California Association of Realtors GAD Institute Chris Gosselin Senior Political Representative National Association of Realtors August 19, 2015

31% 61% Public Still Skeptical On National Outlook Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, Percentage Responding to Question: “All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel things are off on the wrong track?”

Public Outlook for Economy Gradually Improving *N.B.: Prior to April 2001, the question was phrased, “Over the past year…” Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, March 1-5, Percentage Responding to Question: “During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better or worse?”* 21% 29% % Better/Worse Better Worse

past 5 years Source: Conference Board, June 2015; Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, June Consumers Optimism Improving But Still Low by Historical Measure Consumer Confidence = Index Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index ® Michigan/Reuters Consumer Sentiment Consumer Confidence Index ® and Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment = 96.1

48% Public Nearly Split on Obama’s Job Approval Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, June 14-18, 2015; Gallup.com, June 22-28, NBC/WSJ’s Presidential Job ApprovalGallup’s Presidential Job Approval 49% 47%

Public Opinion Split on Democratic Party Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Democratic Party 36% 38%

Public Holds Negative Opinion of GOP Source: NBC/WSJ Poll, April 26-30, NBC/WSJ Thermometer: Republican Party 30% 43%

Share of Self-Described Independents Grows at Expense of Both Parties Source: Gallup.com, Gallup’s Party Affiliation Survey Responding to question: “In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an independent?” 44% Independents 28% Democrats 27% Republicans

Congressional Partisanship Over Time Source: Senate.gov, 2014; Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives, 2014; CNN,

GOP Sweeps Competitive Races Recommendations and detected threats OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI NC: Thom Tillis (R) won a slim upset victory over Kay Hagan (D) AR: Tom Cotton (R) easily defeated Sen. Mark Pryor, helping to complete Arkansas’ transformation into a Republican stronghold AK: Dan Sullivan (R) beat Sen. Mark Begich (D) in a close race that took an addition week to count the votes LA: Bill Cassidy (R) beat Sen. Landrieu (D) in a runoff election announced on December 6, 2014 KY: Sen. McConnell (R) handily defeated Alison Grimes (D) on his way to becoming majority leader GA: David Perdue (R) avoided a runoff, blowing out former non- profit CEO Michelle Nunn Source: National Journal Research 2014; Associated Press Election Results, 2014; Scott Bland, Andrea Drusch, and Alex Roarty, “Hotline’s Senate Race Rankings: Republicans On The Brink,” National Journal’s Hotline, October 13, MI: Gary Peters (D) maintained Democratic control of retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat against Michigan Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land (R) Republican Victories Democratic Victories SD: Mike Rounds (R), despite seeing outside money pour in against him at the last minute after reports of a scandal during his time as governor, won an easy victory over Rick Weiland (D) and former Sen. Larry Pressler (I) CO: Cory Gardner (R) defeated Sen. Mark Udall easily after Udall ran a poor one- note campaign on reproductive health that voters didn’t engage with NH: Sen. Shaheen (D) held off a national tide against Democrats, holding on to defeat former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown (R) KS: Sen. Roberts (R), after facing bad polling numbers earlier this summer, brought in a team of top-tier Republican strategists and won re-election by a wide margin over Greg Orman (I) IA: Joni Ernst (R) handily won election over gaffe-prone Rep. Bruce Braley (D) in the race for Sen. Tom Harkin (D)’s seat VA: Mark Warner (D) defeated Ed Gillespie (R) in an unexpectedly close race that almost went to a recount

Source: National Journal Research, Republicans Hold Majority of Senate Seats Up For Election in 2016 Analysis The U.S. Senate elections in 2016 feature 22 seats with Republican incumbents, 7 seats with Democratic incumbents, and 5 open seats The five open seats are in the Democratic strongholds of California and Maryland, Republican-leaning Indiana, and the swing states of Nevada and Florida 2016 U.S. Senate Elections by Incumbent Party Recommendations and detected threats OH WV VA PA NY ME NC SC GA TN KY IN MI WI MN IL LA TX OK ID NV OR WA CA AZ NM CO WY MT ND SD IA UT FL AR MO MS AL NE KS VT NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD AK HI Republican-Held SeatsDemocratic-Held SeatsOpen SeatsNo Election in 2016

Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times. Republicans Make Significant Gains in House Analysis Republicans were expected to keep control of the House, but strong performances in tossup districts and a handful of wins in states that were expected to lean Democratic mean that the new GOP majority is even larger than expected House Seats Gained/Held in the 2014 Midterm Elections AK Democratic Hold Democratic Gain Republican Gain Republican Hold Democrats: 188 Republicans: 247 Independents: 0 Undecided: 0

Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times. Republicans Win Record Majority in House Analysis Republicans won a total of 247 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928 An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections Control of the 114 th House ( ) AK Democratic Republican Democrats: 188 Republicans: 247 Independents: 0 Undecided: 0

Cook Political Report Rates the Districts Source: Cook Political Report, Analysis According to the Cook Partisan Vote Index, the number of swing seats in the House has dropped 45%, from 164 in 1998 to 90 in 2014 Fewer swing seats means more polarization in Congress As district populations grow increasingly liberal or conservative, incumbents fear radical primary challengers House Makeup by Cook Partisan Vote Index In House, Fewer “Swing” Seats, More Polarization Number of Seats

1 incumbent party loss 7 races won by <5% 3 races won by 5% -10% 32 races won by more than 20% California Incumbent Party Win Margin

California Congressional Same-Party Presidential Outperformance

Total amount spent by candidates in CA races won by <5%

Win Margin in Competitive CA Districts,

Dissecting the Gridlock

Categorizing the Congress Democrats divide along a left/right spectrum Republicans divide along an establishment/anti-establishment spectrum Keystone Pipeline Progressive Caucus Budget Mortgage Choice Act Trade Promotion Authority Removal of U.S. Forces from Syria & Iraq Election of the Speaker Homeland Security Appropriations Federal Support for Amtrak Medicare Access & CHIP Reauthorization Trade Promotion Authority

House Democratic Factions Becerra Chu Cardenas Hahn Honda Huffman Lee Lofgren Lowenthal Matsui Napolitano Roybal-Allard Linda Sanchez Takano Bass Capps Farr Lieu McNerney Pelosi Schiff Swalwell Torres Waters Brownley Garamendi Speier Thompon Vargas Aguilar Bera Davis Sherman PetersCosta

House Republican Factions Calvert McCarthy Nunes Valadao Denham Royce Cook Issa Knight LaMalfa Hunter McClintock Rohrabacher

RPAC Funding Process Funds available without CREPAC / RPAC trustee approval: In-State Funds - $1,000 for use in home district by FPC –Contact Lisa Edwards at CAR to request in-state funds –2 week request deadline –$500 minimum –Check is sent to CAR, then to FPC for delivery DC Funds – $2,000 for Jerry Giovaniello to use to attend events in DC

RPAC Funding Process Remaining funds subject to trustee approval (incumbents): RPAC FedEx’s Check to CAR for delivery to FPC RPAC Approves CREPAC Requests CREPAC Requests Funds from RPAC (Up to $5,000 total per election primary/general) CREPAC Trustees Evaluate Incumbent’s Record

RPAC Funding Process – Open Seats RPAC FedEx’s Check to CAR for delivery to FPC RPAC Approves CREPAC Request CREPAC Requests Funds from RPAC Typically $5,000 per election for open seat candidates Candidate Interviews Candidate DC Meetings LCRC Meetings Candidate Questionnaire Evaluation of state/local record

Additional Support for Federal Candidates Opportunity Races –Levels 1-3 Independent Expenditures President’s Circle

Opportunity Races 2014

California Members with outstanding FPC Funds Doug LaMalfa John Garamendi Mike Thompson Jerry McNerney Jackie Speier Eric Swalwell Jim Costa Mike Honda Anna Eshoo Sam Farr Devin Nunes Julia Brownley Tony Cardenas Grace Napolitano Ted Lieu Xavier Becerra Raul Ruiz Ed Royce Maxine Waters Alan Lowenthal Darrell Issa Duncan Hunter Juan Vargas

Cook Political Report Race Ratings

Cash on Hand as of June 30 Filing Period

Contact Information: Chris Gosselin Senior Political Representative National Association of REALTORS ® (202)