Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd Brouns Research Group „Energy, Transport, and Climate Policy” 11th EADI General Conference Panel “Environment and Human Rights” 23 September 2005

2 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy The climate is already changing...

3 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere

4 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Global average surface temperature

5 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Kilimanjaro (Tanzania)

6 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Upsala Glacier (Argentina)

7 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” (IPCC 2001)

8 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Vulnerability of human societies and natural systems due to I.Increased frequency and/or severity of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, heat waves, avalanches, and windstorms. II.Slow but continuous change of climatic conditions such as temperature increase, sea level rise, change of precipitation patterns, ice melting. Future impacts of climate change

9 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy Bewertungsskala: --, -, 0, +, ++

10 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy  Increases in precipitation will occur during high flow season but may not alleviate dry season problems.  Most vulnerable regions are central Asia, southern Africa and countries around the Mediterranean Sea.  Climate change increases water resource stresses in some regions, but decreases them in others.  People living in water-stressed regions from 1.7 million to around 5 million by Projected impacts on water availability Source: IPCC (2001); Arnell (2004)

11 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy  Crop yield responses to climate change vary widely.  Even though increased CO 2 concentration can stimulate crop growth and yield, that benefit may not always overcome the adverse effects of excessive heat and drought.  In some temperate areas potential Projected impacts on agriculture and food security Source: IPCC (2001); Parry et al. (2004) yield increase for small increases of temperature but decrease with larger temperature changes; In most (sub)tropical regions potential yields are projected to decrease for most projected increases of temperature.  Climate change will worsen food security in Africa.

12 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy “Those with the least resources have the least capacity to adapt and are the most vulnerable.” (IPCC 2001)

13 Panel “Environment and Human Rights” Climate Change as a Threat to Livelihoods in the South Bernd BrounsWuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy  For climate policy: The definition of long-term climate goals must take into account the human rights of those who are most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.  For human rights policy: climate change endangers basic rights of people and its economic/social/cultural survival. What does that mean?

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