Sustainable Development Indicators relevant to Climate Change: India’s Experience Prodipto Ghosh, Ph.D Distinguished Fellow The Energy & Resources Institute UNDESA: Expert Group Meeting October 2008

2 Outline of Presentation The name of the game! Relevant normalizations of indicators Sustainability trajectories The real issue for developing countries: adaptation

3 The Name of the Game: Blame India, China, Brazil…

4 HDI and Energy Consumption Modern energy use is critical for development Modern energy use is critical for development Over 450 million people without access to electricity. Over 450 million people without access to electricity. India needs GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic and social well being. This is not possible without increased energy use. India needs GDP growth of 8%+ over the next 25 years to lift the bottom 40% of her citizens to an acceptable level of economic and social well being. This is not possible without increased energy use. We must be able to pursue accelerated social and economic development, and poverty eradication. GDP growth rate of 8%+ per annum over years is essential to lift the bottom 40% of our population to an acceptable quality of life. Development and poverty eradication is also an imperative for adaptation to climate change We must be able to pursue accelerated social and economic development, and poverty eradication. GDP growth rate of 8%+ per annum over years is essential to lift the bottom 40% of our population to an acceptable quality of life. Development and poverty eradication is also an imperative for adaptation to climate change 4

5 Energy is Critical For Development and Improving HDI 5

6 6 Present day per capita CO 2 emissions - those at the top of the curve want the ones at the bottom to take action to combat climate change! Cumulative per capita emissions from 1850 to 2004 for UK and USA is 1100 tons! For India it is 23 tons! 6

7 Relevant Normalizations of Sustainability Indicators:

8 8 Source: TERI analysis (various data sources)

9 Into the Trash It Goes The food an American family throws away each month. New York Times: May 18, 2008.

10 Average rate of recycling (%) (excl. re-use) GHG emissions from waste (gm/’000$GDPppp) Municipal solid waste Source: TERI Analysis, based on National Communications of different countries

11 Estimated CO 2 emissions from passenger transport (gm/passenger-km) Source: TERI Analysis, various data sources

12 The Importance of Development Trajectories:

13 Sustainable Development Trajectories: Kuznets curves: During a country’s development, several development related indicators at first worsen, and then improve Historically, with environmental Kuznets curves, present developed societies have shown turning points at c. $ PPP per capita

14 Income: PPP$ per capita Indicato r c. PPP$ 7000 (Typical for current developed countries) Schematic representation of the Environmental Kuznets curve

15 CountryTurning Point PPP$ per capita Sri Lanka4,092 Bangladesh1,377 India501 Japan22,675 Switzerland26,122 Norway10, 274 Turning Points: Energy Intensity Parameter: Kgoe per PPP$ GDP Source: Econometric analysis by TERI, based on IEA data, 2008

16 India’s turning point for energy intensity was reached in the 1980s Source: Planning Commission

17 The fossil fuel CO2 intensity of the Indian economy in 2004 was the same as Japan; better than Germany! Data: “Growth and CO2 Emissions – How do different countries fare?” : Roger Bacon and Soma Bhattacharya: World Bank, 2007:

18 Source: BEE, 2007

19 Specific Energy Consumption in Integrated Steel Plants Source: Steel Authority of India Ltd. 22% reduction in SEC from to Actual impact higher as share of D/R rising

20 Source: BEE, 2007

21 Cement: Energy Consumption Profile (Dry Process - Wtd. Avg.) THERMAL ENERGY KCAL/KG CL. ELECTRICAL ENERGY KWH/T CEMENT BEST IN INDIA BEST IN WORLD Source: CMA WET KILNS: INDIA 5% US 18% SHARE OF BLENDED CEMENT OVER 60%

22 Source: BEE, 2007

23 India has the world’s most energy efficient oil refinery! Source: Shell Global benchmarking study in ‘Energy & Loss’ performance

24 CountrySO2SPMNOxSource 11 OECD 6,9007,30014,700CRB India523 MK Sources:CRB: Cole et.al., 1997; MK: Mukherjee and Kathuria, 2006 EKC Curves: Turning Points for Air Quality, PPP$ per capita

25 CountryBODCODStudy 32 Countries average 7,6237,853GK India5481,668TERI EKC Curves: Water Quality: Turning Points for BOD and COD PPP$ per capita Sources: GK: Grossman and Krueger, 1995; TERI: The Energy & Resources Institute, 2008

26 The Real Climate Change Issue for Developing Countries: The Costs of Adaptation

27 Reality check! India’s fiscal expenditures on programs directly related to adaptation to climate variability was 2.63% of GDP in !

28 Where the money went… Development is the best form of adaptation!

29 India Doesn’t Need Lesson’s on Sustainability!

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