What is Sustainability when on the “Climate Roller Coaster”! Dr John Russell La Trobe University, Bendigo. 22 th February 2007 Talking and ‘Waking’ Sustainability Conference Co author Kevin Long

OUTLINE How Bad is it? The “Climate Roller Coaster”! What the papers say and positive responses

How Bad is it? LocalRegional Australian and New Zealand Global Drivers/Symptoms – El Nino

Typical Dam in Farmland

Research Findings – Lake Eppalock Catchment – Location & Weather Figure 1 The Goulburn-Murray Water Region in North Central Victoria showing the Headworks and Extent of Irrigation. Map published by G-M Water

Research Findings Weather Systems and Weathering Cycles Wet and Dry Sequences in the Bendigo Region

Campaspe River Inflow to Lake Eppalock Decreasing annual inflow Dry Sequence 1878 to1952 Wet Sequence 1952 to 1996 Dry

Campaspe River

Campaspe River Downstream

Comparison of Wet & Dry Sequences Table 1 - A Summary of the Relationship between the Average Yearly Rainfall at Metcalfe and Inflow into Lake Eppalock. Note: 1mm of effective runoff equates to approximately 1% of reservoir fill. (Goulburn-Murray Water, 2005) PeriodAverage Yearly Rainfall at Metcalfe Average Effective Rainfall (runoff) Across Catchment Average Inflow to Lake Eppalock ML/Year Average % of Inflow to Lake Eppalock/year Wet Sequence 1952 to mm66 mm206,00066% Dry Sequence 1997 to mm21 mm65,00021% Dry Sequence 2001 to mm7mm25,0007%

Eppalock Inflows Actual v Expected Figure 4 Eppalock Inflow Actual May 2000 to October 2005 and Average Inflow Envelope for Wet Sequence 1954 – 1996 (Zero inflow for 2006 as at 8th October 2006)

Figure 5. Shows the Combined Seasonal Inflow and Drawdown on Lake Eppalock from July 1996 to July 2006: In Hindsight a Gambol that did not Payoff.

Australian Rainfall Anomalies Figure 6 Australian Rainfall Anomalies – 36 months. Departures from the 36 month mean (1961 – 1990 base period)

Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at Bendigo Table 1 Trend of Annual Rainfall Loss at Bendigo Sample Span (Years) Loss of Rainfall (mm/year)

First Prime Minister’s Briefing Figure 7 Showing the Total Average inflows into the MDB - Comparing Drought Periods. Current inflow for 2006 shown in red.

First Prime Minister’s Briefing 7 th November 2006 Figures 8a and 8b. Showing the River Murray Inflows and Diversions for an extreme dry outlook.

First Prime Minister’s Briefing 7 th November 2006 Figures 8a and 8b. Showing the River Murray Inflows and Diversions for an extreme dry outlook.

Research Findings- Global Weather Uncertainities Major Factors The level of net radiation flux reaching the earth from the sun global dimming due to air-travel global pollution of particulates smaller than 2.5 micron global warming gases due to human activity and The rapid changing of carbon sinks. I.e. loss of forests, reduction of soil carbon etc.

Research Findings- Global Weather Uncertainties Major Symptoms A weakening of trade winds melting of glaciers, permafrost, Arctic and Antarctic ice slowing of the Gulf-stream extremes in droughts, fires, floods acidification of the oceans and The maintenance of abnormally warm South China and Philippines Seas.

Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – El Nino Event La Nina Event Figure 9 Comparison of Classical El Nino and La Nina Events

Pacific Ocean Recent Trends – El Nino La Nina Figure 10 Classic paths of Cyclones resultant from either El Nino or La Nina Events

Top 10 El Nino Events Figure 11 Top 10 El Nino Events of the Twentieth Century incorporating Global Surface Mean Temperature Anomalies

Trends of Annual Rainfall Figure 13 Trend of Annual Rainfall (mm/10years)

“The Climate Roller Coaster”!

“Climate Roller Coaster” 500,000 Years Figure 17 Showing the Cyclical Traces of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Infra Red Temperature for the past years taken from the Vostok Ice Core where the Glacial- interglacial Cycling was measured. Note: Maximum CO2 reading is approximately 300ppmv current reading is approximately 360ppmv.

“Climate Roller Coaster” 100,000 years Figure 17 Showing the Cyclical Traces of Carbon Dioxide, Methane and Infra Red Temperature for the past years taken from the Vostok Ice Core where the Glacial- interglacial Cycling was measured. Note: Maximum CO2 reading is approximately 300ppmv current reading is approximately 360ppmv.

“Climate Roller Coaster” 1000 years Figure years of Northern Hemisphere Temperatures in a Degrees Centigrade.

Outline of Positive Responses and what the papers say!

What follows, Our Time Frames What the ‘papers’ say, Advantages of Biological Farming in times of soil moisture stress Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Potential for our regional industries Bio-Diesel power our region! Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for our region industries

What the ‘papers’ say

Advantages of biological farming in times of soil-moisture stress

Carbon Credits – Soil Sequestration Potential for our regional industries

Bio-Diesel power to our region!

Applicability of ‘Fodder Factories” for our region industries 1.1 tonne fodder factory/day equivalent to 40 acres of irrigated permanent pasture. 2.5 kg fodder per cow … 25% daily intake. 3.Water efficiency ratio 100 : kg barley produces 1000 kg fodder grass. 5.Indoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2 tonnes/day - $85000 upwards 6.Outdoor Fodder factory Capital cost 2 tonnes/day - $20000

And the best of luck - goodbye