California Energy Commission Personal and Commercial Vehicle Choice High-Speed Rail Inputs and Assumptions for Transportation Energy Demand Forecasts Rosenfeld Hearing Room March 19, 2015 Jesse Gage Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /

California Energy Commission Inputs to Vehicle Choice Models American Community Survey Smog Check Data High-Speed Rail Background Impact on statewide Fuel Demand 2 Topics

California Energy Commission Vehicle Choice Input Sources Economic and Demographic Data Department of Motor Vehicles Fuel and Electricity Prices Vehicle Attributes U.S. Census Bureau: American Community Survey (Personal only) Bureau of Automotive Repair: Smog Check Program (Commercial only) 3

California Energy Commission American Community Survey Annual survey of approximately 1 million United States residents Includes income, number of workers in household, number of vehicles Base year California population partitioned according to most recent American Community Survey 4

California Energy Commission Smog Check Program Data Shared with Energy Commission via Interagency Agreement 10 million gasoline and diesel vehicles per year Cross-referenced with Department of Motor Vehicles data: Vintage Vehicle Class Ownership 5

California Energy Commission California High-Speed Rail (CalHSR) History 1994: High-Speed Rail Development Act 1996: Intercity High Speed Rail Commission Feasibility Report 2002: SB 1856 (Costa) – Sends rail bond proposition to voters 2008: Proposition 1A passed by voters 2012: SB 1029 (Budget Act of 2012) approves funds for Initial Operating Segment 2014: CalHSR releases most recent Business Plan; construction begins 6

California Energy Commission 7 Source: California High-Speed Rail Authority Business Plan, 2014 Merced to San Fernando Valley 300 miles Estimated completion: 2022 Initial Operating Section (IOS): San Jose/Merced to San Fernando Valley 410 miles Estimated completion: 2026 Bay to Basin San Francisco to Los Angeles/Anaheim 520 miles Estimated completion: 2028 Phase 1

California Energy Commission Inputs from High-Speed Rail Business Plan Ridership Displacement Segment Length o Diverted o Undiverted Train Properties o Capacity o Electricity Usage 8

California Energy Commission Integration with Transportation Forecast Reference scenario only for preliminary forecast Add-on to reference scenario Integration with other scenarios may be plausible for final forecast High-Speed Rail’s impact on 2015 IEPR forecast likely to be minimal, with larger impacts on future IEPR forecasts 9

California Energy Commission High-Speed Rail Allocation Algorithm 10

California Energy Commission Questions? Comments? Jesse Gage Demand Analysis Office Energy Assessments Division /