שינוי אקלימ במיזרח הים התיכון לפי תוצאות של אנסמבל של מודלים שינוי אקלימ במיזרח הים התיכון לפי תוצאות של אנסמבל של מודלים שמעון קריצ'אק & רנה סמואלס בשיתוף עם: פינחס אלפרט, יוסף ברייטגנד, יצחק כרמונה,חיים שפיר החוג לגיאופיסיקה, אוניברסיטת תל אביב

Warm-colored areas on the map represent drying trends. Cool-colored areas represent moistening trends. Dai, 2011

Significant climate change trends in the past are evident

Rahmstorf & Ganopolski, Climatic Change, : p Air-temperature anomaly - current vs. multi-year mean Adapted from Markus Erhard Thomas Voigt Jelle van Minnen, Marc Zebisch David Viner SICCIA Conference, Grainau,

1976–1999: Southern Europe: decrease Mid and northern Europe: increase Precipitation Extremes Very heavy precipitation days (p >= 20mm) Changes in 1976–1999 Data-source: ECA, IPCC, ACACIA, KMNI future projection past trends Adapted from Markus Erhard Thomas Voigt Jelle van Minnen, Marc Zebisch David Viner SICCIA Conference, Grainau,

1976–1999: Number of cold and frost days decreased Number of summer days increased Temperature Extremes Summer days (Tmax >= 25 °C) Changes in 1976–1999 Data-sources: ECA, IPCC, ACACIA, KMNI future projection past trends Adapted from Markus Erhard Thomas Voigt Jelle van Minnen, Marc Zebisch David Viner SICCIA Conference, Grainau,

Europe’s Climate is Abnormal  European temperatures are 5-10 °C higher than normal very heavy precipitation days (p >= 20mm) Changes in 1976–1999

Europe’s Climate is Abnormal  European temperatures are 5-10 °C higher than normal Very heavy precipitation days (p >= 20mm) Changes in 1976–1999 The situation is much less evident in the case of the Middle East The situation is much less evident in the case of the Middle East

What will happen in the future?

Climate Models: Schematic

IPCC Scenarios A1B – Moderate Growth Rapid Economic Growth Low Population Growth Efficient Technology Economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, Reduction in regional differences in per capita income personal wealth trumps environmental quality. Fossil fuel emissions increase until 2050 and decrease thereafter. CO2 concentration to about 700 ppm by B1- Slow Growth Balanced Economic development Equitable income distribution Population growth as in A1 Service and information economy, with reductions in materials intensity Introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies Priorities include equity, social institutions, and environmental protection. CO2 concentration to about 540 ppm by (IPCC 2007; Raupach et al., 2007)

GCM Simulations: All Forcings 58 Simulations 14 Models Solar, volcanic effects? Internal variability? Aerosols? Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (°C) from observations (black) and AOGCM simulations forced with (a) both anthropogenic and natural forcings and (b) natural forcings only. All data are shown as global mean temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black, Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set (HadCRUT3); Brohan et al., 2006) and, in (a) as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 models with both anthropogenic and natural forcings. The multi-model ensemble mean is shown as a thick red curve and individual simulations are shown as thin yellow curves. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic events. Those simulations that ended before 2005 were extended to 2005 by using the first few years of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario simulations that continued from the respective 20th-century simulations, where available. The simulated global mean temperature anomalies in (b) are from 19 simulations produced by five models with natural forcings only. The multi-model ensemble mean is shown as a thick blue curve and individual simulations are shown as thin blue curves. Simulations are selected that do not exhibit excessive drift in their control simulations (no more than 0.2°C per century). Each simulation was sampled so that coverage corresponds to that of the observations. Further details of the models included and the methodology for producing this figure are given in the Supplementary Material, Appendix 9.C. After Stott et al. (2006b).. Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (°C) from observations (black) and AOGCM simulations forced with (a) both anthropogenic and natural forcings and (b) natural forcings only. All data are shown as global mean temperature anomalies relative to the period 1901 to 1950, as observed (black, Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set (HadCRUT3); Brohan et al., 2006) and, in (a) as obtained from 58 simulations produced by 14 models with both anthropogenic and natural forcings. The multi-model ensemble mean is shown as a thick red curve and individual simulations are shown as thin yellow curves. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic events. Those simulations that ended before 2005 were extended to 2005 by using the first few years of the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario simulations that continued from the respective 20th- century simulations, where available. The simulated global mean temperature anomalies in (b) are from 19 simulations produced by five models with natural forcings only. The multi-model ensemble mean is shown as a thick blue curve and individual simulations are shown as thin blue curves. Simulations are selected that do not exhibit excessive drift in their control simulations (no more than 0.2°C per century). Each simulation was sampled so that coverage corresponds to that of the observations. Source: Source: AR4-WG-1 IPCC Chapter 9 - Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

19 IPCC models ( km resolution) – Range of results

Why Ensembles?  To account for real climate variability  To possibly overcome uncertainties (data, model approximations, emission scenarios, etc.) (data, model approximations, emission scenarios, etc.)

Mediterranean area

Mediterranean drying: A unanimous model agreement The change in annual mean P - E over the Mediterranean region (10°W to 50°W and 30°N to 45°N, land areas only) for 19 models (listed at left), relative to model climatologies from (after Seager et al., Science, 2007). [Seager, Kushnir, et al, personal communication]

Regional Climate Modeling

Results from three Ensembles RegCM-Israel(TAU)/Turkey Scenarios – A1B, B1 GCM – ECHAM, Hadley RCM – RegCM GLOWA Scenarios – A1B GCM – ECHAM, Hadley RCM – MM5, RegCM

RegCM-Israel/Turkey

RegCM RCM Model Configuration Ensemble Member SRESGCM 11A1BECHAM 13A1BECHAM 11B1ECHAM 21B1ECHAM 1A1BHADLEY

Summer Temperature Running means of +11 years for Central Israel. ΔT [K]

Winter Precipitation Running means of +11 years for Central Israel. Δrain [mm/season]

Temperature Change [K] in the summer (JJA) between future ( ) to past ( ) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B-3 HADLEY A1B 2.5K 3.5K 2.5K 4K 3K 1 ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B-1

שינויים בטמפורטורה קיצית (JJA ) בין העתיד ( ) והעבר ( ) עבור שני תרחישים שונים של פליטות גזי החממה, B1A ו 1B. התוצאות המוצגות הם ממוצע של מספר ריצות של המודל. B1A1B

Winter Precipitation [mm/season] changes between future ( ) to past ( ) ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B-3 HADLEY A1B 1 ECHAM5 B11 ECHAM5 A1B-1

שינויים בכמות הגשם השנתי בין העתיד ( ) והעבר ( ) עבור שני תרחישים שונים של פליטות גזי החממה, B1A ו 1B. התוצאות המוצגות הם ממוצע של מספר ריצות של המודל. B1A1B

GLOWA JR

Why Indicators?  To describe what happens in our environment summarizing state, impacts, past and future trends, data availability, uncertainties and further needs  To raise public awareness explaining relevance  To support (policy) decision making showing vulnerability and need for adaptation DPSIR Assessment Framework of the EEA Technical Report No 25:

Precipitation indicators: Seasonal Mean Mean Precip Growing Season Mean Annual Precip

Precipitation indicators: Extremes # Rain Days Over 20mm # Rain Days Over 50mm Consecutive Dry Days

36 Temperature Indicator: Area Mean Mean Temp Growing Season Mean Annual Temp

. Samuels R., G. Smiatek, S. Krichak, H. Kunstmann, P. Alpert (2012), JGR (in press).

Thank you!