Housing Progress in Massachusetts Jobs for Massachusetts Barry Bluestone Dean, School of Social Science, Urban Affairs, and Public Policy Director, Center.

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Presentation transcript:

Housing Progress in Massachusetts Jobs for Massachusetts Barry Bluestone Dean, School of Social Science, Urban Affairs, and Public Policy Director, Center for Urban and Regional Policy Northeastern University Boston Federal Reserve Bank March 13, 2007

Massachusetts Employment Trends and Population Dynamics

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

U.S. Bureau of the Census

U.S. Census Bureau

U.S. Bureau of the Census

Where did they go?

Greater Boston Median Single Family Home Price Source: The Warren Group Publications

2005 Class A Apartment Rents Source: Forbes Magazine Calculations based on 900 Sq.Ft. Apartment

Boston $64,656 Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005” Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

Greater Boston Family Budget 4 Person Family with 2 Children  Housing Costs: 7 th Highest MSA  Child Care: 7 th Highest MSA  Health Care: 7 th Highest MSA  Personal Care: 6 th Highest MSA  Fed/State Tax: 2 nd Highest MSA  Total Cost: 1 st Highest MSA Economic Policy Institute, Family Budget Calculator, 2005 Among 304 U.S. Metropolitan Areas

Top Decile: Metro Area Cost of Living Boston $ 64,656 Washington (D.C. portion) $ 61,440 Nassau-Suffolk, NY $ 60,780 Stamford-Norwalk, CN$ 60,720 Lawrence (Mass. portion) $ 59,280 New York, NY$ 58,656 Barnstable-Yarmouth, MA $ 58,236 San Francisco, CA $ 57,624 Worcester (Mass. portion) $ 55,704 Springfield, MA$ 55,320 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN$ 54,948 Nashua, NH $ 54,852 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA$ 53,808 Oakland, CA $ 53,412 San Jose, CA $ 52,800 Pittsfield, MA $ 52,632 Rochester, MN $ 51,288 Monmouth-Ocean, NJ$ 50,736 San Diego, CA $ 50,088 Newark, NJ$ 49,992 New Haven-Meriden, CN $ 49,848 Honolulu, HI $ 49,824 Philadelphia (Pa. portion) $ 49,716 Boulder-Longmont, CO$ 49,596 Bridgeport, CN$ 49,272 Manchester, NH $ 49,152 Santa Rosa, CA$ 48,924 Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY $ 48,900 Hartford, CN$ 48,684 Trenton, NJ$ 48,576 Rochester, NY$ 48,540 Economic Policy Institute: Family Budget Calculator Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

A Tale of Two Cities Basic Budget 2 Parents, 2 Children Boston Monthly Housing$1,266 Monthly Food$ 587 Monthly Child Care$1,298 Monthly Transportation$ 321 Monthly Health Care$ 592 Monthly Other Necessity$ 500 Monthly Taxes$ 824 Monthly Total$5,388 Annual Total $64,656 Raleigh-Durham- Chapel Hill Monthly Housing$ 779 Monthly Food$ 587 Monthly Child Care$ 866 Monthly Transportation$ 358 Monthly Health Care$ 368 Monthly Other Necessity$ 369 Monthly Taxes$ 350 Monthly Total$3,677 Annual Total $ 44,124 A Tale of Two Cities Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”

Boston ($1,266) Source: Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”

The Impact of Housing Prices and Cost of Living on the Massachusetts Economy Impact on Employment Impact on Net Internal Migration

Low PriceHigh Price Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas 0.95% 2.91% 2.29% 0.86% 1.53% 0.68% -0.68% 0.12% -0.62% 1.49%

Boston MSA (-4.9%) Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas

Low CostHigh Cost Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -0.21% 0.93% -0.02% 0.84% 1.06% 0.50% 1.09% 1.98% 0.62% 2.53% Universe: 245 U.S. Metro Areas

Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census Boston MSA (-5.2%) Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

Economic Policy Institute, “Family Budget Calculator, 2005”; U.S. Bureau of the Census Universe: 304 U.S. Metro Areas

The Massachusetts Housing Pipeline A Good Start at Permitting New Housing

Housing Unit Pipeline in Greater Boston Source: U.S. Census; pre-1980 compiled by BRA Research Department

No. of Communities Approved or Estimated 40R Zoned Units Estimated 40R Affordable Units Eligible 40R Incentive Payment Potential 40R Density Bonus Payment 1 (Approved) 102,881570$2.9 M$7.8 M 2 (Filed with DHCD) 84,628937$3.9 M$13.8 M 3 (PDF grant funding) 6 N/A 4 (under local consideration) 18N/A 427,509 (minimum) 1,607 (minimu m) $7.1 Million $22.3 Million The Smart Growth 40R Housing Pipeline

Lagging “Starter” Homes

YearTotal Units Permitted Units in Single Family Structures Single Family Units as % of Total Units in 2-4 Unit Structures Units in 5+ Unit Structures ,846 8, %5741, ,662 7, %7462, ,342 7, %7012, ,701 6, %6862, ,520 6, %7642, ,121 6, %1,0935, ,556 7, %9945, ,945 7, %1,0157,660 Housing Production Up in Massachusetts … but Still a Lingering Problem for Young Families

New “Starter” Home Proposal  Proposing new legislation to encourage voluntary local zoning for modest priced “starter” homes 1,700 s.f./3 Bedroom 5-8 units per acre Affordable units at 150% of AMI State pays 100% of local school costs State local aid bonuses to encourage re-zoning and permitting Higher bonuses than Chapter 40R Payments

 Continue to encourage municipalities to adopt Chapter 40R  Work with Governor and Legislature to assure permanent funding for 40R and 40S  Develop new legislative program for “starter” homes  Develop new program for low income family rental housing using innovative financing mechanisms CHTF: 2007 Agenda