Migration Statistics Improvement Programme – Overview of Phase 2 ONS Centre for Demography

Presentation Content Migration Stats Improvement Programme MSIP Phase One achievements MSIP Phase Two objectives Phase 2 work-streams Reconciling administrative data and population estimates Distributing migrants to local authority International migration Other work Dependencies

MSIP Context The 2001 ‘Census gap’ ONS IMPS Programme (2003) –LA Case Studies –The 2007 improvements package Major Reviews ( ) –Inter-departmental Task Force on Migration Statistics –TSC Report on ‘Counting the Population’ Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (2008)

Population Estimates Previous Year Resident Population Add Natural Change Add internal Migration “Age On” Add International Migration +Births -Deaths Patient registers International Passenger Survey, MI

MSIP Vision Migration and Population Statistics meeting user needs: at the right time covering the relevant populations measuring change accurately (national and local) detecting turning points Statistics trusted as authoritative by highly engaged users: based on range of developed best up-to-date sources using enhanced transparent sustainable statistical methods with quality measures (and low gap with 2011 Census)

Summary of Migration Statistics Improvement Programme - Phase1 revised mid-year population estimates model based LA immigration estimates introduction of a student adjustment changes to the IPS sample design improved access to admin data sources cross government migration indicators suite on-going consultation with key stakeholders new outputs: migrant indicators, short term migrants, quarterly migration outputs Phase 2 is funded until March 2012 Phase 1 commenced April 2008 and led to:

Incorporate stakeholder requirements gathered through the engagement process Develop a programme that focuses on delivering practical change to the process of making migration and population estimates within the funded period of the programme (up to March 2012) Ensure that research and deliverables are compatible with ‘Beyond 2011’ and 2011 Census QA MSIP Phase 2: Planning Objectives

Phase 2 Workstreams Reconciling Admin Sources Statistical Benefits of E-borders Migrant Distribution Quality User Engagement

Reconciling Administrative Sources Workstream Key deliverable – plausibility range and contingency adjustment strategy Quality assessment of admin sources Assessment of long/short term migrants Demographic analysis Age Pop Local Authority X Contingency Adjustment

Time Migrant Journey Apply for a visa (non EEA) Leave UK Start work/course Arrive in UK HESA E-borders Patient Register School Census NPS(Migrant Worker Scan) Lifetime Labour Market Database (NPS) Electoral Register Register with GP Dependents start school Election – register to vote?? E-borders Activities Admin Sources Move within UK Change GP The migrant journey and administrative sources

Migrant Distribution Workstream Key deliverable – improved regional/local authority distribution of long and short term migrants Utilising admin sources to distribute migrants estimated by IPS (national/regional level) Solving the ‘intermediate geography’ issue. IPS Estimate Children - School Census Workers - Lifetime Labourmarket DB (L2), Migrant Worker Scan, Students - Higher Ed Stats Auth General - Flag 4 Patient Register

E-Borders Workstream Key deliverable – Improved international migration estimates Short/Medium term – Use of flow data for improved IPS weighting and as a ‘lead indicator’ of change Long term – Use of travel histories to produce direct migration counts

Other Work Quality key deliverable – measurement of uncertainty around population estimates at LA level, building on ‘plausibility ranges’ Ongoing user engagement – Quarterly updates and research reports ‘Roadshows’ Further work on student moves utilising microdata

Dependencies 2011 Census Demographic Quality Assurance Measures of long and short term migrants possible for the first time Local Authority engagement Beyond 2011 Project Looking at what might come after the 2011 Census Assessing the feasibility of a range of options Comprehensive Spending Review