Turkish Sugar Authority Ankara, Turkey 29 September 2005 “What is going on in the World of Sugar?” Dr Peter Baron Executive Director International Sugar Organization

Key Drivers Demand Demand Supply Supply Government policy reform (unilateral and multilateral) Government policy reform (unilateral and multilateral) Diversification (biofuel option, electricity cogeneration) Diversification (biofuel option, electricity cogeneration) Emerging drivers Emerging drivers – Gene technology – Biodegradable plastics – Climate change agenda

Population and sugar consumption

Per capita consumption and per capita income

Future sugar consumption growth by geographical region

Production and consumption

Sugar, India

Sugar, Brazil

Cane to sugar and ethanol, Brazil

Turkish Sugar Authority Ankara, Turkey 29 September 2005 “What is going on in the World of Sugar?” Dr Peter Baron Executive Director International Sugar Organization

Conclusions Consumption growth remains healthy ( % per annum); Production capacity in lower-cost producing countries, particularly in Brazil, sufficient to meet consumption without depleting global stocks; By the end of this decade Sugar Policy Reform will have advanced to a point where higher-cost, uncompetitive production falters and subsidised exports, as well as market access restrictions, disappear;

Conclusions Ethanol programmes will, in the future, compete more aggressively for sugar crops, providing another revenue stream for many sugar industries; Ethanol programmes will, in the future, compete more aggressively for sugar crops, providing another revenue stream for many sugar industries; Sugar industries which cannot embrace change by improving productivity and efficiency will be under serious threat. Sugar industries which cannot embrace change by improving productivity and efficiency will be under serious threat.