POSOH – ForCLIMATE Research “Retreat!” Jun 2013 Prof. Ankur Desai University of Wisconsin-Madison

FORest and Climate Leaders In Menominee and The Environment!

Where are we?

Three Big Ideas Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people

Three Big Ideas Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide

Three Big Ideas Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide Ecosystems and its constituents play a big and complicated role through the global carbon cycle and currently absorb half of our fossil fuel emissions

The Plan Introductions Schedule and Logistics Big Ideas!

Introductions Name Where are you from? What do you do/what year are you in school? What did you want to be when you were 10? What will you be doing 10 years from now?

Logistics Goal is to provide exposure to research methods in global change science and ecosystem ecology We will study atmosphere, soils, lakes, and vegetation Be prepared for field conditions (bugs, rain)! Food! Sleeping! Fun!

Schedule Weekend 1 –Friday Welcome / Team Building Dinner! Bonfire –Saturday Morning: Activity block 1 Afternoon: Activity block 2 Evening: Dinner out + Medicine Wheel teachings –Sunday Morning: Activity block 3 Afternoon: Activity block 4 Evening: Dinner out + Climate change policy discussion –Monday Reflections Lunch and clean up

Activity blocks Here at Kemp: –Lakes –Satellites and meteorology At Willow Creek: –Soils –Vegetation and carbon

What makes our current era unique? What will we be remembered for 1,000 years from now?

Three Big Ideas Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people

If the World were 100 PEOPLE: 50 would be female 50 would be male 26 would be children There would be 74 adults, 8 of whom would be 65 and older There would be: 60 Asians 15 Africans 14 people from the Americas 11 Europeans There would be 33 Christians 22 Muslims 14 Hindus 7 Buddhists 12 people who practice other religions 12 people who would not be aligned with a religion

12 would speak Chinese 5 would speak Spanish 5 would speak English 3 would speak Arabic 3 would speak Hindi 3 would speak Bengali 3 would speak Portuguese 2 would speak Russian 2 would speak Japanese 62 would speak other languages 83 would be able to read and write; 17 would not 7 would have a college degree 22 would own or share a computer 77 people would have a place to shelter them from the wind and the rain, but 23 would not 1 would be dying of starvation 15 would be undernourished 21 would be overweight 87 would have access to safe drinking water 13 people would have no clean, safe water to drink

Total Global Emissions Total global emissions: 10.4±0.7PgC in 2011, 37% over 1990 Percentage land-use change: 36% in 1960, 18% in 1990, 9% in 2011 Land-use change black line: Includes management-climate interactions Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012Le Quéré et al. 2012Global Carbon Project 2012

Three Big Ideas Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide

Do you believe in global warming? What is climate? Why is the earth like a greenhouse? What is electromagnetic radiation? What is a greenhouse gas?

Do you believe in global warming? What is climate? –The average weather in some area over a long length of time like 30 years

IPCC

Do you believe in global warming? What is climate? Why is the earth like a greenhouse? –Earth’s surface absorbs energy from the sun and heats the air above, which absorbs and emits electromagnetic radiation, which further heats the surface

Do you believe in global warming? What is climate? Why is the earth like a greenhouse? What is electromagnetic radiation? –All objects in the universe emit radiation (light), whose amount and type depend on temperature and its structure. The sun emits visible light, the earth mostly emits infrared light

Do you believe in global warming? What is climate? Why is the earth like a greenhouse? What is electromagnetic radiation? What is a greenhouse gas? –Most of air is oxygen and nitrogen, which does not absorb much infrared radiation, but water vapor and carbon dioxide can absorb quite a bit. Gases that absorb infrared radiation efficiently are greenhouse gases

IPCC

Born 19 February 1859( ) Vik, Sweden Vik Died 2 October 1927( ) (aged 68) Stockholm, Sweden Stockholm NationalitySwedish FieldsPhysicsPhysics, chemistrychemistry Institutions Royal Institute of Technology Alma mater Uppsala University Stockholm University Doctoral advisor Per Teodor ClevePer Teodor Cleve, Erik EdlundErik Edlund Doctoral studentsOskar Benjamin Klein Known for Arrhenius equation Theory of ionic dissociation Acid-base theory Notable awards Nobel Prize for ChemistryNobel Prize for Chemistry (1903) Franklin Medal (1920 Franklin Medal Svante Arrhenius To explain the ice age, Arrhenius estimated that halving of CO 2 would decrease temperatures by °C (Celsius) and a doubling of CO 2 would cause a temperature rise of °C. In his 1906 publication, Arrhenius adjusted the value downwards to 1.6 °C (including water vapour feedback: 2.1 °C). Recent (2007) estimates from IPCC say this value (the Climate sensitivity) is likely to be between 2 and 4.5 °C. Arrhenius expected CO 2 doubling to take about 3000 years; it is now estimated in most scenarios to take about a century. IPCCClimate sensitivity

IPCC

Time for a break?