Mobility Management: Value for money Contributions by Walter Bien, Jan Christiaens Moderated by Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2009 May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián

Introduction Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2009 May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián

3 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Todays interactive session welcome to ELTIS Café and introduction to ELTIS (5) value for money: cost benefits (30) discussion round 1 (20) changeover (5) discussion round 2 (20) wrap up and general conclusions (10) Eltis ECOMM

4 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London -The ELTIS Café wants to boost dialogue and exchange experience and ideas in small but inspiring groups. -The ELTIS Café aims to further encourage the exchange of ideas and experiences in a less formal but still unconventional way. -To do this, ELTIS organises several sessions at various events where participants sit together at small tables as in a café. -Brief presentations by proponents of different viewpoints on the same topic are made and then two rounds of discussion are held. Introduction and goal Eltis ECOMM

5 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London What is ELTIS? The European Local Transport Information Service (ELTIS) is Europes number one web portal on urban transport and mobility It is an initiative of the European Commission's Directorate General for Energy and Transport Eltis ECOMM

6 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Eltis ECOMM ELTIS aims to: Provide information and support the exchange of experience in the field of urban and regional transport in Europe.

7 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London On-line contents News Events Calls and tenders Tools for practitioners EU initiatives and policies Case studies Links User association Vote & win Eltis ECOMM

Mobility Management: Value for money? Jan Christiaens/ Lies Lambert (Mobiel 21) ECOMM 2009 May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián

9 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London a concept to promote sustainable transport and manage the demand for car use by changing travellers attitudes and behaviour at the core of Mobility Management are "soft" measures does it work? at all? effective? efficient? cost-benefit? Mobility Management… …is it any good? Eltis ECOMM

10 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London The ECOMM and EPOMM community is a clear believer. Obviously, because Mobility Management pays your bills. Like the baker stating that fresh bread from the bakery is a healthy and delicious way to start the day… Where is the real proof? Does it work? At all? Eltis ECOMM

11 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Proof is in eating the pudding: hundreds of cases Does it work? At all? (2) Eltis ECOMM

12 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Tons of cases Years of good and best practice Us knows us But what does average Joe know about Mobility Management and does he notices anything whilst travelling? Does it work? Efficient/effective? Eltis ECOMM

13 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Key note opened stating (once more) that Mobility Management is part of an integrated approach : only a combination of elements works (in that case it was in dealing with climate change). Like we all know but sometimes seem to forget. Problem: the other parts are often easy to measure. ECOMM 2008 London Eltis ECOMM

14 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Published February 2009 A case/role for Mobility Management? Rather a clear lack of it: Mobility Management is not a theme nor subtheme - Transport Demand Management is a subtheme, mainly looking at pricing issues Referral to MAX (Successful Travel Awareness Campaigns and Mobility Management Strategies) and MOVE (International cluster for mobility management development and research dissemination) as projects with results not yet available. Efficiency in Sustainable Mobility Eltis ECOMM

15 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Enormous Mobility Management efforts A huge majority wanted the Olympic games to be a success story at all levels. Governmental appeal/pressure with the result that all shared a common goal. That included taking unpopular MM measures (mainly aimed at air quality). Social ! Psychology ! Alas, we are mostly not working on such big projects Efficiency? Olympics Bejing Eltis ECOMM

16 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Selling MM = project appraisal Eltis ECOMM

17 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Selling MM = showing cost-benefits Eltis ECOMM

A new approach for MM benefit-estimation Walter Bien ECOMM 2009 May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián

19 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Effect Estimation within changing framework/conditions The classical (best) approach: Evaluation of treatment groups and placebo-groups Estimation of change in the mobility/traffic area (modal split, PT passenger numbers, …) using statistical data (inhabitants, number of cars, commuters, PT offer, …) Comparison of estimated and measured values Example: Development of the number of PT passengers in Frankfurt from 1995 to 2010 Overview Eltis ECOMM

20 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London 1.Effect Estimation within changing framework/conditions Eltis ECOMM Compare: The fat car driver vs. the slim biker

21 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London year Public Transport passengers change- rate (values in millions) , ,47,9% 2007* 183,80,2% success of mobility management ??? * means: preliminary … starting with mobility management measures in the year 2000 … establish mobility management in the following years

22 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London success of mobility management … could be ? year PT- passengers income by ticket- sales change -rate (values in millions) ,0 117, ,4 137,317,3% 2007*183,8 167,021,6% … but in the same two periods we have a strong increase of income by ticket sales (based on a higher price level)

23 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London success of mobility management … yes ! year inhabi- tants emplo- yees inhab.+ employ. change -rate (all values in thousands) ,0% 2007* ,3% … the increase of customer potential (inhabitants and employees) is less in the second period

24 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London success of mobility management: … Yes (in a special manner) if we assume that there would be a decrease of the number of PT passengers and a less increase of income without mobility management … period Public Transport passen- gers Income by ticket sales Inhabitants & employees Compare of the change rates ,9%17,3%4,0% ,2%21,6%2,3%

25 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London The problem: effect estimation of measures … we can see non effect of fuel prices on the developement of PT passengers

26 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London The PT offer is stable in the first period while the usage icreases for 15%. In the second period PT offer and also the usage is grown up for 6-7%- points.

27 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London 2.The classical (best) approach: Evaluation of treatment groups and placebo-groups Remember – (Eric Schreffler; S. Diego): The data never lie – but do we so ?

28 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London 2.The classical (best) approach: Evaluation of treatment groups and placebo-groups But also (Herbert Kemming, germany): … The control group method … and its problems

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30 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London 3.Estimation of change in the mobility/traffic area (modal split, PT passenger numbers, …) using statistical data (inhabitants, number of cars, commuters, PT offer, …)

31 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London In the slides before we have to deal with this kind of data: Number of Public Transport Passengers PT income by ticket sales Inhabitants (in city/region) Employees (in city/region) Fuel price PT offer (in km*places - offered) PT usage (in km*places - used) … and all this data are almost available – and can be used (in combination with some others) to estimate effects of measures. Structural data: important for modal-choice / available

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34 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London … on the next slide – see the combination

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36 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London The weighted combination of 4 single-indicator values is a good fitting indicator for the developement of PT-passenger- numbers: Inhabitants of frankfurt (weight: 1) + (reciprocal) number of cars (weight: 2) + employees (working) in frankfurt (weight: 3) + number of commuters to frankfurt(weight: 4) average of the indicators above = indicator for pt-passengers Combining structural data with passenger-numbers in public-transport

37 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public- transport

38 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public- transport

39 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Now we can construct a so called Target Value for the number of PT passengers. This is a weighted combination of the indicator-value before (combined by the 4 structural data) and the PT- offer (see slide no.8): Indicator Value (weight: 2) + PT offer (weight: 1) average of the indicators above = Target Value for PT-passengers Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public- transport

40 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London 4.Comparison of estimated and measured values The convincing argument: Decisive – is the final result ! In german: … was hinten rauskommt.

41 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Combining structural data with passenger- numbers in public- transport … now we can see the difference between the (realized) number of PT passengers and the expected number (target value) of PT passengers …

42 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London 1.It becomes possible to determine the effects of other measures - such as mobility management or further soft-policies in PT (advertisement, special efforts of information...) - separately and also prove their economic efficiency. 2.Regarding the Frankfurt-area this approach shows that since the year 2000 with rising tendency, the applied measures have generated additional fare income within a two-digit million range (of EUROs). 3.The lower costs (for mobility management) must lead to a continuation and legitimate the spending of money not only from an organisational/company-internal but also from a political and public point of view. Conclusion

43 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London 5.Example: Development of the number of PT passengers in Frankfurt from 1995 to 2010

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45 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London ~ 20 Mio. EURO

46 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Next steps and chances If the economic effects of mobility management and other soft traffic policies can be estimated quantitatively in an easy way with only few available indicators, low priced basic conditions for these measures can be achieved. The broad application and testing of this methodology would induce an equal treatment of soft policies and mobility management with rather "hardware-oriented" measures as for example new travel offers (temporal/spatial), new vehicles or price-arrangements in the PT-sector.

47 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London In a further step a methodology can be developed, which permits effect estimations for mobility management in advance, like it has already been implemented in the German-speaking-area by the so-called "standardized evaluation" for all kind of infrastructure measures. And that means: New and equal opportunities for mobility management! Next steps and chances

48 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London … and so – we reach her/him: the multi-modal mobility-user

49 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London car (at all) 82% bike (at all) 40% Modal-choice of the inhabitants of Frankfurt (~ p.) PT (at all) 43% car (only) 37% bike (only) 6% PT (only) 7% car & PT 16% car & bike 14% PT & bike 5% PT & car & bike 15%

50 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London car (at all) 58% bike (at all) 57% Sustainable developement in modal-choice PT (at all) 59% car (only) 24% bike (only) 13% PT (only) 14% car & PT 5% car & bike 4% PT & bike 15% PT & car & bike 25%

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Questions - Discussion Graham Lightfoot (Mendes GoCar Limited) ECOMM 2009 May 15 – Donostia/San Sebastián

53 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Question round 1 (+/-20 minutes) 1.Can we prove the value for money of MM measures? Eltis ECOMM

54 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Question round 2 (+/-20 minutes) 1.Will approaches such as cost/benefit analysis help us to prove value for money of MM measures? Eltis ECOMM

55 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Conclusions and wrap up (+/-10 minutes) - collection of notes from the different hosts - the different ideas and solutions are compiled Eltis ECOMM

56 Eltis ECOMM 2008 June 5th - London Thank you for your contribution! Well meet Eltis ECOMM