Barely Sufficient Portfolio Management Todd Little and Kent McDonald So many decisions, more time than we thought

By the Book Gaming  Pools for Fools  Tools for Pools  By my Fantasy  You Betcha

The Problem(s)

The Development Funnel Evaluation and SelectionDevelopmentProjects New Products /Services

Real Funnels: Group B Research Customer Marketing Engineering Strategic Planning OEM Quality Control Cont.

Real Funnels: Group C Central Research Local Inputs Board Heat Product "A" Competitor Boot NIH Resistor (abrasion; slows down the flow) TechProd'nLogSales LAUNCH HERE RELAUNCH HERE 1 1/2 – 2 years2 – 3 hours 8 –12 months leaky

What can we do to get useful Portfolio Management?

Value Models? How Do You Determine Costs? How Do You Determine Benefits?

A Value Model?

Line Change

Value Model!

Decisions, Decisions, Decisions What do we do? When do we do it? When do we decide?

Real Options

Deciding Is Not a Once in a Lifetime Event  Knowledge Improves  Business Conditions Change  Project Conditions Change  Do You Know Why You Are Deciding Early?

ConsiderationsRisksAssumptionsConstraints

Risks – Types of Uncertainty Cost/Time Uncertainty General Market Uncertainty Feature Acceptance Uncertainty

Purpose-Based Alignment Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High Differentiating ParityWho Cares? Partner Purpose Does Not Equal Priority

Example: Health Insurance Purpose Alignment Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High Pharmacy Dental Disability Insurance Healthcare analytics Member Medical Home Claims Processing Enrollment Customer Service

Example: Apple Market Differentiating High Low Mission Critical Low High MS Office ATT Intel Peripherals New Product Design User Experience Content Distribution Software Manufacturing

By the Book Gaming Product Line2008 Head Count 2008 Revenue ($Thousands) 2009 Revenue Target ($Thousands) 2010 Revenue Target ($Thousands) Pools for Fools 88,00012,00018,000 Be My Fantasy 804,0006,000 Tools for Pools 8000 You Betcha 82,0004,0006,000 Total3210,00020,00030,000

Simulation  Get into teams  Choose a representative to the Portfolio Team  Prepare your case (25 minutes)  Pitch your case (20 minutes)  Break (finalize investment)  Simulate 2009 (20 minutes)  Revisit Investment Options (20 minutes)  Simulate 2010 (20 minutes)  Debrief (30 minutes)

Iteration 1

Iteration 2

Debrief/Retrospective

Buy the Book: Stand Back and Deliver New book by Pixton, Nickolaisen, Little, and McDonald Published by Addison Wesley in Early 2009 Drafts: /booklogin.php

Contact Todd Little    Kent J McDonald:    