Overall goal of CLIVAR/PAGES intersection: To improve the understanding of decadal to centennial climate variability The IGBP-PAGES WCRP-CLIVAR Intersection activity

PAGES Areas of Interest

CLIVAR Areas of Interest

PAGES / CLIVAR in the past: History - Developed in the early 90’s - to improve understanding of decadal to century scale climate variability - high-resolution paleoclimatic data to improve the predictability of change (corals, tree-rings, varved sediments and ice cores,...) Topics dynamics of low-latitude climate change global ocean thermohaline variability regional-to-global scale hydrologic variability dynamics of abrupt climatic change model evaluation and improvement climate change detection ESF conference series, research initiatives (ARTS, PMIP)

PAGES / CLIVAR- the past MEETINGS: Venice meeting 1999: Linking modeling-data communityVenice meeting 1999: Linking modeling-data community Il Ciocco, Italy, 2001: Abrupt Climate ChangeIl Ciocco, Italy, 2001: Abrupt Climate Change Hadley Cell workshop 2002: Merging of P/C scientistsHadley Cell workshop 2002: Merging of P/C scientists Drought workshop, US 2003: International networkingDrought workshop, US 2003: International networking ESF, Spain, 2003: Linking modeling-data communityESF, Spain, 2003: Linking modeling-data community PMIP MeetingsPMIP Meetings The Paleoclimate Intercomparison Project (PMIP)The Paleoclimate Intercomparison Project (PMIP) P/C networking within other programs (EPICA/IMAGES)P/C networking within other programs (EPICA/IMAGES) P/C addressed some IPCC questions - Paleo chapter in next report!P/C addressed some IPCC questions - Paleo chapter in next report!

PAGES/CLIVAR present and future Reconstitution and revision: C/P-intersection working group meeting; Victoria, Canada, November 2004 Developed new vision to reflect more specific issues, based on paleo-reconstruction, instrumental data analysis, and modeling, Co-chairs: Gavin Schmidt (CLIVAR) Eystein Jansen (PAGES)

PAGES / CLIVAR: new vision Key scientific issues Climate variability over the last few millennia Abrupt climate change - extreme events Hydrologic, biospheric, land-surface interactions: Constrain/evaluate models; Expansion of the PMIP activities Tropical-extratropical links including ocean and atmospheric teleconnections Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation issues: Outreach - workshops - link model/data communities

Climate Variability - Past Millennia There is a need to understand the processes and their regional significance!

Climate Variability - Past Millennia Assessment and improvement of models... Jones and Mann, 2004

Luterbacher et al Europe and Northern Hemisphere: 500-year temperature variability Climate Variability - Past Millennia... and reconstructions.

Merge the regional information for a global view! Detect key regions for T / P reconstructions. Some activity already started in Europe and S- America, Antarctica in prep. Climate Variability - Past Millennia

Influence of the forcing by the El Chichón and Pinatubo eruptions on the global winter (DJF) surface pressure (a) (hPa) and temperature (b) (ºC) anomaly fields in the first and second winter after the eruption. Kistler et al. 2001, Rayner et al. 2003, Wanner 2004 Climate Variability - Past Millennia

Funded by EPRI (Electric Power Research Institute), PAGES and CLIVAR

Climate Variability - Past Millennia Sub-themes -Forcing and modeling -Methods of multiproxy reconstructions -Model/data comparison -Spatial patterns of past climate change

Abrupt Climate Change: Is abrupt change likely under anthropogenic influence? Grootes et al “8.2 ky event” Clarke et al. 2003

Modeled response to meltwater influx into the N. Atlantic Simulation of 8.2 ky meltwater event Incl. forward modeling of proxies. Abrupt Climate Change: Temperature °CPrecipitation mm/day LeGrande et al., 2006, PNAS  18 O precip ‰  18 O seawater ‰

Abrupt Climate Change: PAGES/CLIVAR workshop “Rapid Climate Changes and the 8.2 ka Event” (with UK RAPID Program) October 2006, UK

Future expansion of PMIP activities! Hydrol. Biol. Land Surface Interactions: Kohfeld et al., 2000 Kohfeld and Harisson, ka reconstructions: The Biome 6000 project:

Tropical-extratropical Linkages: Close interaction is expected between the CLIVAR Southern Ocean Panel and the PAGES/IMAGES Southern Ocean program, in addition to obvious links, already established (PAGES, old PANASH community). Other issues of joint interest between PAGES and CLIVAR include the NAO, PDO, Monsoons, IOD with regard to past strength and activity. ENSO

Overarching and Cross-cutting Implementation Joint Publication: Exchanges - PAGES News in 2005 “Climate Forcings”

MedCLIVAR MedCLIVAR: - a regional variability group for the mediterranean region is supposed to constitute based on a joint MedCLIVAR/PAGES workshop planned for Luterbacher et al. 2005

MedCLIVAR PAGES/MedCLIVAR workshop “Past Climate in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East” November 2006, Spain

LOTRED-SA Workshop “South American Climate Variability” October 2006, Argentina Long-Term climate REconstruction and Dynamics of South America

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