Progress since Helsinki Tom Holt Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK ENSEMBLES WP6.2, Prague, November, 2007

Summary Not much time spent on WP6.2 –Work on DeSurvey –Work on other ENSEMBLES WPs RT8 –Public participation in science Web site –Stakeholders RT4 –Ambient climatology behind Mediterranean extremes WP6.2 –D6.8 report submitted

DeSurvey Data may be of use in WP6.2 –ERA-40 on 1 degree grid over Mediterranean Standard variables 6-hourly –Downscaling to 1 km resolution Weighted by topography Spain/Portugal, Italy, Greece, Tunisia Based on above ERA-40 data –HadRM3 control and A2a to follow

D6.8 Report Summary of contents 1) Effects of climate change on Health, Heat Stress, Wind Storm, Flood, and Return Levels (UEA) NB This part was presented in the report on D6.2 (page 3) 2) Effects of climate change on Mediterranean Agriculture (UEA) (pages 4-15) 3) A Heat Index for Heat Stress studies (NOA) (pages 16-21) 4) A Storm Damage Regression Model (FUB) (pages 22-30) 5) Forest damage in a changing climate (LU) (pages 31-36) 6) Some remarks on Uncertainty (UEA) (page 37) Plus late contribution from Ari Venäläinen: based on his extremes work in Finland – my fault I should have asked his group to become involved – welcome aboard Ari et al.! Marco – anything on forest fires for the next phase? nothing on flood yet (PAS), Ill do something on this years UK flood

New Extremes Deliverable Essentially –Running the impacts models using ENSEMBLES RCM extremes –Assessing uncertainty –Reporting results –By month 48 Paper –An amalgam of the reports –Volunteers for sub-editors (2 or 3)? Ill do the first draft and well take it from there – bloody but effective! –Should be a hard-hitting quantitative summary of effects on peoples lives.