New Zealand Market Update 1Q 2015. NZ’s economic growth story Source: RBA, RBNZ OCR cut by 25bps to 2.25% “In Australia the available information suggests.

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Presentation transcript:

New Zealand Market Update 1Q 2015

NZ’s economic growth story Source: RBA, RBNZ OCR cut by 25bps to 2.25% “In Australia the available information suggests that growth is continuing at a below-trend pace, with domestic demand growth overall quite weak. As a result, the unemployment rate has gradually moved higher over the past year.” Glenn Stevens, 3 Feb 2015, RBA Govenor OCR No change at 3.50% “Annual economic growth in New Zealand is above 3 percent, supported by rising construction activity and household incomes. The housing market is showing signs of picking up, particularly in Auckland.” Graeme Wheeler, 29 January 2015, RBNZ Govenor

New Zealand on the World Stage Source: Various Google Images

As well as some really important people

Economic Indicators Continued expansion in Domestic Trading Activity and GDP Source: StatsNZ, NZIER, Colliers International Research

Economic Indicators Further employment growth Source: StatsNZ, NZIER, Colliers International Research

Economic Indicators Population grows Source: StatisticsNZ, NZIER, Colliers International Research

Auckland leads the way Source: StatsNZ, Colliers International Research

Investors confident, but cautious Source: Colliers International Research Commercial property confidence* weather map 31% 63% -25% 20% 23% -3% 49% -15% 10% -1% 61% 48% * Net % 31%

Investor Confidence Source: Colliers International Research

Investor Confidence Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, and Hamilton Source: Colliers International Research

Optimism is growing Source: Colliers International Research

Vacancy Indicators Different locations, different drivers Source: Colliers International Research National Vacancy Rates & Trends Location & Sector Current Vacancy Rate Forecast Auckland CBD Office8.2%Down Auckland Metropolitan Office8.9%Down Auckland Industrial2.9%Down Auckland Retail4.6%Stable Wellington Office11.4%Up Wellington Industrial5.6%Down Wellington Retail9.8%Down Christchurch Industrial2.0%Stable Dunedin Office14.5%Stable Dunedin Retail8.0%Stable

Different drivers dictate future performance Source: Colliers International Research

Landlords lock in rental growth Source: Colliers International Research

TERA Survey Greater need for higher NBS rating Source: Colliers International Research

Retail Investors Less Optimistic Source: Colliers International Research

Seven year slog ends Retail sales back on track Source: StatsNZ, NZIER, Colliers International Research

Source: Auckland Council, StatsNZ, Colliers International Research *Usually Resident Population from Census 2013 Area Units Retail Indicators More retail space of all types needed – an Auckland example

Retail Indicators Paymark Retail Sales year to December 2014 versus year to December 2013 Source: Paymark, Colliers International Research

Industrial Land Values Comparison Source: Colliers International Research

New Zealand transaction volumes strong All price levels (2014 Provisional) Source: Colliers International, CoreLogic Excludes $1.3 billion of GIC joint venture purchases with Goodman and Scentre (Westfield)

Recent Sales – Office 450 Queen Street, Auckland Central $27.5m - 8.5% AECOM, Auckland Central $68m – 8% Lumley Centre, Auckland Central $146m, 7.08% SAP Tower, 151 Queen St, AKL $97m – 7.50% Albert St, Auckland $40m – 5.95% 18 Sale Street, Auckland Central $10.5m – 7.03%

Recent Sales – Retail 160 Ponsonby Rd, Ponsonby $6m – 6.2% 568 Great North Road, Grey Lynn $1,475,000 – 4.6% Unit R3, Constellation Dr, North Shore $730,000 – 6.7% Waitakere Mega Centre $45.75m - c8.5% ASB Orewa, Orewa $2.9m – 6.11% (passing) 4065 Great North Rd, Kelston $2.017m – 6.8%

Investment Sector Total Returns, Asset Allocations Source: IPD & Colliers International Research Note: Direct property returns based on PCNZ / IPD Index * as at March 2014

26 Source: Colliers International Research Workplace report Office density by private and public sector

Disclaimer Whilst all care has been taken to provide reasonably accurate information within this presentation, Colliers International cannot guarantee the validity of all data and information utilised in preparing this research. Accordingly Colliers International New Zealand Ltd, do not make any representations of warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of completeness of the content contained herein and no legal liability is to be assumed or implied with respect thereto.