BIOMASS FUTURES: Bioenergy Use in the EU Member States – Cumulative Projections from the NREAPs and the associated implications Bogdan ATANASIU EIE/08/ 653/ June December 2011

Climate Change and Energy: EU 2020 targets 2 EU GHG: 20% reduction Renewable Energy: 20% renewable energy in final gross energy consumption Renewable in transport: 10% renewable energy BaU 2020 energy efficiency target renewable energy target 120% -20% 80% 20% Target 2020 EU final energy consumption in 2020 Energy Efficiency: 20% less energy than BaU

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 RES Directive and NREAPs Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC (RES Directive) 3 20% share of RES in gross final consumption 10% share of RES in transport

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Renewable Energy Directive 2009/28/EC (RES Directive): – Indirect energy efficiency reporting – GHG emission reduction (tbd) – Article 4: Compulsory NREAPs (tbd until 30 June 2010) – Roadmaps on H&C, electricity and transport – Progress monitoring (every 2 yrs.) RES Directive and NREAPs

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 NREAPs: state of play Only 23 NREAPs sent by the end of Oct (missing Pl, Hu, Es, Be) Some NREAPs still under improvement (i.e. UK, Ireland) Not all of them translated in English Several of them incomplete or lacking in providing enough details (i.e. Ro, Fi) Discrepancies between general RES trajectories and the declarations in the detailed tables (tables 10-12) 5

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 Bioenergy in NREAPs The main contributor to the 2020 target: 54.5% of the RES target (124.5Mtoe) by 2020 from 59% of RES (76.3Mtoe) in 2010 Complex issue raising questions on their sustainability and on their potential in reducing the GHG emissions. The contribution of biofuels produced from wastes, residues, non-food cellulosic material, and ligno-cellulosic material count twice that other biofuels 6

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Bioenergy: a complex problem 7

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/2010 RES roadmaps 8 23 NREAPs reported energy efficiency improvements: 9.72% by 2020

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Efforts in meeting the RES target 9

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Bioenergy share in RES target 10

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Bioenergy in RES electricity 11

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Bioenergy in RES H&C 12

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Bioenergy in RES Transport 13

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Biofuels article 21.2 and RES-T 14

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Bioenergy feedstock:

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Bioenergy & NREAPs: conclusions 16 For some countries the effort in reaching the RES target will be significant Bio-energy is determinant in reaching the 2020 RES target: 54.4% (17.7% in RES-E, 80% in RES-H&C, 90% in RES-T) Solid biomass: the main contributor (36% in RES), decreasing in share but increasing in absolute value – question on sustainability in some cases (i.e. forest wood burning for household heating) CHP not enough considered by several countries (also in relation with DHC); little development by 2020 in EU: 17.7% CHP and 15.5% DHC RES-T target falling short for some countries (Bg, Cy, Mt.) Biofuels art are not properly declared by all the MSs; anticipate important role in meeting the RES-T target Estimated biofuel imports: 42%

June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ June December EIE/08/653 30/4/ Thank you! IEEP is an independent not for profit institute dedicated to advancing an environmentally sustainable Europe through policy analysis, development and dissemination.