many believe it will not happen on 2 January?  Will it be delayed indefinitely?  How many are planning for it?  What’s different in your AOR? Audience Data Collection December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 9

 Software re-use.  What’s the argument for / against?  Data re-use  What’s the argument for / against?  Can we agree that an ROI is realized through re-use of software and data?  What if we add a tool to inform sequestration?  Inform leadership concerning reduced budgets? More Data Collection December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 10

Impact of Budget Cuts October 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 11  ACROSS THE INTERNET AND ELSEWHERE:  Defense cuts are “forcing the military to alter its roles and missions.”  Boeing – major reduction expecting significant decline in defense spending, worldwide.  Reductions expected to be done without harming readiness??  Hard choices to be made about which weapon systems and troop levels to be reduced.  Extremely difficult choices that MUST BE MADE!

 R. Roland, PhD.  President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation   K. Robertson, PhD.  President, Athena, Inc.   A. Hernandez, PhD.  Professor, US Naval Postgraduate School  The BBW DST Team October © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 Defense News, 2012  US House – Defense Cuts  Canada Cuts Air Defense, Anti-Armor Missiles  Reduction In Funding Leads to Massive Reduction Of Force  Services Fight to Preserve Systems and Capabilities  More articles/meetings/announcements/ … Today’s News December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

‘Sequestration’ looking increasingly likely, say defense analysts” Wall Street Journal, OCT 2012 SEQUESTRATION

“White House misses sequestration deadline; DoD will see 11% cut” “White House misses sequestration deadline; DoD will see 11% cut”  The Federal Times, 7 September 2012;

Secretary of the Air Force Michael Donley

The Christian Science Monitor, SEP 2012  Overall, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget outlined the $109 billion in spending cuts for 2013 as follows: Hits to defense programs of either 9.4 percent or 10 percent, depending on how they receive their appropriations from Congress ($55 billion).

Budgets December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

What & How Much Must Go? December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

BUDGET CRISIS! December 2012 Introducing BBW-DST… BBW-DST… 20 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

DEEP FORCE REDUCTION S Where do you start? How do you decide? How do you decide? How do you maintain? How do you maintain? December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

December 2012 Data CAX Game/Scenario Execution ENDEX DATA Typical CAX Execution Scenario SMEs Data? 22 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 Select Simulation  Select Scenario  Quantify the Data  Execute, then Quantify the Scenario  Develop Experimental Design  Optimize Decision Space  Iterate CAX for Cost Effective Alternatives  Report BBW-DST Approach December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

December 2012 The BBW-DST Methodology Output in $ A Simulation Targets New Decision Criteria New/added information to make decision SMEs & TTPs 12n Data Forces A Scenario Less Expensive ? No Satisfied No NPS Experimental Design & Analysis 24 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

1) Existing Wargaming Software 2) Low Cost / Low Risk Decision Support 3) Links CAX Results 4) Provides a Probability of Mission Success 5) Informs Military Operations, Programming, Budgeting, Manpower, Training & Capital Investment Decisions BBW-DST Operational Plan December 2012 ID Wargaming Software 25 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 Joint / Coalition Capable  Operational Level  Well Documented  Both Classified and Unclassified Data  Significant / Reasonable Number of Users  Federations  Data are available w/o extra expense Simulation Selection Criteria December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 26

Civil-Military Hierarchy Decision Levels December 2012 Political Strategic Operational Tactical JTLS 27 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

December 2012 SMEs JTLSCAX InitialDatabase Commander’s Intent/ Game Objective Strategy/TTP Employed in Game CKPNT 1; CKPNT 2 CKPNT 3; CKPNT n ENDEX DATA Capture CaptureCAX/Game DATA DATA BBW-DST Initialization Scenario 28 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

NPS Simulation Experiments & Efficient Designs (SEED) Center December 2012 Commander’s Intent/ Game Objective Strategy/TTP Employed in Game CKPNT 1; CKPNT 2 CKPNT 3; CKPNT n ENDEX CAX/Game DATA DATA Experimental Design Optimization and Estimation Data Visualization To produce variables and TTPs for continued evaluation of lower cost solutions. 29 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

Methodology Overview: Post-Wargame Analysis experimentation, efficient designs, and analysis. Systems Engineering and Operations Research Centric Approach Simulation- independent December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

December 2012 The BBW-DST Schema Output in $ JTLS GAME Targets New Decision Criteria New/added information to make decision SMEs & TTPs 12n Data Forces A Scenario Less Expensive ? No Satisfied No Simulation Experiments 31 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

JTLS BBW-DST Benefits December 2012 Supports Capability Based Assessments Provides unbiased, quantitative/defensible data for budgeting Quantifies Civil/Military Ops for investment decisions 32 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

JTLS BBW-DST Benefits December 2012 Provides data for civil/military leaders to ID & prioritize capabilities and budgets Correlates defense capabilities with budgets Gaps Acquisition Strategies & Operational Requirements Data and software reuse! 33 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

1) Methodology Refinement 2) Identify Candidate JTLS CAX 3) Collect pertinent data including scenario and TTPs 4) Select and quantify appropriate data 5) Develop / test experimental design 6) Re-run CAX from check point with new TTPs 7) Evaluate / report Path Forward December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

 SOFTWARE  DATA  COCOMS  CLASSIFIED AND UNCLASS  EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN  PARALLEL SYSTEMS  LOADING AND TESTING  SUPPORT  OSD  CONGRESS  SPONSORS WELCOME SITREP DEC 2012 December 2012 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation 35

 R. Roland, PhD. USAF LTCOL (ret.)  President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation   K. Robertson, PhD.  President, Athena, Inc.   A. Hernandez, PhD. USA COL (ret.)  Professor, US Naval Postgraduate School  The BBW DST Team December © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation

Budget Based Wargaming (BBW) Decision Support Tool (DST) Presenter R. Jay Roland, PhD President, ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation Return On Investment; Software/Data/Budget

Questions? December 2012 Budget Based Wargaming Decision Support Tool (BBW-DST) 38 © ROLANDS & ASSOCIATES Corporation