Model Parameter Estimation Experimant (MOPEX). Science Issues What models are most appropriate for different climatic and physiographic regions? What.

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Presentation transcript:

Model Parameter Estimation Experimant (MOPEX)

Science Issues What models are most appropriate for different climatic and physiographic regions? What are the most robust parameter estimation methods? What are the uncertainty bounds for ungauged basin applications? What are the most robust calibration methods?

Participants NWS (SWB & SAC) Meteo France (ISBA) Russian Academy of Science (SWAP) UC Berkeley / Princeton (VIC) Cemagref, France (GR4J) NCEP (NOAH) USGS (PRMS) Yamanashi University (BTOPMC) Swedish Meteor. and Hydro. Institute, Sweden (HBV) University of Alberta, Canada (SAC) University of Arizona University of Newcastle, Australia Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK Oregon State University Wageningen University, The Netherlands National Institute of Hydrology, Canada University of New Hampshire

Location of MOPEX Basins

Climatic Hydrologic Ratios desertsteppetundra forest

Annual runoff estimates

A Priori Results- Average and Standard Deviation of Daily Efficiency

A Priori Results- Average Daily Efficiency of 6- Best & Worst Basins

Calibration- Average and Standard Deviation of Daily Efficiency

Calibration- Average Daily Efficiency of 6-Best & Worst Basins

A statistical clustering (20 clusters) of the factors that define hydrologic landscapes Among-region variability in the factors is maximized and within-region variability is minimized Hydrologic landscape regions

Hydrologic landscapes: A combination of natural factors (climate, geology, and terrain) expected to affect hydrologic transport processes

Factors used to define hydrologic landscape regions Precip – Potential evapotranspiration Percent sand Bedrock permeability Topography

Expanded a priori Parameter Estimation Study Selected Basins Hydrologic Landscape Regions

GIS WEASEL

Vegetation Type (USFS) Vegetation Density (USFS) Land Use-Land Cover (USGS) DIGITAL DATABASES (1 km 2 resolution)

STATSGO - Soils Data, 1 km2 (USDA)

SW Solar Radiation Climatological monthly means Interpolated (multiple linear regression)

PET Maps Climatological Monthly Means (NOAA)

MOPEX Basins MOPEX Strategy

20 Hydrologic Landscape Regions (61 basins)

20 Hydrologic Landscape Regions (46 basins)

20 Hydrologic Landscape Regions (46 basins)

438 U.S. Basins Meet Criteria for MOPEX Basin Selection Criteria: Number of Precipitation Gages > 0.6 * Area**0.3 Gage Density vs Basin Size Location of basins with Adequate gage density

International Contributed Data Sets (58 basins to date) Australia – University of Melbourne U.K. – CEH France – Meteo France China

Possible Additional Basins Germany Sweden Austria Tanzania Global monthly (UNH) Canada Japan Brazil Others?