DISAT-Contribution R. Ferrise, M. Moriondo and M. Bindi 1. What are the main objectives of our study? –Select/Test impact models to simulate different Mediterranean ecosystem tasks: Forestry - damage due to forest fireForestry - damage due to forest fire Agriculture - losses due to water and heat stressesAgriculture - losses due to water and heat stresses –Apply the selected models to estimate a range of impacts using the probabilistic scenarios developed in WP1.2, WP2A.3 and WP2B3-5

–DISAT research activity matches all the three main objectives of WP6.2 for months 25-42: selecting, calibrating and testing impact modelsselecting, calibrating and testing impact models constructing impact response surfaces to evaluate the impacts of climate changeconstructing impact response surfaces to evaluate the impacts of climate change defining critical thresholds for preliminary probabilistic estimates of future climate impactsdefining critical thresholds for preliminary probabilistic estimates of future climate impacts 2. How do our objectives relate to the Work Package objectives ?

–Last 12 months 3.1Complete the testing and calibration of impact models for use in estimating future risks of climate change 3.2Develop a simple statistical model that emulates process-based crop yield models (e.g. Sirius) 3.3Create preliminary yield response surfaces altering the baseline climate 3. What have we achieved so far?

Durum Wheat model Calibration (i.e. SIRIUS-Quality):Durum Wheat model Calibration (i.e. SIRIUS-Quality): –Sites: 3 –Experimental data: 4 years ( ) from Experimental Institute for Cereals –Cultivar: Creso –Model parameters: anthesis and yields 3. What have we achieved so far? (3.1 Complete the testing and calibration of impact models) Milano Roma Foggia

1.Model Validation for the application domain: –SIRIUS was tested on 6 grid points (50 Km X 50 Km) over the Mediterranean Basin using: Daily climatic data : from MARS Project databaseDaily climatic data : from MARS Project database Soil properties: from the Eusoils databaseSoil properties: from the Eusoils database Yield Data: from EUROSTAT database.Yield Data: from EUROSTAT database. 3. What have we achieved so far? (3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates process- based crop yield SIRIUS-Quality model) Andalucia Provence Veneto Lazio Sicilia Peloponnisos Yield (t ha -1 ) ObservedSimulated Average SD CV Pearson 0.66

2.Develop simple statistical models that emulates process-based crop yield SIRIUS model (following the approach proposed by Olesen et al., 2006) a)For each of the six grid points SIRIUS was run for the combinations of 8 climate scenarios with 4 different soil types and 5 N-rates (160 runs per grid) b)A neural network back-propagation model was trained and tested for emulating the SIRIUS outputs: Network layers: 3Network layers: 3 Input nodes: 7 (variables: SWC, N level, Ta, Pa, T(JFM), T(AMJ))Input nodes: 7 (variables: SWC, N level, Ta, Pa, T(JFM), T(AMJ)) Hidden layer nodes: 20Hidden layer nodes: 20 Output: 1Output: 1 Testing data: 30%Testing data: 30% 3. What have we achieved so far? (3.2 Develop simple statistical models that emulates process- based crop yield SIRIUS model) NN model structure Testing results

Yield response surfaces were estimated by altering baseline climate in a grid box of Southern France:Yield response surfaces were estimated by altering baseline climate in a grid box of Southern France: –Grid box: France 43.6 N, 5.0 E –Climatic data changes: Precipitation: -20% to +20%, Temperature: -2°C to +6°C –CO 2 concentration scenarios: (353, 450, 550 and 750 ppm) –Soil Water Capacity: 115 mm –Fertilization: 100 Kg N ha What have we achieved so far? (3.3 Create preliminary yield response surfaces altering the baseline climate for both models)

Tasks Tasks –Task 6.2.8: Construction of impact response surfaces for selected impact models of crops –Task 6.2.9: Preliminary scenario impacts and risk assessment from available climate projections for selected models of crops –Task : Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact models for crops and forest fire from available climate projections –Task : Application of preliminary results from the Ensembles Prediction System to impact models for estimating risks of extremes and risks of impacts Deliverables Deliverables –Deliverable 6.7: Preliminary report on a comparative study of response surface and multiple scenario approaches to assessing risks of impacts using selected impact models. Due Feb 2007 (Month 30) –Deliverable 6.8: Preliminary report on changes in climate extremes and their relation to agriculture and forest. Due Feb 2007 (Month 30) –Deliverable 6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Due Feb 2008 (Month 42) Milestones Milestones –Milestone 6.12: Work Package 6.2 meeting to report progress in applying probabilistic information to impact models and to agree on common approaches and reporting of results. Due April 2007 (Month 32) –Milestone 6.13: Preparation of protocol for determining probabilistic information from the Ensembles Prediction System (RT 2B) and applying it to calibrated impact models. Due Aug 2007 (Month 36) –Milestone 6.14: Completion of preliminary probabilistic assessments of climate change impacts using calibrated impact models. Due Feb 2008 (Month 42) 4.Which of the WP 6.2 outputs do we plan to contribute?

– Next 18 months (months 25-42) Complete the development simple statistical models that emulates process-based crop yield models for all the three selected crops (i.e. olive, grapevine and durum wheat)Complete the development simple statistical models that emulates process-based crop yield models for all the three selected crops (i.e. olive, grapevine and durum wheat) Create yield response surfaces for all the three crops for a pilot study areaCreate yield response surfaces for all the three crops for a pilot study area Define critical thresholds of impacts and obtain preliminary estimates of the likelihood of exceeding these thresholds using probabilistic information about future climateDefine critical thresholds of impacts and obtain preliminary estimates of the likelihood of exceeding these thresholds using probabilistic information about future climate 5. What are we planning to do in the next 18 months ?

6. What are our main questions requiring discussion in this meeting? Define and collect the climate data that will be used: –to create crop yield response surfaces –to obtain preliminary estimates of the probabilistic impact of future climate change on crop yields