Edward Tollerud (Funded by USWRP) HMT-DTC Collaboration

HMT-DTC Collaboration Goals Implementation and demonstration of new verification capabilities for high-resolution NWP Develop DTC capabilities for ensemble model prediction Data Impact Studies Impact studies of model physics and parameterizations relevant to HMT research

HMT-DTC-USWRP: Common Goals

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 Demonstration of MET-based real-time QPF verification for WRF ensemble forecasts during the HMT West Winter Exercise (10/2009-4/2010) Retrospective MODE-based analyses of Pacific atmospheric river (AR) observations and forecasts MET utilities to facilitate regionalized verification at RFC and basin scales

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009

72h48h24hSSM/I MODE Object Comparison of GFS Forecasts with SSM/I Observation for 25 February, 2004 (Clear Cut Case) Area=312 Area=369 Area=306Area=127 Wally Clark 72 h48 h24 hSSM/I

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 John Halley Gotway, Huiling Yuan, 10/1/2009

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Expand and maintain real-time QPF verification demonstration system and analyze results Develop and assess prototype MODE-based spatial verification techniques to verify Eastern Pacific Atmospheric River events in near-real-time Addition of new ensemble-based probabilistic techniques to the MET, including spatial ensemble verification prototypes

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 Conference paper(s) and report summarizing WRF ensemble model performance during HMT-West Winter exercise Added capability in MET to compute new ensemble- based probabilistic methods including the RPS and CRPS for QPF and PQPF verification Evaluation of diagnostic experiments to assess the impact of verification dataset choices on verification results

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists1.04$234.3 K Software Engineers 0.49 $84.8 K Travel $3.5 K

Tara Jensen DTC/HWT Collaboration

What is the HWT? NOAA National Severe Storms Lab (NSSL) NOAA National Severe Storms Lab (NSSL) NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) OU - Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) BRINGING RESEARCH to FORECAST OPERATIONS The mutual interests of forecasters from the SPC, researchers from NSSL, and collocated joint research partners from CIMMS inspired testbed formation. Other Collaborators

Goal:  Give forecasters first-hand look at the latest research concepts and products  Immerse researchers in the challenges, needs, and constraints of front-line forecasters Approach:  Forecast teams gather in Norman each week from late April to early June.  Each day consists of:  Daily Briefing  Evaluate Previous Day’s Forecast  Selection of Current Day’s Forecast Area  Forecasters split into 2 teams to predict Chance of Severe Wx HWT Spring Experiment Years

Motivation for DTC/HWT Collaboration One of the recommendations from the 2007 External Review of DTC Initial focus Introduction of objective evaluation into HWT Verification of storm-scale prediction ( <= 4km) for severe weather Expanded focus Evaluation of ensemble forecasts and post-processing Verification of storm-scale prediction ( <= 4km) for SPC aviation weather Provides DTC with prominent role in the direct infusion of research models and evaluation into operational environment Exploration of how forecasters can effectively use objective verification

DTC/HWT Collaboration Goals Supplement HWT Spring Experiment subjective assessments Provide objective evaluation of experimental forecasts contributed to Spring Experiment Expose the forecasters and researchers to both traditional and new approaches for evaluating forecasts Assist HWT in addressing model improvement problems and investigating other research topics

Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 Implementation of a near real-time evaluation system for 1 hr Accumulated Precipitation Composite Reflectivity Assess impact of radar assimilation on short-term forecast using both: Traditional Methods – grid to grid statistics Spatial Methods – object oriented evaluation Education and Outreach DTC staff participation during every week of Spring Experiment (SE) 2009 Presentation at WAF/NWP Conference, Poster at WRF User’s Workshop

SE 2009 Evaluation  Composite reflectivity and 1-hr Accum. Precip. Forecasts  NSSL NMQ-Q2 observed fields  3 high-resolution models  CAPS 4km SSEF control (with radar assimilation)  CAPS 4km SSEF perturbation (no radar assimilation)  HRRR 3km (different radar assimilation) Question: How does radar assimilation impact 0-12hr forecast?

RESULTS: Radar assimilation appears to improve 0-6hr skill scores Lack of clear difference in skill scores during 6-12 hr lead times suggests model physics taking over Preliminary 2009 Results Results were aggregated over Spring Experiment time period and the median values are plotted Radar 20dBZ No Radar 20dBZ

14 May 2009 Init: 00 UTC Spatial Thresh: 30dBZ No Radar Objects Forecast Field Observed Field Radar FCST OBJ OBS OBJ High Impact Display allowed HWT to identify phase and convective mode errors Still working on how to quantify objectively

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Expand evaluation to include all 20 members of the CAPS ensemble – retain evaluation of HRRR Have DTC staff available at SE to introduce methods and discuss objective evaluation Include HWT requirements in METviewer (database and display system) beta version. Generalize system architecture to allow for retrospective studies. Support HWT goals by expanding evaluation to include one or two aviation related variables.

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 Report on objective evaluation of impact of radar assimilation on 0-12hr. Install beta METviewer at HWT. Retrospective testing and evaluation system developed. DTC staff participation during each week of Spring Experiment Manuscript submitted to AMS Weather and Forecasting journal.

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists0.54$81.8 K Software Engineers0.32$50.1 K Students0.15 $7.4 K Travel $9.0 K

HWT 2008 Introduce Objective Evaluation HWT 2009 Realtime system Address scientific question HMT st Ensemble evaluation Satellite data into MET HWT 2010 Add Ensemble methods DTC METviewer HMT 2011 Refine Ensemble methods Data Impact Studies METDevelopment *Tressa Fowler discussed earlierDTCEnsembleTestbed *Zoltan Toth will discuss next etc…

Zoltan Toth and Tara Jensen DTC ENSEMBLE TESTBED (DET)

Historical Overview Global ensemble forecasting operational at NCEP since 1992 Mesoscale ensemble since 2000 Recognition of need for / value of ensembles by community NRC Report on Forecast Uncertainty – 2007 NWS response to NRC report Forecast Uncertainty (NFUSE) program & decision support initiative Tri-agency (NOAA, Navy, US Air Force) initiative National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Weather Enterprise response to NRC Report AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Forecast Uncertainty (ACUF) STRONG COMMUNITY INTEREST

National Workshop On Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction Held at NCAR, Sept Organized by DTC Well attended by ensemble community (60+ attendees) Academia, agencies, private sector, international invitees Assessed current state of operations & research related to mesoscale ensembles Invited and contributed presentations Working Group discussions aimed at developing roadmap Drawing on ongoing research (THORPEX), agency (NUOPC) & community (ACUF) planning & activities White paper being drafted Will be valuable advice & resource for DTC

Formation of DET in FY2010 Confluence of necessary ingredients Need Strong interest from both community & agencies Knowledge base Roadmap from Sept 2009 Workshop Opportunity Increase in funding for DTC from NOAA Initiative DTC Director’s Office sets planning process in motion (Oct 09)

Goal of DET “Provide an environment in which extensive testing and evaluation of ensemble-related techniques developed by the NWP community can be conducted such that the results are immediately relevant to the operational centers (e.g., NCEP/EMC and AFWA)” Initial focus on mesoscales

Major Activities for Yr-1 Form DTC Ensemble Advisory Panel (DEAP) Establish DET infrastructure – 70% effort in FY10 Codes/scripts from operational centers for Distribution to community use Use as benchmark in testing new methods developed by community Test & evaluate new methods developed by community – 30% Links with other testbeds / programs using ensemble approach

Yr-1 Task – Form DTC Ensemble Advisory Panel (DEAP) Purpose DEAP will provide advice to DET on Software and hardware infrastructure necessary and desirable for the testing of new ensemble-related methods developed by the community Selection and prioritization of ensemble-related methods to be tested by DTC prior to their potential transition to operations Proposed membership Cliff Mass (UW), Brian Colle (SUNY), Bill Gallus (Univ in Illinois), David Stauffer (Penn State Univ), Chris Snyder (NCAR), Evan Kucera (AFWA), Craig Bishop (NRL), David Bright (BPA), Tony Eckel (NWS/OST?), Jun Du (NCEP/EMC), Russ Schneider (NCEP/SPC), Mike Brennan (NCEP/TPC), Zoltan Toth (ESRL/GSD)

Required Characteristics of DET Infrastructure Compatibility with NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) Preparing for future use of ESMF by agencies Portability To serve diverse user base utilizing various computational platforms Community Different agencies DTC (limited computational resources) Modularity To facilitate testing of new community developed components against operational benchmark

Yr-1 Tasks for Infrastructure Development Ensemble configuration module Design, basic development Initial perturbations module Design, basic development Model perturbations module Design Statistical post-processing module Design Probabilistic product generation module Assess available tools; Design Verification module Assess/augment MET

Yr-1 Tasks – Test & Evaluation Develop test/evaluation protocol for Assessing scientific value of community contributions Initial assessment of readiness for transition to operations Initial testing of HMT or HWT or HFIP ensembles Engage with broader ensemble forecast user community

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 Establish DTC Ensemble Advisory Panel (DEAP) and engage in DET planning activities Define DET infrastructure requirements, review existing tools and software packages for suitability for incorporation, design ensemble modules, and define priorities for module development Complete basic development of two modules, including preliminary testing to assure functionality and portability Establish formal test and evaluation protocol for DET and demonstrate by applying to an available ensemble data set

Resource Requirements CategoryFTECost Scientists1.95$439.2 K Software Engineers1.05$183.2 K Travel$9 K Workshop / Meetings$20 K

Laurie Carson DTC & NEMS NOAA Environmental Modeling System

DTC NEMS Motivation NCEP will use the NEMS framework for their NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) capabilities GFS NMM-B FIM DTC facilitates operational and research collaborations with the goal of accelerating the transfer of new science and technology from research into operations WRF-NMM WPP (WRF Post Processor) GSI HWRF

DTC NEMS Goals Near Term Define community software goals for the NEMS modeling framework and operational model configurations Gain expertise in the NEMS framework, by participating in and assisting the on-going development, with a community support focus Long Term Support the operational NEMS to the community; Provide research results and capabilities to operational forecast systems

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Participate in the Global Interoperability Program Attended kick-off meeting Nov 5-6, Build a foundation of DTC expertise with the NEMS software

Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Define community software goals for NEMS Collaborate with EMC (Environmental Modeling Center) to: Hold a working group meeting DTC transition process for moving from WRF software infrastructure to NEMS- based packages Timing of the transition Potential overlap between WRF and NEMS with respect to community support Maintaining a connection with the broad research community. Draft a code management plan DTC NEMS operations to research (O2R) transition plan

Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010: DTC NEMS Define DTC NEMS community software goals and timeline Develop DTC expertise in NEMS software Establish DTC NEMS operations to research (O2R) transition plan

Resource Requirements Staff CategoryFTECost Scientists0.1$16.2 K Software Engineers0.75$138.9 K Travel$18 K

Analysis Ocean Wind Waves LSM IC/ens gen Ecosystem Nests Cryosphere Magnetosphere Etc. Physics (1,2,3) ESMF Utilities (clock, error handling, etc) Bias Corrector Post processor & Product Generator Verification Resolution change ESMF Superstructure (component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc) Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing Coupler1 Coupler2 Coupler3 Coupler4 Coupler5 Coupler6 Etc. Dynamics (1,2,3) Application Driver NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) (uses standard ESMF compliant software) * Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC), NOAA/GFDL 2, 3 etc: NCEP supported thru NUOPC, NASA, NCAR or NOAA institutional commitments Components are: Dynamics (spectral, FV, NMM, FIM, ARW, FISL, COAMPS…) Physics (GFS, NRL, NCAR, GMAO, ESRL, GFDL…) Atmospheric Model Chemistry (Gc,Cm) From: Mark Iredell Global Interoperability Program Kickoff Meeting November 6, 2009

NEMS Atmosphere Atmosphere DynamicsPhysics Dyn-Phy Coupler NMM-B Spectral FIM Color Key Component class Coupler class Completed Instance Under Development NAM Phy GFS Phy Simple unified atmosphere including digital filter Future Development The goal is one unified atmospheric component that can invoke multiple dynamics and physics. At this time, dynamics and physics run on the same grid in the same decomposition, so the coupler literally is very simple. ARW FVCS FISL NOGAPSWRF Phy Navy PhyCOAMPS Regrid, Redist, Chgvar, Avg, etc GFDL Phy From: Mark Iredell Global Interoperability Program Kickoff Meeting November 6, 2009