UK Population Change and Housing Across the Lifecourse June, 2015, University of St Andrews Asset based welfare and housing wealth inequalities Dr Beverley Searle 1

2 The new rhetoric of generational conflict: ‘The Government cannot carry all these risks and costs, but there is much it can do to help people prepare:... to make it easier to harness the value in people’s homes to support the costs and risks of later years’ ‘The Government should help people be better informed about… how best to use their own assets, so that individuals and families can analyse their own situations and make their own informed choices’ (House of Lords, 2013)

Is there a case for using housing wealth for welfare? 3

4 The case against using housing wealth for welfare

5 Source: Author’s analysis of Understanding Society The case against using housing wealth for welfare

Distribution of housing equity*: England *House values minus mortgage debt

Is downsizing a solution? 7 Releasing £75k needs equity of £200k (Fox O’Mahoney, 2013) England: threshold for contribution £118,000  33% of older owners will be under the threshold.  28% will be over the threshold without sufficient equity.  39% will be over the threshold with sufficient equity

Regional imbalance in population change 8 Population Projections Scottish Regions:

9 Regional imbalance in population change

Tenure change trajectories

What is the future for housing based welfare (in England)? 11 Source: Population Projections, EHS; Authors calculation

12 Tenure of occupied home Owns additional property (in the UK) N % of households Own outright716, Buying with a mortgage773, PRS236, HA17, LA9, Total1,754, In 8% of households someone owns an additional property

13 87% of additional property is used by someone else as their main residence (includes rent-free): ‘landlords’ 47% of ‘landlords’ are located in the top 20% of households

14 Intergenerational Justice – or just plain old inequality? “To pit people and places with every advantage against those with none and praise the former for their superior fortitude is age-old devious nonsense” (Diprose, 2015, p51). Housing asset-based welfare whilst pitched as a solution to the fiscal challenges of ageing populations, ignores the problem of inequality – not all older people have, or will have, enough equity in their home to cover the costs of their care.

15 Thank you 15