The Wiki and the Blog NIH Wiki Fair D. Calvin Andrus Chief Technology Officer Center for Mission Innovation Central Intelligence Agency 28 February 2007

2 Battle of New Orleans

28 February Operation Iraqi Freedom

28 February Intelligence - Policy Time Compression

28 February Arms Race v.s. Times Race Rapid responses are required to maintain tactical and strategic advantages over those who would do the United States harm

28 February Rapid Turnover and Genetic Research Family: Drosophilidae Maturity: 14 Days Gestation: 10 Days Offspring: 500 Family: Elephantidae Maturity: 11 Years Gestation: 22 Months Offspring: 1

28 February Rapid Policy Turnover and Intelligence Cold War Global War on Terrorism

28 February We Must Adapt to Change The US National Security Communityand the Intelligence Community within itis faced with the issue of how to operate in a security environment that, by its nature, is changing rapidly in ways we cannot predict. A simple answer is that the Intelligence Community, by its nature, must change rapidly in ways we cannot predict.

28 February Allow Learning to Change Us We must transform the Intelligence Community into a community that dynamically reinvents itself by continuously learning and adapting as the national security environment changes.

28 February Begin Detour Here... On our way to suggesting an answer, let us consider the ideas of those who have already wrestled with similar issues...

28 February What do These Have in Common? Alan Turing, Ant Hill Adam Smiths Invisible Hand Fractals The Butterfly Effect General System Theory

28 February Complexity Theory They are all examples of a extremely diverse body of thought that has recently been codified as Complexity Theory. Complex Adaptive Behavior is a basic tenet of this theory and is characterized by: –Cooperative individual behavior –Emergence of a community –Adaptation to feedback

28 February Complex Adaptive Behavior

28 February Complexity Theory Suggests that from intelligence officers who are allowed to share information and act upon it within a simple tradecraft regime will emerge an intelligence community that continuously and dynamically reinvents itself in response to the needs of the national security environment.

28 February Technology Can Enable Complex Adaptive Behavior in Human Knowledge Workers

28 February One Model to Follow...

28 February Wiki Home Page

28 February Soggy Sweat

28 February Discussion

28 February Talk Update

28 February Sweat Update

28 February Capabilities Wikis Bring Because Wikis are real-time, self-authored, hyperlinked bodies of knowledge that are open to everyone on the system, they can adapt as fast as a person can enter information. With the addition of –knowledgebase, –search, and –feedback tools, contributors can know--in real time--how the knowledge is received, and thus can make adjustments--in real time.

28 February Standing on Giants If I have been able to see further, it was only because I stood on the shoulders of giants. Wikis can provide a space for our Intelligence giants to walk... and for them to stand on each others shoulders in near real time.

28 February The Technology Stack

28 February Social Value of Technology

28 February Metcalfe and Disruption Robert Metcalfe, inventor of the Ethernet protocol and founder of 3Com, asserted that the value of a communication system grows as approximately the square of the number of nodes of the system. –Andruss corollary is that the value of a web space (wikis and blogs) grows as the square of the number of links created in the web space. Once a critical mass is reached, new social, political, and economic systems start to emerge. This is what authors Downes and Mui call the Law of Disruption. Larry Downes and Chunka Mui (1998) Unleashing the Killer App: Digital Strategies for Market Dominance. Cambridge, MA. Harvard Business School Press.

28 February Page Rank

28 February Critical Mass (as of 2/11/07)

28 February New IC Emerges Through Links

28 February Intellipedia

28 February A Space to Grow By deploying wikis on classified networks, and granting access to all comers, we put the Foreign Policy, Defense, National Security, and Intelligence Communities together. Knowledge and feedback is shared by all. »Thus, changes in the National Security environment can be learned by the Intel Community, which in turn, can adapt »From simple local interactions, a global community emerges

28 February Intellipedia

28 February Behavior Changes

28 February In Conclusion Technology is the enabler, not the solution The solution is changing the culture to allow intelligence officers to share and act -- with simple rules of engagement The IC/CMS must build an incentive and reward structure for those components that adopt this new model of doing business

28 February The End

28 February Backup Slides Follow

28 February Feedback Examples

28 February Two examples of self-organizing websites that allow expertise to play a deciding role are –Slashdot –Experts Exchange

For X = min to max, step For Y = min to max, step For counter = min to limit, step 1 C = X + Y Z(counter+1) = Z(counter) * Z(counter) + C If Z(counter+1) > threshold then next counter else plot X,Y with color (counter) and go to next Y If counter=limit then plot X,Y with color (black) Next Y Next X Mandelbrot Fractal Algorithm Z (n+1) = Z (n) ^2 + C, where C = X+Y