North Slope Rapid Ecoregional Assessment Final Presentation to NSB Planning Commission September 24, 2015

Contents of this presentation Who we areWho we are Who we collaborate withWho we collaborate with Project goalsProject goals Key take home messagesKey take home messages Moving forwardMoving forward

University of Alaska Alaska Natural Heritage Program (AKNHP - UAA) Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER - UAA) Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning (SNAP - UAF) Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab (UAF) Margaret J. King & Associates BLM Alaska State Office National Operation Center Arctic Field Office Project Team

Review Board BLM (Arctic Field Office, Alaska State Office, Fairbanks District Office, National Operations Center) BLM (Arctic Field Office, Alaska State Office, Fairbanks District Office, National Operations Center) FWS (Arctic NWR, Arctic LCC) FWS (Arctic NWR, Arctic LCC) USGS (Alaska Science Center, Climate Science Center) USGS (Alaska Science Center, Climate Science Center) NPS (Central Alaska Network I&M) NPS (Central Alaska Network I&M) State of Alaska (ADF&G, ADCCED, DNR) State of Alaska (ADF&G, ADCCED, DNR) North Slope Borough (Wildlife Department) North Slope Borough (Wildlife Department) North Slope Science Initiative North Slope Science Initiative US Arctic Research Commission US Arctic Research Commission Michigan Tech University Michigan Tech University University of Alaska Fairbanks University of Alaska Fairbanks

What is an REA? Broadly speaking, REAs try to… Identify and map species and habitats in the environment and describe how they are changing over time, and what may be causing that change Identify and map species and habitats in the environment and describe how they are changing over time, and what may be causing that change Collect, compile, and synthesize data in a month window to provide a regional snap shot of conditions. They are rapid! Collect, compile, and synthesize data in a month window to provide a regional snap shot of conditions. They are rapid! Focus on large areas and look at the really big picture instead of a particular lake or river Focus on large areas and look at the really big picture instead of a particular lake or river Find data gaps critical to our understanding of the region. Find data gaps critical to our understanding of the region.

Land Status

Assessment Components 20 Regionally Important Management Questions Aquatic and Terrestrial Species and Habitats Fire, Invasive Species, Permafrost, Development

Nine Terrestrial Habitats Tidal marsh Coastal plain moist tundra Coastal plain wetland Sand sheet wetland Sand sheet moist tundra Foothills tussock tundra Alpine dwarf shrub Tidal marsh Marine beach, barrier islands, and spits

Nine Terrestrial Habitats Tidal marsh Coastal plain moist tundra Coastal plain wetland Sand sheet wetland Sand sheet moist tundra Foothills tussock tundra Alpine dwarf shrub Tidal marsh Marine beach, barrier islands, and spits

Three Aquatic Habitats and Five Fish Species Deep connected lakes Shallow connected lakes Large and small streams Dolly Varden Broad whitefish Burbot Chum salmon Arctic grayling

Invasive Species Development Change Agents Permafrost Fire

January Temperature – Long-term Warming Winter warming will be greatest in the east, with a shift of about 8°F by the 2060s.

September Precipitation – Reduced Snowfall Precipitation more likely to fall as rain than snow

Invasive Species Currently highly resistant Increased possibility of invasion by cold- tolerant non-native species

Human Footprint Future human footprint estimates from North Slope Science Initiative's (NSSI) scenarios project Overall landscape condition very high Significant data gap

Cumulative Change Change Agents: January Temp July Temp Annual precipitation Permafrost Active Layer Relative flammability Human footprint Invasive species vulnerability

Warming Impacting Arctic Foxes Change in mean annual temperature from within modeled distribution of Arctic fox. Warmer temperatures = less snow in late winter Less prey Increase competition with red fox

Increased Shrub Cover Increased air temperature and precipitation likely to increase shrub cover Increased shrubs may increase food availability for herbivores like moose Increased shrub cover may increase likelihood of fire

Products Available and Pending Draft final products (available now!) Draft final products (available now!) report/#content report/#content Final stakeholder newsletters (Sept. 2015) Final stakeholder newsletters (Sept. 2015) Final report and all data on BLM national page “REA Data Portal” (Spring 2016) ml Final report and all data on BLM national page “REA Data Portal” (Spring 2016) ml ml ml

Jamie Trammell (907) , Scott Guyer (907) , Questions? Observations? Comments?

Caribou Length of the growing season will increase by about 2 weeks May increased nutrient value of forage with peak lactation increasing calf survival May result in calves born after most of food has emerged, reducing calf survival