© Crown Copyright 2012. Source: Met Office Dale Barker, Tomas Landelius, Eric Bazile, Christoph Frei, Phil Jones 2 April 2012 EURO4M – WP2: Regional Reanalysis.

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Presentation transcript:

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Dale Barker, Tomas Landelius, Eric Bazile, Christoph Frei, Phil Jones 2 April 2012 EURO4M – WP2: Regional Reanalysis Overview © Crown Copyright 2012 Source: Met Office

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office EURO4M WP2 WP2.1 Building capacity for advanced regional data assimilation (MetO) WP2.2 Dynamical downscaling of ERA (SMHI). WP2.3 2D mesoscale downscaling (Météo France). WP2.4 Evaluation (MeteoSwiss). WP2.5 Improvement of input data for reanalyses (UEA) Now

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office WP2.1 Building capacity for advanced regional data assimilation Current 12km grid 480 x 384 Horizontal domain unchanged from last year. Decision made in FY to align EURO4M vertical levels, physics, etc with global NWP/climate model (previously aligned with regional NWP ensemble).

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office UM Running at ECMWF ECMWF interface Met Office

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Regional NWP – Why Bother? Regional NWP+ Regional DA Upper-Air Temperature Upper-Air Wind Speed PMSL 6hrly Acc. Precipitation Surface Wind-SpeedT+6 – T+48T+0 – T+6 Cloud AmountT+0 – T+48T+0 – T+6 VisibilityT+0 – T+48T+0 – T+12 Surface TemperatureT+0 – T+48 (UK only)T+0 – T+12/24 (NAE/UK) Benefit Of European Regional NWP vs 25km global model (UM): Focus for EURO4M: Regional Reanalysis – Why Bother?

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office ERA-Interim EURO4M 12km, 70 levels 12-36km 4D-Var 6-hour analysis window assimilate: conventional obs incl visibility satellite radiances Ground-based GPS Cloud Precipitation Initial state and boundary conditions from ERA-Interim/ Clim analyses T255* (80km), 60 levels T159 (125km) 4D-Var 12-hour analysis window Assimilate: conventional obs satellite radiances Global/Regional Reanalysis Configurations * Note ERA-Clim up to T511 (~40km)

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office First attempt at reanalysis... May 2010 June 2010 July 2010 Floods in Poland, eastern Europe Severe storms France/Spain Russian heatwave spreading West, forest fires

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Russian heatwave, July 2010 Tmax ERA-Interim 12km EURO4M e-obs

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Verification vs Radiosonde T+0T+6 European Temperature rms error: May-July 2010 ERA-Interim EURO4M 12km GA3: See Renshaw talk

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Developments for 2012/13 Variational bias correction ODB – obs monitoring. ECMWF collaboration. Extend observations dataset Cloud and Precipitation assimilation Validation – extreme statistics Collaborate on cross-validation Pre-Production Reanalysis: 2010 – 2011 period Impact of 4D-Var assimilation resolution (12-36km)

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office 3D-Var Re-analysis at 22 km, 60Levels over Europe (SMHI) 2D analysis at x ~5 km x ~ 5 km over Europe Downscaling Courtesy of T. Landelius (SMHI) More observations Dynamical downscaling and reanalysis over Europe (WP2.2 – 2.3) By adding details with topography and more observations, the quality of the analysis should improve … ~ 4000 obs (1200 over France)

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office WP2.3 2D reanalysis (SMHI) HIRLAM 22 kmDownscaled to 5 kmMESAN t2m analysis (observations as black dots)

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office WP2.3 observations for 2D reanalysis (SMHI) In total some 10,000 unique stations. This is still far from all observations available in the national archives! GA3: See Unden, Landelius talks

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office #Validation of the analyses Against observations (particularly for T2m, Rh2m, 24-h cumulated precipitation) Assessment of the snow depth and the river flow by using a surface scheme and a hydrological module forced with reanalyses surface variables. #Improvement of the downscaling method: Problem of the vertical interpolation over the mountainous areas especially for the temperature ; usage of a lake climatology to improve the lake surface temperature. #Development of precipitation analysis, the usage of Tmin and Tmax for reanalysis #Technical issues: To create a reanalysis domain (~5km scale) over Europe that best fit SMHI domain (at 22 km scale), i.e. changing the geometry from rotated lat-lon to Lambert conformal); Converting GRIB files from SMHI to specific format type Usage of additional observations not available in GTS. #Specific treatment for the wind with a dynamical adaptation or by DFI ? WP2.3 Ongoing work GA3: See Soci talk

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Overall Process WP2.5 Improved Input Data (UEA) GA3: See Jones talk

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office WP2.4 Evaluation (MeteoSwiss) Using existing datasets, reanalyses, and datasets developed in WP1 Formally begins April MeteoSwiss: precipitation variations in Alpine regions. Met Office: Reanalysis sensitivity to resolution, technique. Observation impact. SMHI: compare MetO/HIRLAM reanalyses. MeteoFrance: Evaluate MESAN/SAFRAN. DWD: verify WV, cloud, precip, radiation with CM-SAF Investigate satellite radiance calibration.

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office WP2.4 Evaluation (MeteoSwiss) 20 km grid5 km grid Precipitation at meso-scale in complex topography (Alpine region) Consistency between obs. datasets (spatial pattern, annual cycle) for precip extremes? High-resolution regional reanalyses vs. global reanalysis? Representation of interannual to decadal variations by regional reanalyses? GA3: See Frei discussion

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office EURO4M WP2 Deliverables/Milestones Year 1 Year 2 Year 3Year 4 Now Deliverables on track. Year 1-2, largely preparation (much technical work). Year 3-4 pre-production runs plus evaluation (enhanced collaboration).

© Crown Copyright Source: Met Office Questions/Discussion?