Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate A Report of NIPCC [Non-Governmental International Panel on Climate Change] Prof. S. Fred Singer University of Virginia/SEPP <singer@sepp.org> Keynote talk, March 3, 2008 International Climate Conference Marriott Marquis Hotel, Times Square, NYC

Basic Issue: Is Global Warming Human-Caused or Natural? CO2 is a greenhouse (GH) gas and is increasing Natural Climate Variation: Climate has always been warming or cooling Q: So how can one tell the cause? A: Compare calculated pattern of warming with observed pattern. Do the ‘fingerprints’ match or differ?

“The science is settled” – Al Gore But not in the way he imagined it: Global Warming is mostly of natural origin. The human contribution is not significant Therefore climate change is unstoppable We look at the warming pattern calculated from GH models and compare with the pattern measured by weather balloons

CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 1, Figure 1.3F PCM Simulations of Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Temperature Change Fig. 9: GH-model-predicted temperature trends versus latitude and altitude [this is figure 1.3F from CCSP 2006, p.25]. Note increasing trends in tropical mid-troposphere. All GH models show an amplification of temp trends with altitude. Up to about a factor 3.0 over equator at 10 km Note that 1958 was a cool year; the increase since 1979 is much smaller Also note; Little variation with latitude in surface trends. NH is about the same as SH. But warming in both polar regions

CCSP 1.1 – Chapter 5, Figure 7E Fig. 10: Observed temperature trends versus latitude and altitude [this is figure 5.7E from CCSP 2006, p.116]. Note absence of increasing trends in tropical mid-troposphere.

A more detailed view of the disparity: Douglass, Christy, Pearson, Singer - 2007 Fig. 12: Temperature trends versus altitude in the tropics [Douglass et al. 2007]. Note the disparity between modeled and observed trends.

NO significant anthropogenic warming seen in the data NIPCC vs. IPCC: What NIPCC did was to ‘connect the dots’ -- using the available information from model results and observations The same information was available to the IPCC from published work, including also from the US Government’s CCSP Report [2006] But IPCC chose to ignore these facts, because they conflicted with the conclusion that GW is anthropogenic

Two further questions Q: Why do climate models over-estimate the warming effects of greenhouse gases? A: The models ignore ‘negative feedbacks’ from clouds and likely also from water vapor. Q: Then what are the principal causes of climate variations (on decadal time scales)? A: Likely variability of solar activity (solar wind and magnetic fields affecting cosmic rays – and thereby cloudiness)

Solar-Activity Changes are the Main Cause of Climate Change Stalagmites provide a convenient record: The stalagmite record shows a remarkably close correlation between C-14 and O-18 over a period of more than 3,000 years Carbon-14 is generated in the atmosphere by cosmic rays and is a proxy for solar activity Oxygen-18 is a proxy for temperature

Fig. 19: Values of Carbon-14 [a solar proxy] and Oxygen-18 [temperature proxy] versus time, from a stalagmite in Oman [Neff et al 2001]. The lower graph shows a particular well-resolved time interval. Source: Neff 2001 [Neff et al 2001]

What About Sea Level Rise? Predictions of the IPCC – from 1990 to 2007 --have decreased dramatically. Their 2007 value is 18 - 59 cm by 2100. James Hansen (and Al Gore) predict 600 cm! Our best value is 18 - 20 cm -- based on the absence of acceleration during the 20th century But since 18 cm/century rise has been ongoing for centuries, we expect no incremental rise in SL – no matter what the cause of warming.

Sea Level Rise to 2100 Max 367 124 77 43 59 600 140 20 Min 10 3 11 14 H Fig. 21: Estimates of sea level rise from IPCC reports of 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007. Note the strong reduction in expected maximum rise, presumably based on better data. Also shown are the expected SL rise values of Rahmstorf, Hansen, and Singer. The ongoing rate of rise in recent centuries has been 18 cm per century.   IPCC 1990 IPCC 1995 IPCC 2001 2007 Draft IPCC 2007 Hansen (H) Rahmst. (R) Singer (S) Max 367 124 77 43 59 600 140 20 Min 10 3 11 14 18 50

CO2 Mitigation is Not Needed Cap & Trade: pointless, political, expensive Ethanol: ineffective and wasteful; subsidized Wind, Solar: marginally useful, with subsidies Carbon Capture: not needed and very costly. Instead: Generate Electric power from secure and low-cost coal/nuclear: phase out natural gas and use as transportation fuel, feedstock, etc