Beverly Law and students, Oregon State University Ron Neilson and MAPSS team, Pacific Northwest Research Station Climate Impacts Group, University of Washington Chris Ringo, ecology tech team

Northwest expected to warm 2 degrees C by the 2040s and 3.3 degrees C by the 2080s Area burned by fire expected to double by 2040s and triple by 2080s --Climate Impacts Group

Variability in el Nino-la Nina events and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) will increase, causing more intense winter storms Short-term outlook is warmer and wetter As warming further increases, expect increased summer drought

More winter precipitation as rain Earlier spring melt means lower summer flows 2 degrees C increase in next 20 years means 25 percent less snowpack …….a coming water crisis in the West (Barnett et al. 2008)

Initially growth may increase since carbon dioxide has a fertilizer effect But with prolonged warming some areas will become more water limited, growth will decrease, and fire risk will increase

Tree regeneration may become more difficult on lower elevation sites and better at higher elevations Whitebark pine will be at high risk of loss due to multiple stressors Species shifts are likely to be gradual

Climate-Informed Vegetation Vulnerability Climate-Induced Vegetation Shifts Neilson, USGS Models, Veg Synthesis Climate-Informed Wildlife Population Vulnerability Species Ability to Adapt Data source Recall vulnerability assessment

Proceed carefully Neilson and MAPPS group projections Look at range of possible outcomes rather than specific future

Current ClimateCGCM1 MAPSS Simulated Vegetation Distribution Coarse-Level Physiognomic Classification Possible Future Woody Expansion, and Carbon Sequestration

More carbon dioxide, warmer and wetter winters mean more growth and carbon accumulation If this is followed by pronounced summer droughts, higher risk of fire This is true Region-wide, but the change will be most pronounced in the west Cascades

Build planning efforts for an uncertain future, not any specific one We are looking at various possible scenarios and using them to bracket the range of possibilities

The best climate change strategy is a rigorous, viable restoration policy to make landscapes resilient to a variety of possible futures.

We have to take climate change seriously, not because we know what the future will be, but because we dont. --The Economist