Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1

What is CERO? Developed for an energy sector with large complexity: a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players b) need for tailor-made cost-benefit assessments of alternative travel policies c) Applicable for benchmarking to spread good examples Engages a broad range of experts and researchers: –Statisticians –Economists –Behaviourists –Travel managers –Technical implementers Developed in a doctoral thesis at KTH: ”Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies”

Developed with empirical support from large organizations

Macro economic effects from 10% traffic reductions in Stockholm county (Robèrt och Jonsson, 2006) -750 MSEK accident costs -360 MSEK emission costs -570 MSEK in vehicle time costs (  = 1,68 Billion SEK/year)

Large organizations are important actors Decision-makers Individuals Can facilitate market-oriented traffic planning Can utilize positive ”group mentality” Motivated to spread good examples

Why climate targets and travel strategies?

“In today’s global market, companies would only do this for two reasons: to cut costs, and to improve marketing advantage” Rye (1999)

Travel costs and emissions walk hand i hand - Short-term cost cut potential: Euro/1000 employees and year

- “Indirect values” of showing best practice IT-sector, energy sector, transport sector, public authorities…

- Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)

CERO is based on backcasting Travel policiesMappingTarget

Why backcasting? If we know the target, why not use it? Avoid “path-dependency”, focusing on current obstacles and constraints We might well approach a paradigmatic shift where traditional forecasting is insufficient

Target description “X% CO2 reductions in consistency with travel cost reductions and employee acceptance”

Mapping

Benchmarking

Internal benchmarking (LFV)

Problem with climate targets: % - reductions are appropriate for emission audits but hard to follow-up in policy terms %CO 2

Designing target-oriented travel policies %CO 2

Transforming the backcasting target

Why transforming the emission target? Facilitates efficiency rankings, cost-benefit analyses and follow-ups between alternative policies Reduces the level of “fuzziness” regarding potential emission impacts Helps strategic planning by keeping track on factors that might change over time (u 1, u 2, N, s, Y…)

Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions (commute trips) 31 car commuters switch to public transport Train tickets to 4 commuters with longest commute distance Encourage 38 car commuters to renewable fuel cars Allow telecommuting at least once a month Offer eco-driving to at least ¼ of staff Encourage at least 191 car commuters with commute distance 0,5-6km to cycle

Replace 7% of business trips by car to public transport Annual cost reduction 1,1 Mkr Replace 4% of business trips by car to virtual meetings Annual cost reduction 2,3 Mkr Replace all business trips with private car to car sharing Costs unchanged Replace 2% of aviation trips abroad to virtual meetings Cost reduction kr Replace 3% av domestic aviation to train Cost reduction kr Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions (business trips)

A policy package targeting 40% CO 2 -reductions…

Labour productivity effects

Climate compensation as a last step… + Could increase profitability from emission reductions - Could pacify good local initiatives and ideas Renewable energy use Climate compensations Energy use Year

The CERO process

Some success factors –lessons learnt…

1. Launch a start-up meeting and invite top- management and a variety of executives -Environment-, economy-, purchase-, staffmanagement,… -The ones forgotten might turn against you! -Help them make friends: -Who does what and why? -Reach consensus and make them want this!

“Is your boss a role model?” 2. Influence group mentality -competitions, campaigns, follow ups

- Concerns individuals, municipalities, companies, countries… 3. Why should I when everybody else…?

-economy -health benefits -time savings -working conditions -image, PR … 4. Focus on other “utility aspects”

To sum up: - Make climate travel targets tangible - Identify economically optimized strategies - Emphasize employee benefits - Apply benchmarking to spread ”best practice”

Thank you!