Investing in Airports in Tough Economic Times Mark Heusinkveld 28 May 2009 Lodz, Republic of Poland European Sky over Poland Ministry of Infrastructure Association of Engineers and Technicians of Transport

Strategic Feasibility Studies Master Plans Airspace & Airfield Modeling Forecasting and Facility Requirements Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility Noise & Environmental Analysis AirsidePlanning Landrum & Brown Services

AirsidePlanning Cargo & Logistics Planning Forecasting Facility Layout Operations/Financing Plans Marketing and Development Strategic Feasibility Studies Master Plans Airspace & Airfield Modeling Forecasting and Facility Requirements Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility Noise & Environmental Analysis Landrum & Brown Services

Cargo & Logistics Planning Forecasting Facility Layout Operations Plans Marketing and Development Terminal/LandsidePlanningTerminal/LandsidePlanning Programming, Schematic Design, Modeling, 3D, Gate Management AirsidePlanning Strategic Feasibility Studies Master Plans Airspace & Airfield Modeling Forecasting and Facility Requirements Operations Plans & Financial Feasibility Noise & Environmental Analysis Landrum & Brown Services

Global Aviation Experience

North American ACI Air Traffic Statistics by Regions Latin America Caribbean Europe Africa Middle East Asia/Pacific PsgCgoMov PsgCgoMov PsgCgoMov PsgCgoMov PsgCgoMov Psg Cgo Mov Psg: total passengers (millions) Cgo: total cargo (metric tonnes 000s) Mov: total movements (000s) World Map of Air Traffic Change 2007 ~ 2008 Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Cuban Missile Crisis Hijackings R Fuel Shock R PATCO Strike RR Pan Am 103 Persian Gulf War R WTC R Iraq War Fuel Shock R Credit Crisis Aviation System Shocks and Recoveries – U.S. Market Source: Jan 2009 update Tragedy Analysis (Landrum & Brown Analysis)

Worldwide Passenger Traffic History

World Airline Traffic Forecasting: Number of Passengers 1945 ~ ’~54’ 23.2% Growth Rates 55’~64’ 9.6% 65’~74’ 12.6% 75’~84’ 5.3% 85’~94’ 3.6% 95’~04’ 4.2% Forecasted Growth Rate: Boeing = 4.26% Airbus= 4.30% Source: Airport Transport Association ( Boeing transformation of air transport summary outlook 2008; Airbus Global Market Forecasting 2007http://

: 12 New Airports at U.S.$15.2 Billion New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright‎ )

New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn New Terminal 22 $ 18,814 Mn Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright‎ ) : 22 New Terminals at U.S.$18.8 Billion

New Airports 12 $ 15,282 Mn New Terminal 22 $ 18,814 Mn Other Exps. 31 $ 36,048 Mn Source:090429mpk_ProjectPotentials.xls (L&B copyright‎ ) : 31 Expansion Projects at U.S.$36.0 Billion

Planning Strategies  Understand the Market  Focus on the Forecast  Plan for Flexibility  Anticipate Change  Ensure Balanced Facilities  Explore all Revenue Opportunities  Build for What is Foreseen  Continually Improve Performance

70 MAP 100 MAP130 MAP 160 MAP Use of Planning Demand Levels Passengers (millions) HistoryLow CaseBase CaseHigh CaseEK Forecast 70 MAP100 MAP130 MAP160 MAP

The Effect of a Changing Fleet…

Aircraft by ICAO Design Code 70 MAP 160 MAP ICAO Design Code B: ERJ170, E145 … ICAO Design Code C: B737, A320 … ICAO Design Code D: A300, B757, B767 … ICAO Design Code F: A380, An225 … ICAO Design Code E: A340, A330, B747, B777 …

Understand the demand profile… Transfer Passengers Transfer Passengers O&D Passengers O&D Passenger s

Ensure Balance of Airspace with Airside, Terminal and Landside Guangzhou Shenzhen Hong Kong Macau Zhuhai  5 Airports  3 Jurisdictions  Restricted Airspace

Anticipating Change Since Future 1946

Explore Future Development Options

Hong Kong – Airport City Concept New T2 Terminal New Bus Depot Convention Center Potential Office Development Future Development Ferry Terminal Hotel

Mumbai – Redevelopment on Site

Explore the Potential…

Develop a Vision… And build what can be justified Maglev - Metro Subway - High Speed Rail - City Buses – Commercial Development – Retail – Residential - Logistics

شـــكراً ! Thank You! Dziękuję! Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Total Passengers by Region 2007~2008 Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Total Cargo by Region 2007~2008 Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008

Total Movements by Region 2007~2008 Source: Airport Council International Worldwide Airports Traffic Statistics Report -Dec. 2008