SMHI in the Arctic Lars Axell Oceanographic Research Unit Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Outline of this talk Present activities: Climate Monotoring SAF DAMOCLES Climate research at the Rossby Centre Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting Sensitivity studies using 1-D Arctic models Future activities

Cloud products of the EUMETSAT Climate Monitoring SAF Atmospheric research unit at SMHI Improvement of cloud schemes in desert and in the arctic (ongoing) Validation: SHEBA data (Oct – Oct. 1998), etc Product example: NOAA AVHRR CFC climatologies: total cloud cover - July, 2005

V1 V2 V3 Area Extension EPS - MSG Merging (?) MSG HCP NOAA Climate Monitoring SAF: Versions, operational introduction and areas Version 1 Jan 2005 Version 2 Sep 2005 Version 3 March 2007 Initial baseline area

CFCCloud Fractional Cover CTYCloud Type CTHCloud Top Height CTTCloud Top Temperature CPHCloud Phase COTCloud Optical Thickness CWPCloud Water Path Time resolution (hourly), daily, monthly, monthly mean diurnal cycle Spatial resolution (Pixel), 15 km x 15 km Climate Monitoring SAF: Cloud parameters

CM-SAF cloud products – main strengths Homogeneous product coverage over large areas – not available from any other observation source - Entire Europe, North Atlantic area and later the African and North Pole area “Objective” (or at least consistent) cloud observations - not affected by subjective interpretation of ground observers High-resolution (15 km) cloud observations with Synop-comparable quality (< 1 octa) and made both during daytime and night-time Improved information about vertical distribution of clouds Additional information on cloud physical properties - essential parameters for more advanced radiative impact studies Available from a central facility reachable from all EUMETSAT member states

Climate research at the Rossby Centre: Regional coupled model RCAO Rossby Centre research unit at SMHI Regional coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model of the Arctic Also used in DAMOCLES Coupled processes: Ice-albedo-feedbacks Surface temperature- atmosphere dynamics feedbacks Regional Climate scenarios

The model’s LW downward radiation includes a contribution for the effect of auxiliary gases. A corresponding constant is varied between 5 and 15 W/m 2 5 W/m2 10 W/m2 12,5 W/m2 15 W/m2 The strong effect on sea ice includes a positive feedback via sea ice Climate research at the Rossby Centre: Dependence of Sea Ice on Long Wave Radiation

Climate research at the Rossby Centre: Validation of clouds (Wyser et al., 2006) Reference: Wyser et al Total cloud cover at Ny Ålesund/Spitsbergen

To describe coupled processes Ice albedo formulation To describe changing coupled processes under changing large scale conditions Does the model follow year-to-year variability? Does the model follow interdecadal variability? To prevent artificial drifts Salinity Are flux corrections necessary ? Climate research at the Rossby Centre: Challenges for the future

DAMOCLES: Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting NWP and oceanographic research units at SMHI Atmosphere: High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) Operational today: 22 km, 11 km, 5.5 km Ocean: High-Resolution Operational Model for the Baltic (HIROMB) set up for the Arctic (HIROMA?) Operational today: 12 nm, 3 nm, 1 nm, (2” = 60 m in test, Brofjorden, Sweden) Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean experiments Resolution 0.1 degrees (11 km) Coupling time step 6 hours?

DAMOCLES: Atmosphere-Ocean Forecasting (cont.) Purposes: Improve prediction capabilities of NWP tools Improve monitoring (analysis) of the Arctic and Europe Focuses: Improve data assimilation procedures for sea ice, temperature, humidity, etc Improve parameterizations No results yet…

DAMOCLES: Sensitivity studies using 1-D Arctic models Coupled 1-D atmosphere-ice-ocean model Complement to 3-D model studies Sensitivity studies: Explore parameter spaces over wide ranges Meltponds

Future activities Continuation of Climate Moniroring SAF Continuation of DAMOCLES Expression of Intent #113: ”High resolution data assimilation, modelling and reanalysis for the Arctic (A reanalysis of the IPY)” Expression of Intent #154: ”The Study of Short-Term Arctic Sea Ice Predictability: Sea ice forecast research in support of International Ice Chart Working Group (IICWG) requirements (IICWG – Sea Ice Forecast Research)” No funding yet…