Analysis for ENPI countries of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/ Climate Change (CC) Impacts & Adaptation Alistair Hunt Department of Economics University of Bath UK +44(0)

Overview of Climate Adaptation presentation CC impacts as an environmental hazard CC impacts in the ENPI South Regional context Outline of Method Results –Qualitative –Quantitative Conclusions: Next steps for policy use Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels2

CC Impacts – Environmental Hazard CC increasingly recognised as significant hazard in all ENPI South countries. Accumulating evidence showing currently observed CC impacts in many sectors, including water resources and coastal regions, as well as human health, forestry, agriculture, critical infrastructure and ecosystems. Impacts are cross-sectoral and projected to increase in future time periods Adaptation: adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual/expected climatic change or its effects Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels3

CC Impacts – Climate Drivers GHG (CO2, and equiv.) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and agriculture result in atmospheric warming: Global average temperatures risen since mid- 20 th century Global sea-level rise (SLR) observed to date Increase in frequency of some extreme weather events observed Uncertainty remains in CC modelling Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels4

CC Impacts: Overview Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels 5

Regional Context Regional climate effects include: –Mean temperature (0.3C/decade from 1979) up to + 5.5C by 2100 –frequency of extreme weather events, particularly intense rainfall event, has increased in recent decades –Summer rainfall decreasing –SLR Identified trends likely to be exacerbated Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels6

Case Study: Israel Sea level rise: A one meter increase in sea level will flood meter wide belt more than half of the length of the Israeli coastline. Water resource availability and scarcity: availability is forecast to fall by around 25% by end of century. Human health: heat burdens, may harm the elderly, the ill and workers exposed to heat particularly in the coastal zone, where population is concentrated, and where humidity levels are already high. Ecosystems: Spatial movement northward in distribution of Mediterranean species and replacement by desert ecosystems, which will migrate from Negev Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels7

Regional Context Impacts: Multi-sectoral; mainly –ve. Trends: exacerbation of those observed to date though uncertainty over decades to 2100 Previous studies in other world regions, plus ENPI national studies, show significant benefits of climate impact reductions Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels8

Project Method (1) Benefits assessed under the project: those resulting from adaptive actions to 2020 and future decades. The selected CC impacts are those selected as priorities by country teams; not comprehensive coverage of all potential impacts Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels9

Method (2) Qualitative assessment –Describe various forms of impacts resulting from CC –Categorise benefits in terms of: Economic Social Environmental Health –Data from in-country reviews & other assessments Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels10

Method (3) Quantitative assessment –Data on historical analogues of extreme weather events likely to become more frequent –Modelled impacts and benefits of adaptation action: from existing analyses Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels11

Method (4) Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels 12

Summary of Identified Climate Change Impacts: ENPI South Countries Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels 13 Climate Variable Direct Impact (Sectoral/ Cross-sectoral)AlgeriaEgyptIsraelJordanLeb.nMoroccoOPT Syria Tunisi a Temp.MeansEcosystems XX X Energy Temp.VariabilityHealthXX X Precip.nMeansWater - resourcesXXXX XXX Water - desertificationX XXX Water - AgricultureXXXX XX X Precip.nVariabilityForest fire XX X Infrastructure/ FloodsX X X Sea Level RiseMeanCoasts XX XXXXX

Results from the BAs for ENPI South countries (1): qualitative Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels14 Environmental benefits Description Ecosystem condition improvements Pro-active forest management strategies being developed to protect diversity of wood species and composition of forests; as well as the accessibility of forests for population recreation purposes and role of forests in fire control. Conservation efforts will ensure that species, habitats and ecosystems are maintained. Flood and coastal management practices introduced in response to climate change will also help protect vulnerable habitats.

Results (2) Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels15 Health benefitsDescription Lower incidence of acute health impacts - The introduction of heat warning systems in urban areas should be effective in reducing the mortality and morbidity consequences of vulnerability to heat- waves. - Disease monitoring systems may be used to contain the spread of vector-borne diseases that may spread as a consequence of flood events or changes in temperature vectors.

Results (3) Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels16 Social benefitsDescription Improved quality of life Reduced health effects Investments in water, soil and coastal restoration for adaptation purposes may help to improve community well-being and provide new opportunities for employment and recreation.

Results (4) Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels17 Economic benefitsDescription Protect current production. - Adaptation to threats to agricultural yield from water scarcity, through more efficient management practices would result in some protection of farm incomes and local economies. - Increase in demand for products and processes that result in greater adaptation, e.g. Investment in coastal defence systems boosts construction sector. Exploit new opportunities Increase in tourism and associated expenditures in local areas. These tourism benefits will be realised if, for example, coastal protection and management reduces the threat to coastal amenities

Case study: Morocco Benefits to adapting to water resource availability - from reduced water use or investment into more secure supply - can be found in all its uses. Increased availability secures growing & marketing of food. Employment opportunities in agricultural sector maintained Considering the impact of locally grown goods on food prices, the maintained yields of crops secure a competitively and socially desirable pricing. Food security/clean drinking water sources lead to an improved health and the avoidance of malnutrition and related diseases. Positive environmental benefits in slowing down land erosion Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels18

Summary of Identified Benefits from CC Adaptation: ENPI South Countries Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels 19 BenefitSource of BenefitAlgeriaEgyptIsraelJordanLeb.nMorocco OPTSyriaTunisia HealthHeatwave - respiratory/cardio XX Diseases e.g. malaria XX Environ. Coastal protection - wetlands & coral reefs XX XXXX Forest protectionX X X Biodiversity Plans implementation X Economic Investment in water infrastructure - economic multiplier effectsX Coastal protection - salinisation X X Investment in water storage &efficiency inc. Agricultural prodn.XXXXXXXX Coastal protection - infrastructureXXX X XXX Tourism benefits - coastal/water resource protectionXX X SocialCoastal restoration - communityX Arising from other categories (Ec., Soc., and Env) XX X X

Quantitative benefits: Case Study Jordan: Monetary benefits associated with forest fire avoided –Area of forest fire avoided in 2020 is 10% ±5% of the level of forest cover in 2008, i.e. between 4,150 and 12,450 hectares. –Mid-point benefits are estimated to be PPP 2.25 million in 2020 prices equivalent to 0.01% of 2020 GDP Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels20

Conclusions (1) Benefits of reducing CC Impacts in Southern ENP countries likely in: –Water resource use (domestic, industry, agriculture) –Coastal areas (settlements, infrastructure, ecosystems) –Areas of flood vulnerability ((property, infrastructure, human health, agriculture) –Urban Heat Islands (health risks of heat-waves) Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels21

Conclusions (2) CC Benefits exacerbate those identified in other parts of BA Significant uncertainty in each part of the impact pathway ( in climatic variable –exposure - impact) BA Under-estimates since does not include all CC Impacts Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels22

Recommendations Dissemination of these results should raise awareness and add impetus to need for increased planned adaptation Further country-specific analysis should be complemented by looking at costs and distributional effects of planned adaptation Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels23

Outstanding questions How can these results be developed to inform sectoral and cross-sectoral adaptation plans in the ENPI-South region and in your respective countries in particular? What are the priorities in researching and planning responses to climate change in the ENPI-South region? Final Project Event:ENPI-South, Brussels24

Thank you for your attention Project Analysis for ENPI countries of social an economic benefits of enhanced environment protection (DCI-ENV/2009/ )