Evaluating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources Phil Graham Fredrik Wetterhall Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute.

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Presentation transcript:

Evaluating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources Phil Graham Fredrik Wetterhall Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping

What are our main objectives? investigate impacts of climate change on stream discharge by transferring the climate change signal from RCMs to hydrological rainfall-runoff models identify areas at risk to both changes in flooding and drought conditions conducted in the Nordic Region at varying scale – continental scale: entire Baltic Sea Basin – regional scale: entire national territory of Sweden – basin scale: individual drainage basins in Sweden

Studies at Varying Scales

Link to work package objectives? Response surfaces for selected applications Direct use of multiple regional model projections Comparison of outcomes from the two methods

What have we achieved?

Response Surfaces - Runoff Lake Mälaren Lule River

RS - Flood Frequency Lake Mälaren Lake Vänern

RS - Lake Levels Lake Mälaren Low levels

RS - Extended Period with Maximum Discharge Lake Vänern Current regulation rulesProposed regulation rules (earlier releases)

WP 6.2 Tasks construction of response surfaces scenario impacts and risk assessment application of Ensembles Prediction System D6.7 & D6.13

Questions for Discussion How should we deal with seasonality using the response surface approach? What is the proper level of detail for critical thresholds? What will we actually get from the climate models (i.e. probabilistic info.) ? How to choose which transient simulations to use with direct impacts simulations?

Questions for Discussion Creating seasonally dependent sensitivity surfaces? PrecipitationTemperature

Questions for Discussion Creating seasonally dependent sensitivity surfaces? PrecipitationTemperature

Continuous Simulations (transient) Change in river flow (10-yr running mean) compared to RCA3 sres-A2

Continuous Simulations (transient) Change in river flow (10-yr running mean) compared to RCA3 sres-A2

Continuous Simulations (transient) Work in Progress! Change in river flow (10-yr running mean) compared to RCA3 sres-A2 sres-B2

Modelled Change in Hydropower Potential for the Lule River compared to

Modelled Change in Hydropower Potential in Sweden compared to

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