Climate Observations and South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Dr. Peter Ortner Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory

90-95% reduction in wading bird population 69 plant and animal species are threatened or endangered 1.7 billion gallons of water per day (on average) are lost through discharge to the ocean 1 million acres of the ecosystem under health advisories for mercury contamination Over 1.5 million acres infested with invasive, exotic plants Coral cover declines in Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary An Ecosystem on Life Support:

What is South Florida Ecosystem Restoration (SFER)? Primary Goals: “Get the water right” (quality, quantity, timing, and distribution) Restore and enhance the natural system e.g. species diversity and habitat protection Transform the built environment e.g., urban growth and resource protection issues. Cost: – $16 Billion 1999 dollars – 30 Year Implementation – Modeling Horizon 2050

GOAL Replumb the C&SF Flood Control Project to restore ecological function to Everglades Auxiliary Goal Ensure sufficient clean water for urban and agricultural uses in South Florida Constraint Cannot impact current level of flood protection or water supply

The Plan  68 proposed features  Remove 240 miles of canals/levees  New technology for water storage  Wastewater reuse  STDA’s  $7.8 billion for construction  $182 million annually to operate

Changes in Water Flow

SFER relevant Climate Issues Sea Level Rise – Local/Global SAL/Tropical Storms AMO/Regional Precipitation Anthropogenic Desertification Coral Bleaching/Coral Growth

Beginning in 1930, the rate of relative sea level rise increased about 8 fold over that of the past 2,000 years. It is presently rising at 30 cm (1’) / 100 years! 0.7 ft in 70 years tide gauge record - NOS

In 1917 the marl ridge of Cape Sable was advertised as the finest agriculture soil. Roads and houses were built. The freshwater marsh behind was drained for cattle grazing and sugar cane. Cape Sable

The marl ridge of Cape Sable is now flooded over 80 times a year by high tides

What is forecast for the future? Given global warming, some predict a 2- to 3-foot global sea level rise by This would add to the 1-foot per century present So.Fla local rise Maximum Sea Level Rise (feet) Year Minimum

Sahel Rainfall Index (June-October Means)

Tropical Cyclone Activity vs Sahel Rainfall

Cool Atlantic Warm Atlantic But the expected frequency of major hurricanes that develop in the tropical Atlantic and affect the U.S. is also related to the phase of the Atlantic SST oscillation. They have beeen twice as frequent when the North Atlantic is in its warm phase.

Moreover U.S. rainfall is correlated with the AMO

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Therefore Lake Okeechobee inflow as well

NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Given that X years have elapsed since the last regime shift, what is the risk of a new, reverse shift in less than Y years? Ans. Before CERP is complete, nearly 90%!!!

Anthropogenic Desertification (10-15% since 1900) BUT MORE THAN NATURAL CYCLES ARE AT ISSUE

NOAA mantra: SFER must include the coastal ecosystems. They are among the most threatened and the most valuable of South Florida’s natural resources. NOAA mantra: SFER must include the coastal ecosystems. They are among the most threatened and the most valuable of South Florida’s natural resources.

FKNMS Coral Health Mean Percent Stony Coral Cover Sanctuary-wide, % 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Year Percent Stony Coral Cover Bleaching Year Bleaching Year/Georges 3 Non-Bleaching Years Bleaching causes: SST, cloud cover, UV exposure. etc.

          : Existing CREW Stations  : Planned CREW Stations Coral Reef Watch – OAR Coral Reef Watch – OAR in situ monitoring - CREWS CREOS and Expert system = real-time bleaching warnings 

Rising pCO2 (and %Sat) pose yet another challenge to So. Fla. coral reef recovery Dissolution

CONCLUSION For SFER to succeed CERP will have to adapt over time to accommodate global climate change, inter-decadal climate variability and the special regional challenges they pose Doing so will require the NOAA climate observations and analyses that yield climate understanding