ECONOMICS OF BIOENERGY GROWTH IN KANSAS 2007 Mike Woolverton and Dan OBrien Kansas State University

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ECONOMICS OF BIOENERGY GROWTH IN KANSAS 2007 Mike Woolverton and Dan OBrien Kansas State University

The Largest Economies and Oil, United States$ Trillion 2. Japan Germany China United Kingdom France Italy Canada Spain Brazil* Russia India.906

U.S. Domestic Oil Production Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency

U.S. Oil Import Suppliers, Canada 2. Mexico 3. Saudi Arabia (OPEC) 4. Venezuela (OPEC) 5. Nigeria (OPEC) 6. Algeria (OPEC) 7. Iraq (OPEC) 8. Angola (OPEC) 9. Colombia 10. Kuwait (OPEC) Source: Energy Information Administration

Sources of Total Renewable Energy Used, United States, 2006 Biomass (Biofuels) 48 Biomass (Biofuels) 48 Hydro 42 Hydro 42 Geothermal 5 Geothermal 5 Wind 4 Wind 4 Solar 1 Solar Sense of Congress Resolution – 25% by 2025 Now 6%.

Net Energy Balance ProductEnergy Out/Energy In Gasoline.81 Ethanol from grain 1.67 Ethanol from cellulose 2.00 Diesel.83 Bio-diesel 3.2 Source: Congressional Research Service, RL32712, May 18, 2006

Ethanol and Water Corn Production Rule of thumb – water 9 bu. of corn per A. or 800 to 1,000 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol or 800 to 1,000 gallons of water per gallon of ethanol (Bu./ A./ inch of water: corn - 9; wheat 4; soybeans 3) (Bu./ A./ inch of water: corn - 9; wheat 4; soybeans 3) To grow 200 bu. corn requires about 22 of water during the 5 month growing season from rain, water stored in the root zone, or irrigation. Ethanol Process Water Grain – 3.5 to 5.5 gallons water per gallon of ethanol Cellulosic ethanol may require twice as much water per gallon

Corn Usage Estimates (Millions of Bushels) USDA/WASDE USDA/WASDE USDA/WASDE USDA/WASDE 2006/ /08 est. 2006/ /08 est. Feed and Residual 5,750 5,650 1 (-2%) Food, Seed, and Industrial 1,375 1,390 2 (+1%) Ethanol for Fuel 2,150 3,200 (+49%) Net Exports 2,100 2,350 (+12%) Ending Stocks 1,137 1,897 (+67%) Total Usage 12,512 14,487 (+16%) Production 10,535 13,168 (+25%) 1 Assumes DDGS retain 30% of the feed value of corn and are included in the feed and residual category by the USDA. 2 Industrial, food, and seed less ethanol.

Local Community Impact of an Ethanol Plant (millions of dollars) 50 mgy100 mgy Annual Expenditures Gross Revenue Household Income Employment (total jobs) 836 1,573 Gross State Product Contribution of the Ethanol Industry to the Economy of the United States, John M. Urbanchuk, February 21, prepared for the Renewable Fuels Association.

Land in Crops (Millions of acres) 5 yr. Ave. 07/08USDA Proj. 08/09 5 yr. Ave. 07/08USDA Proj. 08/09 Corn (-6%) Soybeans (+9%) Hay (--) Wheat (+6%) Cotton (-10%) Grain Sorghum (-6%) Principle Crops CRP (-3%) Total crop land in the United States – million acres

Future Ethanol Technology Cellulosic Ethanol Cellulosic Ethanol Bio-butenol Bio-butenol

SUMMARY Grain-based ethanol production… - is only part of energy security. - capacity expansion will slow. - affects water resources in western areas. - is not distorting grain usage patterns. - will cause changes in cropping practices. - positively impacts rural community and state economies.