Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/ Climate Change (CC) Impacts & Adaptation Alistair Hunt Department of Economics University of Bath UK +44(0)

Overview of Climate Adaptation presentation CC impacts as an environmental hazard CC impacts in the ENPI East Regional context Outline of Assessment Method Results –Qualitative –Quantitative Conclusions: Next steps for policy use Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau2

CC Impacts – Environmental Hazard CC increasingly recognised as significant hazard in all ENPI East countries. Accumulating evidence showing currently observed CC impacts in many sectors, including water resources, coastal regions, human health, forestry, agriculture, critical infrastructure and ecosystems. Impacts are cross-sectoral and projected to increase in future time periods Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau3

Climate change adaptation Adaptation: changes to natural sytems or human practices in response to actual/expected climatic change or its effects. Example of adapation measure in agriculture: adoption of crop varieties that tolerate better drought or water CC mitigation: practices that reduce the probability of climate change by reducing atmospheric concentrations of GHG, e.g. cleaner energy Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 4

CC Impacts – Drivers GHG (CO2, and equiv.) emissions from fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, agriculture and industrial practices (+ natural phenomena) result in atmospheric warming: Global average temperatures risen since mid-20 th century Global sea-level rise (SLR) observed to date Increase in frequency of some extreme weather events observed Uncertainty remains in CC modelling Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau5

CC Impacts: Overview Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 6

ENPI-East regional Context Regional climate effects include: –Mean temperature (0.41C/decade from 1979) up to + 5.5C by 2100 –frequency of extreme weather events, particularly intense rainfall events, has increased in recent decades: floods –Summer rainfall decreasing –Global sea level rise Identified trends likely to be exacerbated by future climate change Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau7

Case Study: Azerbaijan Sea level rise: Caspian Sea coastline vulnerable to fluctuations in water levels e.g. Absheron Peninsula, heavily populated. Water resource availability and scarcity: availability is forecasted to fall by around 25% by 2030 Increased risk of flooding: both inland and along the Caspian Sea coast Increased frequency and severity of high temperature events: most significant in urban heat islands Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau8

ENPI East regional context Impacts: Multi-sectoral; mainly negative; predominantly in urban areas, where residential areas close to industry Trends: exacerbation of those observed to date, though uncertainty over decades to 2100 since rate and extent of CC not known Previous studies in other world regions, plus ENPI national studies, show significant benefits of climate impact reductions by implementing measures to reduce impacts = climate change adaptation Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau9

Project Method (1) Benefits assessed under the project: those resulting from adaptive actions to 2020 and future decades. The selected CC impacts are those selected as priorities by project experts; no comprehensive coverage of all potential impacts Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau10

Method (2) Qualitative assessment –Describe various forms of impacts resulting from CC and of possible actions to reduce the impacts –Categorise benefits of adaptation actions in terms of: Economic Social Environmental Health –Data from in-country reviews & other assessments Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau11

Method (3) Quantitative assessment –Data on historical analogues of extreme weather events likely to become more frequent May be available from media reports and monitoring/emergency service agencies –Modelled impacts and benefits of adaptation action: from existing analyses and new estimates of effectiveness of adaptation measures Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau12

Method (4) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 13

Summary of Identified Climate Change Impacts: ENPI East Countries Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 14 Climate Variable Direct Impact (Sectoral/Cross-sectoral)ArmeniaAzerbaijanBelarusGeorgiaMoldovaRussiaUkraine TemperatureMeansEcosystemsXXXX EnergyX TemperatureVariabilityHealthXXXXX PrecipitationMeansWater - resourcesXXXXX Water - desertificationXX Water - AgricultureXXXX PrecipitationVariabilityForest fireX Infrastructure/FloodsXXXXX Sea Level RiseMeanCoastsXXXX

Results from the BAs for ENPI East countries (1): qualitative Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau15 Environmental benefitsDescription Ecosystem condition improvements - Development of protected corridors for species migration is being promoted on a regional basis. - Pro-active forest management strategies being developed to protect diversity of wood species and composition of forests; as well as the accessibility of forests for population recreation purposes and role of forests in fire control.

Results (2) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau16 Health benefitsDescription Lower incidence of acute health impacts - The introduction of heat warning systems in urban areas should be effective in reducing the mortality and morbidity consequences of vulnerability to heat- waves. - Disease monitoring systems may be used to contain the spread of vector-borne diseases that may spread as a consequence of flood events or changes in temperature vectors.

Results (3) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau17 Social benefitsDescription Improved quality of life Reduced health effects Investments in water, soil and coastal restoration for adaptation purposes may help to improve community well-being and provide new opportunities for employment and recreation.

Results (4) Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau18 Economic benefitsDescription Protect current production. - Adaptation to threats to agricultural yield from water scarcity, through more efficient management practices would result in some protection of farm incomes and local economies. - Increase in demand for products and processes that result in greater adaptation, e.g. Investment in coastal defence systems boosts construction sector. Exploit new opportunities Increase in tourism and associated expenditures in local areas. These tourism benefits will be realised if, for example, coastal protection and management reduces the threat to coastal amenities

Case study: Moldova – qualitative benefits Benefits of adapting to reduced water resource availability - from reduced water use or investment into more secure supply - can be found in facilitating its uses. Social/economic benefits: –Increased availability secures growing & marketing of food. –Employment opportunities in agricultural sector maintained –Considering the impact of locally grown goods on food prices, the maintained yields of crops secure a competitively and socially desirable pricing. Health benefits: Food security/clean drinking water sources lead to an improved health and the avoidance of malnutrition and related diseases. Positive environmental benefits in slowing down land erosion Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau19

Summary of Identified Benefits from CC Adaptation: ENPI East Countries BenefitSource of Benefit ArmeniaAzerbaijanBelarusGeorgiaMoldovaRussiaUkraine Health Heatwave - respiratory/cardio morbidity/mortality X X X Environmental Coastal protection - wetlands X Forest protectionX X Biodiversity Plans implementation XX X EconomicInvestment in flood protectionXX XX Coastal protection - salinisation Investment in water storage &efficiency inc. AgX XXX Energy savings X Agricultural benefits - temperatures X X Tourism benefits - temperatures X X SocialCoastal restoration - community X Arising from other categories (Ec., Soc., and Env)X X X Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 20

Quantitative benefits: Case Study Armenia: Projected volume of snow 7-11% by 2030, water balance of Lake Sevan will fall significantly. river flow will reduce by 0.6 billion cubic meters by areas needing irrigation will expand, otherwise: a decline of 8-14% in the yields of the main agriculture crops is projected (9-13% for cereals, 7-14% for vegetables, 8-10% for potato and 5-8% for fruits). Benefits of investment in effective irrigation (adaptation measure): agricultural yield losses prevented Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau21

Conclusions (1) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: –Water resource use (domestic, industry, agriculture) Resulting from, e.g. technological measures including: –reduction of losses in the irrigation and drinking-household water supply system through repairs of the systems and pipelines; –accumulation of moisture (water) in irrigated fields through storage of snow or snow melt water; –replenishment of moisture through early spring sowing of crops in rows, deepening irrigation ditches and using polyethylene covers Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau22

Conclusions (2) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: –Coastal areas (settlements, infrastructure, ecosystems) Resulting from, e.g. –construction and maintenance of coastal protection measures –Appropriate land use zoning Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 23

Conclusions (3) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: –Areas of flood vulnerability ((property, infrastructure, human health, agriculture) Resulting from, e.g. Investment in higher dikes Appropriate land use zoning Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 24

Conclusions (4) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Eastern ENPI countries likely in: Urban Heat Islands (health risks of heat-waves) –Resulting from, e.g. Heat alert systems implementation Awareness raising re. need for continual hydration Investment in cool rooms Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau 25

Conclusions (5) CC Adaptation Benefits exacerbate those identified in other parts of BA Significant uncertainty in each part of the impact pathway ( in climatic variable –exposure - impact) BA project under-estimates since does not include all CC Impacts Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau26

Recommendations Dissemination of these results should raise awareness and add impetus to need for increased planned adaptation Further country-specific analysis should be complemented by looking at costs and benefits effects of planned adaptation over vulnerable populations Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau27

Outstanding questions What do you think are the best ways of using these results in the ENPI-East region and in your respective countries in particular? What additional information would you find helpful in interpreting and disseminating these results? Final Project Event:ENPI-East, Chisinau28

Thank you for your attention Project Analysis for ENPI countries of social an economic benefits of enhanced environment protection (DCI-ENV/2009/ )