Commercial Forecast Adjustment Draft June 19, 2002

Recent Growth

Morelan’s Draft Forecast

Historic Metric

Planned Modifications Washington code upgrade Seattle code upgrade Idaho code upgrade Federal ballast standard Federal updates if adopted New Federal, if adopted

ItemDescriptionImpact Washington Code Two upgrades have occurred one effective July 2001 and an out-of- sequence change effective July of Changes in place as of July of 2001 include some commissioning requirements, equipment efficiencies, lighting controls for smaller buildings and exhaust hood efficiencies. Effective July 2002 Washington adopted ASHRAE 90.1, 1999 that includes upgraded equipment efficiencies, economizers on data centers and adiabatic humidification. Largest changes are likely from equipment efficiencies, commissioning and economizers. On the order of 3% reduction overall in new buildings.

ItemDescriptionImpact City of SeattleSeattle code to go beyond statewide code beginning July Changes include LPD to 1.0 wsf for offices, daylight controls, electronically commutated motors, and better windows. About 20 percent better than ASHRAE About 10 percent beyond current practice.

ItemDescriptionImpact State of Idaho Jurisdictions that have and enforce a building code. (All but two small counties.) New code effective January Adopted IECC but has not adopted the 2001 ASHRAE supplement for chapter 7. So Idaho is using the ASHREA for chapter 7. Prototype analysis from Ken Baker and Mike Kennedy. LPDs in retail drop lighting EUI. Equipment efficiencies improve, glazing and insulation improve UA. Significant EUI electric & base EUI changes in kWh/sf-yr LR lighting (-0.4), 5.8 SR lighting (-.32), 5.0 LO heating (-.47), 4.9 All types auxiliary (-.17), LO,SR cooling (-.16), 0.8

ItemDescriptionImpact State of Oregon Last code change in 1998 including update to ASHRAE standards for equipment plus tweeks to the major 1995 changes. Pending proposals are being reviewed for effect October There are 47 commercial code change proposals including building commissioning, demand control ventilation and others. Too early to estimate likelihood of change. Negligible.

ItemDescriptionImpact Federal Ballast Standard Tier 1 applies to ballasts in new fixtures. Effective in ballasts sold after June 1, 2005 or incorporated into fixtures after January 1, Eliminates magnetic ballasts. Impacts natural replacement cycle in retrofit by about 10%. Does not impact new and remodel and renovation. Tier 2 requires electronic ballasts in ballast replacement markets. Effective for ballasts manufactured after June 30, USDOE estimates average 36 kWh/year per ballast adjusted for current market share already occupied by electronic ballasts. 30 million ballasts annually in new fixtures in US. About 6 million ballasts in the ballast- only replacement market.

Potential Federal Updates Packaged AC & HP R/BR Reflector lamps

ACEEE Proposed New Transformers Vending machines Refrigerators, Freezers, Ice makers Traffic Signals Exit signs Washers Large packaged AC equipment