Nuclear Power in a Carbon- Constrained Energy Future Timothy J. Leahy Idaho National Laboratory October 26, 2010

9 billion 2050 Estimated Population

Energy is the Fuel of National Prosperity Source: Royal Dutch Shell, “Exploring the Future - Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities

Per capita Electricity Consumption vs. Per capita GDP for various nations of the world Per capita Electricity Consumption vs. Per capita GDP for various nations of the world Per capita GDP (purchase power parity US $) Correlation Between Electricity Consumption & GDP

Extent of Summer Sea Ice 2007 – Smallest Summer Sea Ice Extent in Recorded History – 1 Million Square Miles vs. Previous Low of 1.5 Million Square Miles (2005) (source: European Space Agency)

6 U.S. Energy Landscape — Our Challenge U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector, 2008 TOTAL 5,849 Million Metric Tons CO 2 -equivalent U.S. Primary Energy Consumption by Source and Sector, 2008 (Quadrillion Btu) Supply Source Demand Sector 83% Fossil Source: EIA Annual Energy Review, 2008

Source IEA : Energy to Scenarios for a Sustainable Future The additional needs will mainly come from large developing Countries: China, India, Brazil… Energy Supply Will Increase to Meet Global Demand Jacques Bouchard, GLOBAL 2007

8 Nuclear Energy Today and in the Near Future United States 20% of our electricity Number one source of emission-free electricity 104 reactors in operation 13 license applications for 22 reactors currently under review by the NRC International 16 countries rely on nuclear to supply at least one-quarter of their total electricity 333 reactors in operation outside the U.S. 437 reactors in 30 countries generating 15% of the world’s electricity — 55 new reactors under construction worldwide

Source: IAEA 2006 Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions CO 2 emission rates for electricity generating alternatives (storage: batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air storage; CCS Carbon Capture and Storage) (Weisser 2007) Lignite

10 Meeting America’s Energy Challenge — Context Modern human existence is energy dense – Not likely to change – Costs and consequences – Not just a U.S. problem Production, distribution and consumption of energy has costs, risks and environmental impacts Energy infrastructures are expensive and time consuming to change. Advocates / Opponents

11 Meeting America’s Energy Challenge — Technology Technology is a Means to an End – We are responsible for its impacts today and tomorrow – Demonizing or romanticizing will not lead to good decision making We must better understand and manage technology. Source: World Resource Institute

12 Meeting America’s Energy Challenge… Requires respect for and understanding of technology and implications of its use Requires vision and leadership – collaboratively from government and industry The Time is Now!